Place Method?

[michaelg]

Here's a Place system I've been looking at but unfortunately not betting, however will do so from today.

On the Don Scott page on the R & S website there are ratings for each horse's performance over the past 12 months. I've been monitoring the horse with the highest points and if it's last run was within the past 11 days (this information is shown in the previous column) it then becomes the selection.

Last month I've recorded the four days for the period 25/09 to 29/09. There were 38 selections for 27 placegetters for a TAB return of $59.90.

Last Monday to yesterday there were 10 selections for 4 placegetters for a return of $15.90. Some of the divvies have been huge, one being $13. Another double-figure selection ran fourth.

Win Betting produced around a 5% POT.

If anyone's interested today's selections are:

Ballarat
8/6

Hawkesbury
2/8
6/7

Rocky
3/1
6/1

I've omitted Rocky 4/9 because only two horses of the 13 runners have had a race start.

[partypooper]

I'll watch that with interest Michaelg, place betting being my main thing, only a small sample there but looks impressive, possibly the recent run makes the difference ey?

[lomaca]

I'll watch that with interest Michaelg, place betting being my main thing, only a small sample there but looks impressive, possibly the recent run makes the difference ey?Hi Party,

I ran these for a while and it's really good for place the S/R varies it gets some good priced ones which keeps it alive.

Don't bet it for win, occasionally it snares a big winner but then it whittles it away back to negative unless you can stand betting for the win and stop after a big winner.

Good luck

Ps I can send you the results if I can find them, otherwise I have to run it again.
Cheers

[partypooper]

Thanks Lomaca, sounds better all the time, if you find them I'd like to take a gander, lumbasakabayo att hott male dott comm

[michaelg]

lomaca, if it's possible can you also send them to me?

The address is mglfyl at primusonline dot com dot au

Today's only selection so far (H'bury 2/8) ran second paying $2.70.

[darkydog2002]

This sounds good as its based on sound principles.
Cheers
darky

[TWOBETS]

You are something. Simple systems that do the business.

[rabbitz]

Nice winner in Ballarat $13.50/$3.50 NSW tab
Well done
Wish i would have seen it earlier
Cheers

[michaelg]

Yes, it was a very good day - pity I didn't back them for the Win. Still, I can't complain.

Three placegetters from five selections for a return of $8.10, and two winners for a return of $16.80 - not too bad.

[kumite]

Here's a Place system I've been looking at but unfortunately not betting, however will do so from today.

On the Don Scott page on the R & S website there are ratings for each horse's performance over the past 12 months. I've been monitoring the horse with the highest points and if it's last run was within the past 11 days (this information is shown in the previous column) it then becomes the selection.

hi michaelg
the filter "last run was within the past 11 days"
is that regardless of how the horse performed in that run?
i would have thought how it rated that run (say compared to its best past 12 months) would have more bearing
cheers

[michaelg]

Hi, kumite.

Yes, it's regardless how the horse performed in that run. I haven't looked at any filters apart from the 11 days gap because the results in the testing period were so strong. Of course someone may think of a rule/filter that improves the results.

Yes, one can easily assume that run had more bearing than the 12 month period. But I don't really know how the rankings are calculated - maybe whoever does the calcs make no distinction from a race run 11 months ago against a race run last week, or if the more recent the race then the higher it is viewed which is consequently factored into the calculations?

From tomorrow I'll identify those selections that placed at its last start. Interestingly, the two winners today placed at their previous start, but I'll also be betting on the unplaced ones because I might miss some good priced placegetters.

Time will tell...

[luv2bet]

where do i find the don scott ratings on the r &s website??
not familiar with the site. thanks in advance..

[Mancunian]

michaelg - thanks again for another exciting prospect - can't wait to see how it also performs on Metro meetings.

luv2bet - From the R & S home page, click on Racing Today
Under Racing Today on the left hand column select Free Daily Stats
to the right hand side of each venue there are 4 small icons, the first is a horse, but the one to select is the third one which is like a sheet of paper.
The column BRR is for best race rating (I think) to the left of that is 12m and this is the column we're after. This is the 12m Rating figure, (again, I think).
DLS = Days since Last Start.

