Racing 'rules'

[thorns]

Right, am after everyones ideas of the racing rules they are taught when they first become interested in punting. As a rule, I generally find that yes they may help you pick winners, but ultimately they are poor value due to everyone else backing them as well. From my years of punting, I am finding that most of these supposed 'winning' rules, are actually better to look to lay......

Let me start with some of the rules I learned when I first looked into punting:

1-Must have placed 1,2 or 3 last start
2-Must be near the top of the race book ie low TAB numbers
3-Barrier 1-6
4-Racing within 21 days
5-Running within 200m of todays distance
6-Won/placed at course
7-Won/placed at distance
8-Won/placed in track conditions

As I posted probably a year or so ago now on these forums, heres a system that I thought would have to be a winner, but ultimately its a cracking lay system:

Tab #1
LS finish 1-3
Barrier 1-3


Thats a start there anyway, anyone able to add any more of these so called rules??

[partypooper]

G'Day Thorns,

I think that what many people conceive as "System" building is actually Handicapping in many ways i.e. that's exactly how a bookie would form his market i.e. based on past performance with a few other variables thrown in, breeding etc.

So it follows that the nags that stack up are the shortest quoted (and probably bad value) hence a losing proposition.

But as far as winner picking is concerned its still probably the best way. % wise.

In a nutshell, if we BACK all favs. we lose about 15% on T/O, so........ if we LAY them................ we should win shouldn't we?????? mmmmmmmm.

[michaelg]

Thorns, I've been looking at a similar Lay system with TAB no.1 but haven't kept any records because there isn't too much action. The rules are

1) TAB no.1
2) Won last start.
3) At least 1 kilo heavier than the next horse.

There were two selections today.

Warwick Farm 6/1 - beaten. (Started $3.40 TAB)
Belmont 2/1 - beaten. (Started $2.80 TAB)

There were no selections yesterday or Monday.


Party, I'm under the impression that if all faves were backed "at the jump" on Betfair then the loss would generally be about 5%, so too with laying them because of Betfair's commission.

[partypooper]

michaelg, so we either need to back em at overs or LAY them at unders ....yes?

[michaelg]

Yes...if only we knew if they were overs or unders. Or even whether they or any other horse will firm or ease.

Now where's my crystal ball???

[partypooper]

hahahah! yes that's right I was referring to a "rated" price of course from a reliable source.

[darkydog2002]

Michaelg
Why not use the Don Scott asessed price and bet all the Favs at or over the asessed price.

Lay method

Must be Fav

Race must be 900 - 1100

Horse must be a Backmarker.

[michaelg]

Hi, Darky,

some time ago I thought of taking his top 3 or 4 selections and betting or laying them. My idea was to use his rated prices to bet the overlays and then reduce his prices by 20% to obtain the max Lay price. In this way I would be almost assured of 3 or 4 bets per race.

I never did it because my preferred way of betting on Betfair is to lay just one horse, nor did I check any results from the method. However, its possible one day I might change my mind and see how it goes. I know there have been some excellent overlays.