Surprising Lay Method

[michaelg]

For the past 18 days (had too much time on my hands) I've been testing a Bet method which seemed logical, but from day 1 it appeared that it might turn out to be a Lay method, and the results so far have continued to support this.

The rules are:

1) Under $3.00 in the pre-post (Telegraph) market.
2) Won at its last start.

There have been 70 selections for 55 successes and 15 accidents. The 55 success translates to 52.25 units, and the 15 accidents show a total NSW TAB liability of 19.80 units. Even if this liability was generously doubled to allow for Betfair's superior prices, then the profit would not be unacceptable to some people.

There were 2 selections in one race, I couldn't decide if to record both or not to touch the race but I decided against doing the latter. One of them won paying the higest accident in the system to date of $4.20 - ************!!! And there was another selection that started at $10 on the TAB so I did not record it - it was unplaced.

To date it has been successful with all races, regardless of class of race, distance, condition of track, etc. I am surprised how many of these odds-on selections were beaten.

If anyone's interested, today's selections are:

Geelong
4/1

Mackay
3/4
5/1

I haven't layed any of the selections and I won't do so today because the only logical, but weak, explanation I can think of is that the extra weight allocated to last start winners adversely affects them. However, the most likely explanation is that reality will catch up and that the method will fail sooner or later.

[jose]

A lay method you say M. ??
It's tuff to get 'em beat isn't it...you would think it would be a cinch, but alas.

[stugots]

michaelg, might be worth having a look at the weight differences that start to this, suspect it will provide a helpful filter

[stugots]

& i just noticed the forum curse is still well & alive

[michaelg]

Yes, the Forum Curse struck on the very first day.

In spite of that I might start laying them tomorrow, just out of curiousity and a gut feeling.

[Bhagwan]

Here's another Lay plan based on Winner Last Start

Must be LSW

Including Resumers.

Target TAB's Nos. 4,5,6,7.

10+ runners

17+ Days Last Start

Price $5.50-12.00

Bet 1.00 per 150.00 bank.


Past result last 2 years, using Online System Creator.

95% success rate
60% Profit.

Make Gooood Money!

[Bhagwan]

Tues Result 7/9/10
4 from 4
100% success
Made goood money.

I feel the 17+ Days Last start Win appears to be a strong rule & maybe could reinforce Michael's Plan.

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan, interesting method.

Doesn't the Online Builder provide results only for Saturday racing, and also only for the 4 major states? If so, then some Saturday and mid-week racing may have a different outcome? Have you done any lay betting on the method?

I'll probably be laying my method from today. If so, I'll be monitoring the amount of days from last start as there is logic in your suggestion. However, I don't expect too many LSW at under $3 that have not run for at least 17 days. But I'll see what happens.

[Shaun]

Here's another Lay plan based on Winner Last Start

Must be LSW

Including Resumers.

Target TAB's Nos. 4,5,6,7.

10+ runners

17+ Days Last Start

Price $5.50-12.00

Bet 1.00 per 150.00 bank.


Past result last 2 years, using Online System Creator.

95% success rate
60% Profit.

Make Gooood Money!
I ran this via my data base i got 8 selections 1 win in past 10 years.
Thats what i call dedication to your system following this baby.

[TWOBETS]

That can't be right Shaun? How can there only have been 8 selections in ten years and yet 4 of them were last tuesday? Surely sumfin ain't korrekt.

[stugots]

michaelg, just some thoughts -

i notice one the races yesterday had only 6 starters, maybe eliminate those with less than 8 starters?

& from my records those starting within 25m of their last start distance have a high win s/r, so maybe back those while laying the rest?

[michaelg]

Stugots, when I tested the method over the 18 day period there were quite a few qualifying races under 8 starters, which is not surprising because generally the shorter the price of the fave then the smaller the amount of starters - almost all were beaten.

I didn't check the distance of its last start because the smiles kept on coming. I would assume this would be reflected in the pre-post price. However its something I will now look at.

Two selections today:

Belmont 2/1 (unchanged distance)
Belmont 5/4 (100 metres shorter than last start)

[michaelg]

Belmont R2 no.1 was unchanged in distance - it was a $2.10 accident.

Belmont R5 no.4 is increasing (not decreasing) in distance by 100 metres. Hopefully this will make the difference.

[Bhagwan]

Wed 5/9/10
Results
7 from 8

+1.8 Pts prof

[Bhagwan]

Hi Shaun,
I feel something needs double checking there somewhere.

It doesnt look right, especially for 10 years.

I had hundres of selections.