I'm pretty sure this is it - I'm certain someone will correct it if its wrong.

Cheers......Mancunian

[michaelg]

Mancunian, you are correct with your instructions.

Unfortunately I won't be posting today's selections. I had a virus in my computer and after two and a half hours have only now fixed it (with a lot of luck). In fact I phoned a computer repairer but cancelled the oppointment a few minutes before he was due to arrive - saved a few dollars.

Mancunian, re Metro tracks - when I tested the method on Sat 18 Sept it performed very well.

[luv2bet]

thanks very much mancunian, got it no worries..
michaelg, are there any avenues you havnt explored??
love your work, always an interesting read. thanks

[Mancunian]

The column BRR is for best race rating (I think)

Slight amendment - BRR = Base Run Rating

[Bhagwan]

Heres a little tip when using the 12m column.

If one clicks onto the 12m header in R & S , it will sort the whole column out in ranking order, therefore making it easier to get your selections. & less chance of error.

The DLR (Days Last Raced ) is to the left of this .

That interactive site is realy quite amazing , especially when you know that it's free.

[michaelg]

Thanks for the tip, Bhagwan.

As you say, it almost eliminates the chance of making an error, and also saves a lot of time.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Gold Coast
2/1*

Moonee Valley
2/1
4/11

Morphetvile
1/6*

Rosehill
4/10*
8/8*

Toowoomba
1/1*
6/2*
7/2

Townsville
1/6*
3/5*
4/7

Yarra Valley
3/5*

I'm betting them to Place only.

[luv2bet]

michaelg,
I find a good filter for various systems can be the unitab ratings. A selection must be within 2 points of top rated horse. having used this yesterday would of elimated 4 losing bets and only 1 winner.
good luck with it,

[michaelg]

luv2bet,

lomaca has began to analyze the results over the past few months, and is continuing to do so.

Backing every "raw" selection (there have been 1811 of them since 19/04/10) would have produced a very small profit with each-way betting, comprising of a profit on Win but a loss on Place. So it looks promising, and with filters/rules it might turn ot to be successful.

For example, lomaca has discovered that omitting last start winners would have improved the Win results, but broke-even with Place, which is an improvement.

I've e-mailed lomaca with the following information:- if a selection's "placed-points" from its last two starts had single figures, then over the past two days there were 10 selections for one winner of $3.30, and three placegetters for a total return of $4.44.

However, if the "placed points" came to 10 points or more, there were eight selections for three winners totalling $21.30, and six placegetters for a total return of $13.40.

We'll see if anything good comes from it, providing lomaca's data base can identify the amount of "placed-points".

Lov2bet, judging on last start winners, and placed-points from the last two days results it would seem that the method doesn't do all that well with horses that are fancied in the market, however I'll still look at your suggestion about the Unitab ratings.

[luv2bet]

michaelg,
If his data base cant calculate the 'placed points' maybe it could calculate a minimum acceptable price, ie has to have sp of >$4.
are those figures that you mentioned based on best tote prices or from one of the totes?
cheers

[michaelg]

luv2bet, the results are based on only one TAB.

lomaca has contacted me and suggested filters that would have shown a good profit for win and place betting.

1) No Maidens
2) No NTD races.
3) No last start winners
4) Max days of 10 since last start.

There was fifth, but looking at my results it eliminates too many races so I'll omit it for the moment, but will identify it with the selections to see how it goes. This filter says that the selection must have more than 2 points in the 12 Months ratings than the second horse.

With the 4 filters it reduces today's selections from eight to one. It is:

Sun Coast R8 no.1

[luv2bet]

michaelg
sunshine coast race 8 no 1 has a 12m of 29. there are a number of other horses with a higher 12 rating.. is this right

[michaelg]

Luv2bet, you're right.

My mistake - it's number 4. It's $17 in the pre-post market.

Please ignore filter 4 - I misread lomaca's e-mail. I must be getting getting old.

