a wise old man

[bryz55]

a wise man tells me... this was back in the 70's... he bet one horse per race three meets a week for ten dollar bets. over the 12 month period he turned over 10000 and returned 13200. his main form line was race times.

so i question anyone who has knowledge? who breaks track records ? is it the very top quality open class horse or is it any horse who just puts in a fast run on the day?

u can measure track conditions but what about overall day conditions?

how bout the following... eg. five race program belmont saturday.
race1 1200m trk rec. = 1.09.46 winner goes 1.10.66
race2 1400m trk rec. = 1.21.13 winner goes 1.23.08
race3 1000m trk rec. = 56.14 winner goes 57.35
race4 2000m trk rec. = 2.01.47 winner goes 2.04.13
race5 1650m trk rec. = 1.38.17 winner goes 1.40.03

so the gaps between records and actual are... 1.2s, 1.95s, 1.21s, 2.66s, and 1.86. total of 8.88 seconds but an average of 1.776s. so would it be fair to say that any horse that won with a time within 1.776s of the record would of been a good win and any winner that won with a time more than 1.776s out side the record would be a not as good win.? eg. the winner of race 1 and race three was a better win than the winners of race two and four. or would one argue that the shorter the distance the closer to the records the horse will get?

would this be another way to measure conditions for the day? todays average conditions are 1.776seconds outside the records regardless of actual posted track conditions. ...(obviously this cant help for the day but may help in analysing race times and comparing runners for future reference)or would this analysis simply reflect that wednesday class horses go slower than saturday class horses? and its not the day conditions just the animal?

this is like 50 questions in one so feel free to comment on any part you like...

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[wesmip1]

All of your questions have been answered by advocates of the Beyer speed figures. It would be a good idea to read up on their methodology if your interested in speed and race times.

A quick response though is no its not that easy as the pace of a race can influence the finishing times for lengths of 1400m +. 1200m and below though are run more consistently so the times will be more useful.

[darkydog2002]

Interestingly the "Official Race Club Handicappers" do NOT factor in TIMES in their analysis.
To me that about says it all in regard to Time Ratings.
Cheers
darky

[lomaca]

Years ago when I started to take punting seriously, I took aboard an advise from someone who was into time rating.
He said to me "the fastest horse wins the race!"

This advice took me down the garden path for many years and cost me countless hours of work, until I realised how wrong it was.

I'm not sure if he meant it literally or if I misunderstood him, it doesn't matter now.

It's not THE fastest horse in the race, that wins the race but the horse running the fastest time on the day!

I'm quite sure that time rating works and many punters using it successfully, but after many years trying to make it work for me, I finally laid it to rest.
I simply could not hack it. Just as well that my form and class rating works a charm.

Hope you will have better luck.

Good luck

[xanadu]

post4,
I agree with Iomaca......"CLASS" always wins in the longrun.....believe me.....!
Especially with the big Gp1 races coming up...."the best always come first"...!
Time ratings have too many variables...track conditions, length of grass...is the jockey "on his game" today...the list continues....!

Cheers.

[wesmip1]

Time ratings are not the all important factor but they are an important factor in a race. The horse which has run the fastest time ever is not the horse that will run the fastest time today as has been stated, but combined with class and other form factors you can make an educated guess at which horse will run the fastest today.

Its just another part of the punting arsenal that you should use and give appropriate weighting to in your decision making.

[bryz55]

Thanks guys keeps the brain ticking over... So it's worth looking at but it is just one factor of many that combined can give u an educated guess as to what could happen? But so many other factors could effect the result and at the same time change the outcome completely... Haha it has to be the toughest game around, lucky I like the challenge...

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[TheSchmile]

I find times are more significant in Perth where it is easy to compare horses that have run at the same track over the same distance a few times and you tend to not get so many wet tracks over there.

I look for horses that can sit somewhere near the pace and run good time. Often you will find horses run a great time but they were sitting 2nd or 3rd last while the leaders went nuts upfront. Food for thought....

[partypooper]

not sure if it's a subliminal (spelling?) bias or not but all the plans that I can make work long term term seem to be on WA races especially City which of course means Ascot/Belmont, though it could be due to more predictable track conditions especially with this new track drainage at Ascot.

But now for something completely different, but still on the "wise old man theme"

quite a few years ago my betting interests started in the local betting shop in "Yorkshire" UK there was old guy who always seemed to be collecting, he never said much but gradually we got to 'say g'day" and finally he spilled the beans....... he called the system STABLE LINE UPS

the plan was to look at stable hopefuls, lots of media hype etc concerning certain runners, you now " head lines" now he never backed these, but he looked for losers or disappointments and then backed other runners that the trainer had entered at the same venue, presumably working on the principle that the trip had to be paid for! check it out, but DON'T look at the form, just the results!