[michaelg]

Yesterday there was one accident from the two selections for a loss of 0.15 units. The selection that had a 100 metre difference from last start was beaten.

Today's selections are:

Rocky
3/3 (no change in distance)
5/3 (300 metre increase)
6/4 (100 metre increase)

[stugots]

interesting that -

3/3 - lost - uni $2.7 - approx bf sp $2.9
5/3 - won - uni $5.2 - approx bf sp $5.5
6/4 - lost - uni $3.5 - approx bf sp $4.5

racing making as much sense (to me) as it usually does, perhaps only lay when can obtain price <$5, maybe $4.5?

[stugots]

assume ar5 1 sayahailmary was a selection michaelg? just had a very nice collect laying that one

[michaelg]

Yes, it was. It would be a brave person to lay it, but anything can and does happen in racing, and will continue to do so.

I'm slightly behind at the moment with the method.

The four remaining selections are:

Rosehill 6/4
Gold Coast 7/2
Bairnsdale 6/5
Toowoomba 3/2

[stugots]

duno if "brave" is the word, but reminds me i'm alive those types of finishes:)

maybe proven wrong but defiantly looks to me to be something in those runners starting either greater or less than their last start winning distance, which is what convinced me to have a reasonable go at sayahailmary, time will tell i suppose.

[michaelg]

I found it difficult to lay mainly because whenever Lindop rides a fave it very often runs well. I wonder if her instructions were to lead or was it her initative, as the distance was 1,600.

[lomaca]

Belmont R5 no.4 is increasing (not decreasing) in distance by 100 metres. Hopefully this will make the difference.In case someone is putting too much faith into the effect of distance change, I checked it over a million races and the results are, to say the least inconclusive.

I never tested it myself before, just took it as gospel.
To be blunt about it, I think using distance change as a criteria is bunkum.

Have look at this text file.

What you see is the ratio between the loss and number of races in that range.
The lower the number the better. The smallest number of races was over 5000 in a range the average around 60K to 100K so it's enough to be meaningful, except it doesn't make sense.

Good luck

[michaelg]

Thanks, lomaca.

The results are both surprising and disappointing, because I've seen one or two methods from our favourite magazine have filters about increasing/decreasing from last start. One would have thought there could be merit there but maybe the trainer knows best.


I've now looked at another another angle, for both Betting and Laying.

Bet - the selection must have won or either ran second at its second-last start, unbroken by a spell. Of course it must also have won its last start and is under $3 in the Tele p-p market.

Over the past 3 days there have been 11 such selections for 5 winners for a total return of $15.00 (NSW TAB divvies) and 8 placegetters for a return of $10.50.

Lay - if the last 2 starts aren't 1,1 or 2,1.

Over the past 3 days there have been 8 such selections for 2 accidents and 6 smiles. I actually layed both so the total liability is realistic, and the profit was 2.42 units.

No Bet selections today. The Lay selections are:

Bendigo 8/1
Queanbeyan 7/4
Sun Coast 6/1
Sale 5/6
Kalgoorlie 6/1.

Here's hoping.

[lomaca]

Thanks, lomaca.

The results are both surprising and disappointing, because I've seen one or two methods from our favourite magazine have filters about increasing/decreasing from last start. One would have thought there could be merit there but maybe the trainer knows best.

The previous test was done by starting price, I done a second one, only taking account of win and place positions., ie finished first to third.

In this test the same distance runners have a distinct advantage of about 4%.

The up or down in distance is still the same inconclusive outcome, if one really wants to favor one or the other, probably the down in distance looks a bit better, but overall, the difference is so small and random between ranges (I used 25m ranges) that I could not be bothered.

Better to rely on the distance ability of the horse.

Good luck

[stugots]

In this test the same distance runners have a distinct advantage of about 4%.



& when combined with sp?

had another good day today with my own modified method of michaelg's plan, bit of fun, love laying those shorties that dont win, god knows backed enough of em over the journey:)

[michaelg]

Stugots, I also had a good day. Yesterday's 4 selections (one was scratched) were beaten for a profit of 3.80 units.

One Lay selection today:
Gundagai R3 no.6 ($1.80 fave).

[stugots]

also looks like the only selection for me today, good luck:)

[michaelg]

Yesterday's selection won for a loss of 1.06 units.

One Lay selectioon today:

W'beal R3 no.6


I'm betting these:

Nowra 1/3
Townsville 4/3
Townsville 5/4

[Bonecrusher]

Hey guys,


Can you compile an overall tally (weeks/months etc) for we forumites following your success in one of these posts (edited 1st post maybe?)

ta

[michaelg]

Bonecrusher,

the testing period for both systems was only three days and the results were:

Bet system - 11 selections for 5 winners for a return of $15.00.

