Lay claiming apprentices.

[michaelg]

Over the past week if one had layed:

1) Under $3.00 in the pre-post market (I use the Telegraph).
2) Ridden by a claiming apprentice.
3) Omit the major tracks from the five states.

then the results would have been:

11 smiles from 11 selections for a profit of 10.45 units.

I picked four other days at random and checked the results of the above method.

10 smiles from 10 selections for a profit of 9.50 units.

If there's any selections today I will list them here.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Hamilton
2/4

Townsville
5/1

[wesmip1]

Michael,

Which tracks are you excluding.

Just as a quick response:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months under $5 have a negative expectation of $1.14 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.03 higher then break even). There were a total of 501 selections for 140 winners. I only included claiming apprentices (ie weight off of 0.5kgs or more). In this time frame you would have either made money or lost depending on the staking method (risked amount vs level stakes).

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months under $3 have a negative expectation of $1.22 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.22 higher then break even). There were a total of 119 selections for 53 winners. You would have lost regardless of staking method used.

Of all the courses which had at least 10 results in the range up to $5 only 1 course had a positive expectation (canterbury).

It may be short term spectacular but work out your expectation and you will know if its worthwhile continuing.

Taking the odds higher doesn't help either:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months between $3 and $10 have a negative expectation of $1.54 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.54 higher then break even). There were a total of 1342 selections for 226 winners. You would have lost regardless of staking method used.


Maybe the prepost price makes a difference. We can use unitab 100 rated or top pick as a filter if that helps for comparison:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months and rated 100 unitab up to $5 have a negative expectation of $1.06 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.06 higher then break even). There were a total of 168 selections for 49 winners.

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months and tipped first and up to $5 have a negative expectation of $1.27 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.27 higher then break even). There were a total of 290 selections for 90 winners.

Feel free to follow it but the numbers rarely lie.

If you want something else tested just let me know.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Wesmip1.

The tracks I excluded are those of the five major states for Wednesday and Saturday racing, and also at Flemington from last Sunday.

When I decided to look at the system I accepted that the better jockeys rode at these meetings so I assumed this would also be true for the better apprentices. I have kept form-guides for Saturdays, and checked the method with both claiming and non-claiming apprentices. They do not have a bad winning record. For example, over the past two Saturdays and last Wednesday, there have been 12 selections for 5 accidents having a TAB liability of $7.90.

However, the opposite was true over the short period I checked with country and provincial tracks, where as listed in the opening post there were 21 selections for no accidents. Of course it might have just been a coincidence, and reality will even it out.

However, I'll continue to see how they go, in spite of today's accident of $5.40 which one can with some wishful thinking put it down to the Forum Curse.

Thanks again.
Michael.

[michaelg]

One selection today:

Northam R7 no.1.

[wesmip1]

Jockey Change means no selection today.

[michaelg]

Two selections today

Pt Mac
5/2

Ipswich
1/1

[1annandale1]

I am trying to dissect the information here . Two extreme results .Can you clarify if you are laying at any price given the 3.00 cut off in the paper, or are you laying at BF price less than 3.00.Further the results of 119 bets for 53 accidents seems to good to be true as a betting system!!From a personal point of view, as a professional layer i think Michaelgs system has some merit with price limits.

[michaelg]

1annandale1,

I haven't set a limit on the price because my selections are under $3 in the prepost market, and I would not expect them to be too high on Betfair. When testing the method there were 21 selections, the highest from memory, was around $6.

However, Tuesday's accident was $6.40 for a liability of $5.40. Maybe a cutoff price should be set because the prepost market rates them having the best chance of winning the race, and accepting a relatively high price is most likely giving "overs". I keep a record of the prices I obtain so its something I'll look at, assuming the method continues to perform successfully.

As you say, 53 accidents from 119 selections does seem quite high. Maybe wesmip1 might double-check the results.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Albury
3/2

Kembla
3/1
4/1
5/6

Toowoomba
1/1
6/1

Good luck.

[wesmip1]

As you say, 53 accidents from 119 selections does seem quite high. Maybe wesmip1 might double-check the results.
Keep it mind mine are not based on pre-post prices. They are just horses that had a claiming jockey in the $3.00 and under price. So some of these may not have been pre-post price of $3.00 or less but they started on betfair at $3.00 or less.

Here are the selections (now 124). this be posted over 2 posts.