[Twodogs]

Well done Michael,

Great work and I do appreciate the time you put in and the worth of your posts well done!!

Cheers
Twodogs

[michaelg]

Thanks, Twodogs.

The selection won, paying $9.20 and $3.40. Thanks must also go to lomaca for coming up with the filters.

Out of interest, from the seven non-selections (those that the filters eliminated) there were two winners totalling $8.50, but three selections totalling $4.70 for a loss of $2.30.

[michaelg]

Unfortunately there are no selections today.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Hamilton
7/11*
8/11*

Taree
4/7
7/4*
8/11

Townsville
5/8

* = 2.5 points gap between top and next horse in the 12 Months ranking.

[Raven]

Have you looked at when the 12 month rating is also the Base Rating? Im thinking that horses in their best form may prove to be under value. Any thoughts?

[michaelg]

Raven, yes I did some time ago, and also with the fave in D.Scott's market, but neither showed promise for each-way betting.

However, this was over a very short period of time. Now that you mention it I might have another look. Are you suggesting they might be a filter?

If so, the top-rated horse in the 12 Month rating and also the BRR rating quite often are not very high in the market, and this might eliminate a good-priced winner/placegetter, but its still something to look at.

[jackact]

Michaelg,

Thank you very much for opening my eyes to the usefulness of the 12 month Don Scott rating on R&S. I had played with the R&S weight ratings previously, but had not noticed how good the 12 months rating seems to be as an assessment of class.

Your current use of this 12 months figure, filtered by 11 or fewer days since last run, may or may not produce long term POT (we all still hope it does, of course). Nevertheless, I think you have proved the worth of the 12 month rating. Perhaps other filters may produce better POT. I am playing with taking all horses within 2.0gs of the top rating, and then applying filters such as exactly 14 days since last run, or a pattern from a horse's last spell which matches its previous successful racing pattern – e.g., if its previous campaign pattern was x088312, then I would wait until 4th up next time.

Again, thanks heaps for the insight into how to make the most of the R&S ratings.

Jackact

[michaelg]

Hi, Jackact.

Hoping you are successful with it, in spite of yesterday's dismal results.

There were no winners or placegetters from yesterday's six selections. Hopefully it was just one of those days...

Today's selections are:

Ascot
3/4
4/2 (3.5 points gap between the next selection)
7/4
8/10

Bendigo
8/3

Gawler
5/3

[enjay]

Hi Michaelg.

I have been following with interest.

Just wondering why Bendigo mR 9 # 9 8588 LADY PAMELA does not fit the bill. ???

Cheers Enjay.

[michaelg]

Hi, Enjay.

It has equal points with no.15 which is currently the TAB fave.

Interestingly, you have probably noticed D.Scott has priced it at $701, and it is $50 in the Tele market. It makes one wonder how the 12 Month rankings are calculated, especially as you have pointed out that its placings from its last four runs is 8588. It must have been running in high-classed races.

It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

[michaelg]

Another bad day yesterday. From the six selections there was one winner of $4.40 and three placegetters for a total return of $4.50.

Two selections today:

Gold Coast R6 no.3
Seymour R5 no.4.

[michaelg]

A good day - both selections won for a return of $9.40 for the Win and $3.20 for the Place.

Since Sunday there have been 15 selections for four winners for a profit of $8.00, but a loss of $3.90 for the Place.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Canterbury
7/5

Goulburn
1/3

Ipswich
4/3

Moonee Valley
3/6
6/7

[michaelg]

From yesterday's five selections there were no winners, but two placegetters for a return of $7.40

Today's selections are:

Ascot
2/22
8/13

Ballina
7/13

Dombeen
6/1

Dubbo
5/4
6/8

Flemington
6/4

Newcastle
4/8

Rosehill
8/2

Toowoomba
1/7

Taralgon
5/2

There are quite a few huge outsiders.

[Bhagwan]

Here is a place staking approach that can work well on the right selections.

$100 Bank.
First bet 1 unit.