Lay system - 6 smiles from 8 selections for a profit of 2.42 units.

Then I started laying the system on Sunday (and yesterday) - there were 5 selections for 1 accident giving a profit of 2.72 units. Over the five days there's been a total of 13 selections for a profit of 5.14 units.

And today is the first day I'll be betting the system.

Not much of a history.

[Bonecrusher]

Not much of a history.
No. But you're about to make some my friend!

;)

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole Lay selection was beaten for a profit of 0.95 units.

Two today:

Sandown
6/3

Morphetville
8/1

There's now been 5 smiles from 6 selections for a profit of 3.67 units.


One Bet selection

Kalgoorlie
5/7

[lomaca]

There is some merit in last start finishing position as a selection criteria, but "Never bet on first up horses" proved to be just a myth.

ratio = (money won - number of qualifying runs) / number of qualifying runs
The smaller the number the better.

0* -0.55498
9 -0.51134
8 -0.51197
7 -0.49817
6 -0.48749
5 -0.50474
4 -0.49949
3 -0.50154
2 -0.48894
1 -0.48183
X** -0.41097

* finishing pos >= 10
** first up after spell
Here is the file for the first up after spell, for checking.
Looks like it's too big, sorry.

Good luck

[michaelg]

Thanks for the effort, lomaca.

There was one accident yesterday - it won its last two starts, but as there was a spell between them I decided to lay it - mistake. The other selection was beaten for a profit on the day of 0.01 units.

Today's selections:

Newcastle
1/3

Launceston
4/5
6/2

Pt Augusta
1/1

[lomaca]

Here is the file for the first up after spell, for checking.
Looks like it's too big, sorry.
For some reason I'm unable to upload any file no matter how small, strange?
Never had the problem before, Oh well never mind!

Here is the days since last start, breakdown:

<code>
Days <= 7 etc...ratio return No of races

7 -0.3299 -8219.148 24912
14 -0.4068 -67788.64 166659
21 -0.4192 -50836.75 121270
28 -0.4354 -18344.90 42131
More28 -0.4377 -84009.09 191923
'==============================================================
Exact days
7E -0.3452 -15237.44 44142
14E -0.4208 -47512.19 112918
21E -0.4321 -19249.15 44544
28E -0.4155 -6318.39 15206

good luck
</code>

[lomaca]

For some reason I'm unable to upload any file no matter how small, strange?
Never had the problem before, Oh well never mind!

Here is the days since last start, breakdown:

<code>
Days <= 7 etc...ratio return No of races

7 -0.3299 -8219.148 24912
14 -0.4068 -67788.64 166659
21 -0.4192 -50836.75 121270
28 -0.4354 -18344.90 42131
More28 -0.4377 -84009.09 191923
'==============================================================
Exact days
7E -0.3452 -15237.44 44142
14E -0.4208 -47512.19 112918
21E -0.4321 -19249.15 44544
28E -0.4155 -6318.39 15206

good luck
</code>In case in doubt about the days between, it's <=7, (>7 and <= 14), (> 14 and <=21) etc...

[michaelg]

Thanks, lomaca.

I've started testing a Lay method where the selection's last start was more than 21 days. Only been a handful of races so far but no accidents.

The Telegraph system didn't do too badly today. From the four selections there were three smiles for a profit of 1.45 units.

Since Sunday there have been 9 smiles from 12 selections for a profit of 5.13 units. It's certainly not as stressful as the Outsider lay system where I would lay selections up to $100 - I hope this one's successful.

[michaelg]

There were no selections yesterday.

Today's selections:

Rosehill
4/1
8/4

Echuca
7/8

Mackay
4/2

Gold Coast
5/4
6/1

Toowoomba
1/1
2/2

Kalgoorlie
7/1

[michaelg]

Yesterday there were 3 accidents from 9 selections for a loss of 1.0 units.

There have been two ocassions where 2 horses were under $3 in the p-p market, and one qualifies as a selection. I have been in two minds whether to omit the race because the selection could start at a relatively high price. On both ocassions I decided to lay the selection, and they turned out to be an accident. Yesterday this happened - Randwick R4. I'll now add this as a filter.

In spite of the above, the method is showing a profit of 4.13 units from 21 selections.

Today's selections:
Ballarat 5/2
Sun Coast 8/1
Devenport 6/3