On 8/1/2010 at Sunshine Coast 1 . JUST ABOUT READY finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.28
On 8/1/2010 at Port Augusta 5 . KURRAJONG WHISPER finished 5 at a betfair price of $ 2.98
On 8/4/2010 at Grafton 1 . ROSCO STAR finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 1.75
On 8/4/2010 at Kensington 1 . PORTOS finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.96
On 8/4/2010 at Kensington 1 . AVEC MON AMI NZ finished 6 at a betfair price of $ 2.64
On 8/4/2010 at Belmont 4 . ROSE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.38
On 8/7/2010 at Gold Coast 3 . FAITH NO MORE finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.74
On 8/6/2010 at Ipswich 2 . ONE MOMENT PLEASE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.93
On 8/7/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 1 . JUST A TOUCH finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.95
On 8/7/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 6 . DONT CALL ME CRAZY finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.91
On 8/7/2010 at Flemington 2 . CENSOR finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.6
On 8/7/2010 at Belmont 2 . GOLD ROCKS finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.22
On 8/8/2010 at Kalgoorlie 7 . BATTLE SCENE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.34
On 8/9/2010 at Taree 3 . SPINNING NUTS finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.72
On 8/10/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 5 . MARKANYON finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.98
On 8/12/2010 at Rockhampton 1 . APUCKSHUNUBBEE finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.84
On 8/11/2010 at Canterbury 2 . ELUSIVE BOUNTY finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.98
On 8/11/2010 at Canterbury 4 . MILITARY GAL finished 5 at a betfair price of $ 2.96
On 8/11/2010 at Belmont 3 . IRISH ACTION finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 3
On 8/14/2010 at Gold Coast 1 . PRODUCT finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.1
On 8/15/2010 at Sunshine Coast 1 . JUST ABOUT READY finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.67
On 8/14/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 2 . POOR JUDGE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.84
On 8/14/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 7 . ANGEL WITHIN finished 5 at a betfair price of $ 2.28
On 8/15/2010 at Casino 1 . CEARNACH finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.8
On 8/15/2010 at Betfair Park Sandown Hillside 5 . CAMEO MINX finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 3
On 8/15/2010 at Betfair Park Sandown Hillside 6 . SHEEDY finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.76
On 8/14/2010 at Allan Scott Park Morphettville 1 . SUMMERY finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.98
On 8/14/2010 at Belmont 4 . LAURADANE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.2
On 8/17/2010 at Gosford 6 . ALUMBRADO finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.92
On 8/17/2010 at Sale 8 . GREAT PLAYER finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.32
On 8/18/2010 at Gawler 3 . ULTRAMARINE BLUE finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.18
On 8/18/2010 at Gawler 6 . ROSE OF BARABBA finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 3
On 8/18/2010 at Belmont 1 . KIDDY CAT finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.58
On 8/18/2010 at Belmont 4 . TOTTENHAM HOTS finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.86
On 8/21/2010 at Gold Coast 5 . MIEKO'S DIAMOND finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.82
On 8/21/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 6 . JUST A TOUCH finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.94
On 8/21/2010 at Kembla Grange 1 . CONCINI finished 5 at a betfair price of $ 1.84
On 8/21/2010 at Kembla Grange 7 . PONTIANA finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.7
On 8/21/2010 at Kembla Grange 8 . HOWDIDDYDOIT finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.97
On 8/19/2010 at Geelong Synthetic 7 . CHIVE BLOOM finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.2
On 8/22/2010 at Sunshine Coast 4 . IN REHEARSAL finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.89
On 8/22/2010 at Casterton 3 . BROOKLYN ROADS NZ finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.9
On 8/22/2010 at Kalgoorlie 4 . BATTLE SCENE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.99
On 8/22/2010 at Kalgoorlie 6 . BLACK GEORGE finished 6 at a betfair price of $ 2.2
On 8/25/2010 at Eagle Farm 3 . SEQSATIONAL finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.9
On 8/25/2010 at Canterbury 4 . IZABABE finished 9 at a betfair price of $ 2.88
On 8/24/2010 at Lismore 1 . PRINGLE'S WAY finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.76
On 8/25/2010 at Belmont 4 . MCSCAR finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.98
On 8/26/2010 at Rockhampton 3 . LAMBERT finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.72
On 8/26/2010 at Northam 2 . SYDNEY BUSINESSMAN finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.18
On 8/26/2010 at Northam 3 . RULE THE NORTH NZ finished 7 at a betfair price of $ 2.68
On 8/28/2010 at Newcastle 4 . SUNSET COAST finished 8 at a betfair price of $ 2.76
On 8/28/2010 at Morphettville Parks 2 . ADDICTION TO ROCK finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.72