Bet increases to 2 units after a success & reduces by .50 unit after after a loss.
Example.
1.00 w
2.00 L
1.50 L
1.00 w
2.00 w
2.00 ect.

[Stix]

Hi Michaelg, Party, Bhags, Wesmip et al. :o

Just wondering, what type of staking approach (level stakes or % of bank or % of bank non reducing or other) is best that you've found for a place betting method? Not keen on progressive/chasing staking.

Currently, I've got a selection method, not a system as such although; it uses quality ratings as a base and a couple of filters over the top (max 4 additional rules).

It's currently hitting at 85% and returned 16.1 units over 100 bets (obviously equates to 16% POT), longest run of outs has been 2 and has hit 4 No Third Dividend results. The 100 bets are after being screened from 550 initial contenders....over almost two months.

So at level stakes, it really is showing promise, and the win is also in profit of 30 units for the win, with a couple of $9 winners and 44% Strike rate.....so tempting as a win method.

I must be getting a bit older as I'm finding the regular small wins on the place more enticing, and to a point, stress free as you have 3 chances and not one :)

There is enough action for me, being usually 1-2 selections a day and 3-4 on a Saturday and the best thing is it takes around 5 mins per meeting - which includes entering in the database and running the macros to apply the filters...

I do have a place staking plan from PPM and I think it was Alan Jacobs where they reinvest/parlay 25% of the profit from the prior winners on to the next selection - so you could have a fair bet riding on a selection after a run of 5 or 6 successes...it's seems a great way to build the bank, but very involved and hard to do unless you’re watching each race, which I would prefer not to....

Anyway, any help would be appreciated as currently betting level stakes of 1 unit (equates to 1% of beginning bank).

If I get time to post, I'll see if the forum curse can take it's best shot at the selections :p

Thanks In Advance

[michaelg]

Stix,

I don't use staking plans, but I am currently testing a Place system both here and in the U.K. Because the system has a high strike rate and an acceptable POT I have been considering using a staking plan instead of level stakes if the success continues.

My intended staking plan is the one Maria so successfully used. It happens to also be one of your suggested plans, i.e. non-reducing percentage of bank. This (like many other staking plans) increases the profit on almost any successful system, but maybe just as importantly, it also increases the interest so that each day's betting can be more exciting than the previous.

Of course, it just comes down to a matter of prefence.

[partypooper]

STIX, I'll ditto Michaels post, I was an out and out gambler for many years, always betting from the gut, but when I look back I was in fact making those gut judgements from "in-race " observations. Needless to say I had some spectacular wins and some soul destroying losses, (usually involving photo finishes)

Anyway, I got smart a few years ago, and have been place betting (mainly) ever since)

As you say Michael, it can be a bit boring, and almost any staking plan will not go astray IF the plan is in profit at level stakes. The problem is not the losing run as such its the succession of losing runs punctuated by a few skinny dividends.

eg. 9 losers then $1.10c, $1.30c, 6 losers, then $1.20c, $1.20c 5 losers, you get the idea, this sort of horror run happens even with a great plan that shows an overall POT.

So the bottom line is 1% of bank non reducing, just to spice things up again.

The +25% after a winner is not bad, but I would have a stop gap at say 5 hits, then back to 1 unit regardless.

[lomaca]

Anyway, I got smart a few years ago, and have been place betting (mainly) ever since)

Hi Party
did you notice the late mail at POL r1
not mentioned in the tips?
Won at more than $8.00.

Good luck

[lomaca]

Hi Party
did you notice the late mail at POL r1
not mentioned in the tips?
Won at more than $8.00.

Good luckDitto
SEY R3 No 8 placed at $2.00

[Stix]

Thanks Party, Michaelg :D

Going to re run the selections with 1.5% NR.... let you know the difference.

[michaelg]

Stix, I don't know if you bet with Betfair, but their Place prices are quite generous.