On 9/1/2010 at Armidale 1 . BOBETTE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 3
On 9/1/2010 at Armidale 5 . NAUTICAL MILE finished 8 at a betfair price of $ 2.9
On 8/31/2010 at Moe 5 . GREAT PLAYER finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 1.67
On 9/3/2010 at Cairns 6 . KANETOSHI KING finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.54
On 9/4/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 4 . TYCOON ANGEL finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.22
On 9/4/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 6 . MIEKO'S DIAMOND finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.68
On 9/4/2010 at Hawkesbury 1 . THIRD MAN finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.46
On 9/4/2010 at Hawkesbury 7 . MORE THAN WORDS finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.52
On 9/6/2010 at Wagga 1 . DAME MAGGIE finished 5 at a betfair price of $ 2.96
On 9/6/2010 at Wagga 4 . COCKLES'N'MUSSELS finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.3
On 9/4/2010 at Morphettville Parks 3 . ADDICTION TO ROCK finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.87
On 9/2/2010 at Strathalbyn 7 . LENNYBE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.66
On 9/4/2010 at Belmont 1 . NEDIYMS RULER finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.88
On 9/5/2010 at Kalgoorlie 4 . CLASS TO GO finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.88
On 9/6/2010 at Canberra Acton 1 . DAME MAGGIE finished 5 at a betfair price of $ 2.96
On 9/6/2010 at Canberra Acton 4 . COCKLES'N'MUSSELS finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.3
On 9/7/2010 at Geelong Synthetic 7 . GUADALCANAL NZ finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.06
On 9/8/2010 at Canterbury 6 . MAC CHOIS finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.74
On 9/8/2010 at Hobart 3 . NEIL'S GOLD finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.36
On 9/8/2010 at Belmont 2 . MISTER MONEYPENNY finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.14
On 9/11/2010 at Gold Coast 7 . HOOTILLA finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.52
On 9/11/2010 at Belmont 8 . POWER PRINCESS finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.7
On 9/13/2010 at Gundagai 3 . GORGEOUS AMELIA finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.89
On 9/13/2010 at Murwillumbah 4 . GOLDEN SUCCESS finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.8
On 9/16/2010 at Port Augusta 3 . SNAAMAR finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.08
On 9/18/2010 at Doomben 2 . CHILLY RULER finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.88
On 9/18/2010 at Gold Coast 6 . DANAGAZE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.6
On 9/19/2010 at Northam 8 . BROOKESMEBABY finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.66
On 9/21/2010 at Taree 5 . SOUTHERN SHIMMER finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.62
On 9/20/2010 at Wagga 1 . DONILLY LAD finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.88
On 9/21/2010 at Kilmore 5 . SECRET ENCOUNTER finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.84
On 9/20/2010 at Warrnambool 2 . CHESTNUT VALLEY finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2
On 9/20/2010 at Warrnambool 7 . BUZRAAMI finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.88
On 9/22/2010 at Doomben 3 . RIM OF FIRE finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.78
On 9/22/2010 at Betfair Park Sandown Hillside 3 . RUNDLE finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 1.91
On 9/22/2010 at Belmont 4 . MCSCAR finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.76
On 9/24/2010 at Canterbury 2 . INTERTIDAL finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.28
On 9/23/2010 at Hawkesbury 5 . HOOD finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.84
On 9/23/2010 at Hawkesbury 5 . GLINTZ NZ finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.4
On 9/23/2010 at Naracoorte 2 . BISHOP OF DERRY finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 3
On 9/23/2010 at Naracoorte 2 . CELESTIAL TRUMP NZ finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.88
On 9/25/2010 at Doomben 2 . CAT EYES finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.8
On 9/25/2010 at Doomben 4 . POOR JUDGE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.88
On 9/26/2010 at Sunshine Coast 3 . IN REHEARSAL finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 1.73
On 9/25/2010 at Toowoomba Cushion Track 2 . RED FERMENTS finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.58
On 9/26/2010 at Moruya 4 . SUNNYARENA finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.7
On 9/27/2010 at Moe 3 . MI KERIDA finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.76
On 9/26/2010 at Morphettville Parks 1 . ADDICTION TO ROCK finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 1.43
On 9/25/2010 at Belmont 1 . CARBINE STREET finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.56
On 9/26/2010 at York 2 . THE SLEEPING GIANT finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 1.99
On 9/30/2010 at Gold Coast 5 . FALVELIZABETH finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.6
On 9/29/2010 at Canterbury 5 . FORT CHAUVEL finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 1.68
On 9/29/2010 at Belmont 7 . RIVERSIDE DRIVE finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.58

[wesmip1]

On 10/2/2010 at Newcastle 1 . PRINCESS NATURAL finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.42
On 10/2/2010 at Newcastle 6 . BASSOON finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.93
On 10/1/2010 at Moonee Valley 7 . TOKEN OF HONOUR finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.5
On 10/2/2010 at Allan Scott Park Morphettville 1 . JAALIPPY finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.38
On 10/2/2010 at Belmont 1 . IF YOU DO finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.42
On 10/4/2010 at Morphettville Parks 2 . MARION BAY finished 6 at a betfair price of $ 1.64
On 10/4/2010 at Morphettville Parks 4 . DON'S IN CHARGE finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.46
On 10/4/2010 at Morphettville Parks 7 . BERTUCCI finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.08
On 10/6/2010 at Doomben 5 . ZIPPY LOU finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 1.87
On 10/6/2010 at Canterbury 1 . LA REMLAP finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 1.7
On 10/6/2010 at Canterbury 3 . GLINTZ NZ finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.62
On 10/6/2010 at Canterbury 7 . HOME ON A WING finished 3 at a betfair price of $ 2.66
On 10/5/2010 at Hamilton 2 . STARSET finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.38
On 10/6/2010 at Belmont 7 . RINGMEISTER finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 2.18
On 10/7/2010 at Rockhampton 6 . OVERBOARD finished 1 at a betfair price of $ 2.74
On 10/8/2010 at Port Macquarie 5 . CLAN MCCLYMONT finished 2 at a betfair price of $ 3
On 10/7/2010 at Wangaratta 4 . JOYBOY finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.06
On 10/7/2010 at Northam 7 . CORTONA finished 4 at a betfair price of $ 2.92

Thats all the selections since 1st August. I can go back further but its a lot more selections with roughly the same results.

[michaelg]

Thanks, wesmip1.

I've identified the city/country tracks in your results hoping they might prove worthwhile but unfortunately they did not. I would expect that the period when I tested the system was simply going through a purple patch which has consequently distorted my results to the method's advantage.

I don't think there would be any significant difference in the results with my rule of limiting the Tele prepost fave to be under $3.00 because your cutoff price was under $3.00. And any of my selections that were $3-plus on Betfair would mean I'm giving overs which are not shown in your results and could mean in reality that the system would have fared even worse. The only notion that comes to mind is if the selection had a non-claiming jockey in its previous race. Its something I might have a look at.

[michaelg]

Out of interest, there are two of today's selections that had a non-claiming jockey at its last start.

They are:
Kembla 3/1 and 4/1.

Maybe this might even suggest the opposite. That is, to lay the selections that had a claiming jockey at its last start.

We'll see what happens.

[michaelg]

On Saturday the two selections where a non-claiming jockey rode at the previous start were beaten for a profit of 1.90 units. From the other 4 selections there was one accident for a profit of 0.10 units.

No selections yesterday.

One selection today:

Queanbeyan
6/1

There are 4 selections where a claiming jockey rode at their previous start:

Queanbeyan
1/6
2/2
4/4

Cessnock
1/2

[michaelg]

The selection on Monday was beaten. None today or yesterday.

Those selections that were ridden by a claiming apprentice at their previous start have performed quite well in each-way betting which so far mirrors wemip1's results.

From Saturday there have been 7 selections for 4 winners paying a total of $11.60 on NSW TAB, and 7 placegetters for a return of $10.40. This is not a bad result seeing that they are under $3 in the prepost market, and would be expected to be very short in the market.

There are 3 selections today. We'll see how they go.

Warwick Farm.
4/1

Northam
2/2
6/1

[Bhagwan]

It is sometimes considered that appretice jockeys, do not perform as strongly in distance races of 1600m+.

More research needs to be done to confirm this.

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, I've checked my results for the selections in races of 1,600-plus metres.

Laying these selections (9 of them) would have broken about even, so too with laying them to Place.

As you say, more research needs to be done, and I shall keep a record of them.

From yesterday's three selections there was one winner, paying $5.70 and $2.00.