My Oz Place system is currently showing a POT of 16% with NSW TAB but 25% with Betfair. If I can't bet on Betfair, then I record the Betfair divvy as the same as the TAB. So if I had been able bet every race on Betfair I would not be surprised if the POT with Betfair had been even higher. Over my latest 12 Place successes, 11 of my Betfair prices have exceeded the TAB divvy, and the other was more or less identical, even with Betfair's 5% takeout.

Some Oz Saturday races now have the SP facility on Place betting. I contacted Betfair to see if this will be extended to all races. They replied it would not be in the forseeable future, and could not give an answer if it will ever happen. Fortunately it is available on the U.K. races which is very convenient for me.

[partypooper]

Lomaca, mmmmm, definitly looks like another angle, I'd noticed it when the 100 pointer wasn't in their (Radio Tips) top 3 , but had missed that 1.

PS. When I say "I got smart" I wasn't trying to imply that place betting is the only way to go, I merely mean that for ME, its what suits.

PPS, Love the banter guys, keep it coming!!

[Bhagwan]

PS. When I say "I got smart" I wasn't trying to imply that place betting is the only way to go,

Yes you were, I read it with my very own eye balls..so there.

[Crackone]

Stix
I like the idea of target betting, mine is 3% of bank. But you need to now what it is going to pay. If you lose two in a row then target what you are down.
Works with high S/R.

Cheers

[TWOBETS]

I know it works too Crackone, but I still don't chase. For my mind the more one ups the stakes then the closer to gambling it becomes. I know with super high strike rates it shouldn't turn to poo, but it opens one up to the possibility that all could go horribly wrong. I like the concept of % of bank. That way, good ,bad or ugly, you're still in control. Not the fastest way to larger bets, but by far the calmest.

[Stix]

Thanks Crackone, Michaelg and Two bets, much appreciated......I actually haven't had time to go back over the results betting 1.5% of bank non-reducing.....will this week.

Thanks again.

[Stix]

Thanks Crackone, Michaelg and Two bets, much appreciated......I actually haven't had time to go back over the results betting 1.5% of bank non-reducing.....will this week.

Thanks again.4 October - 16 November
72 Bets
61 Results
S/Rate 81%
Opening Bank $1000

1.5% level stakes = $15
Profit $285

1.5% non reducing = $15 first bet (highest bet $20) rounded down to nearest dollar
Profit $316

Handy.....early days ;)

[Raven]

Stix, with such a high strike rate, have you looked at race-to-race place doubles. Just all up onto the next selection.

In theory, if you hit 80% of the time at $1.40, you'd make 12% profit. Now with a S/R of 80% you should hit 64% race to race doubles at an average price of $1.96, for a profit of 25%. In theory...

[Stix]

Stix, with such a high strike rate, have you looked at race-to-race place doubles. Just all up onto the next selection.

In theory, if you hit 80% of the time at $1.40, you'd make 12% profit. Now with a S/R of 80% you should hit 64% race to race doubles at an average price of $1.96, for a profit of 25%. In theory...Mentioned the 25% re-investment plan below, that....in theory...increases yor returns, but haven't had time to run a test over the results, and again...in theory....it should work, as so far have had 3 lots of 2 run of outs - all three reulting in having a missed place dividend and a No Third Dividend (NTD)....see if I get time to do the test run over the next few days...

[oldtimers]

good morning. could you tell me how i find the don scott site you refer to in your place betting system,,,,....cheers bill

[lomaca]

good morning. could you tell me how i find the don scott site you refer to in your place betting system,,,,....cheers billhope this link is allowed?
http://www.racingandsports.com.au/form-guide/

[oldtimers]

many thanks for the site, looks good and will help....cheers bill

[The Ocho]

4 October - 16 November
72 Bets
61 Results
S/Rate 81%
Opening Bank $1000

1.5% level stakes = $15
Profit $285

1.5% non reducing = $15 first bet (highest bet $20) rounded down to nearest dollar
Profit $316

Handy.....early days ;)
How are you going/did you go with this one Stix?

I'm currently trying out a 100% parlay x 5 bets system but the odds are small so was wondering how you were going.

[darkydog2002]

Hey Fizzer .Coming back to a decent site in your old age.?