PPM

[partypooper]

Partypoopers Place Magic, (PPM for short) will carry on and post selections (with permission) hopefully there is still some sense of humour around?

I'm convinced I've struck a vane this time:

Todays selections are possibly

Ball 3-2
Ball 4-9
Ball 6-3

Mus 1-2
Mus 4-7
Mus 5-5
Mus 6-1
Mus 7-3

All for the place Best Tote

[Raven]

Are these your usual/main bets Party, or testing a new system/method?

[lomaca]

I'm convinced I've struck a vane this time:
As long as it's not a weathervane party, they can be a real pain...
(vein is what you want)


Mus 4-7
All for the place Best ToteGood choice but I'd keep and eye on Sutton Brave, may upset the applecart.

In MUS race 3 I go for No. 5 Patlanisio, if I'd bet on races with more than 1 first starters that is, still, we'll see!

Good luck

[partypooper]

Raven, no a different set of sels, though some might be the same, but with these ones I have some extra tricks that ensures a fantastic profit enhanced by the newly discovered physics busting staking plan!!!!

Remember though they are only "possible" selections!!!!!!!

In fact raven I have no investments today with my bread and butter plan!

Lomaca, I knew there was something not right about the "vain" hee hee!

[lomaca]

Good choice but I'd keep and eye on Sutton Brave, may upset the applecart.

In MUS race 3 I go for No. 5 Patlanisio, if I'd bet on races with more than 1 first starters that is, still, we'll see!

Good luckWell Patlanisio was a bit of a flop, but Sutton Brave saluted at $3.00 for a place.

Lets see if BAR race 5 No 9 or No 1 can do any good, win only, both are short but,

NB. Monkeys probably beat both of them but what can you do in a 7 horse race?

-------------------
PS. MUS race 5 try No 3 Afforestation again, hard to put a bet on for a place 7 runners but you never know, The fav is too short to back.


PPS. BAR race 6 Argenore or Toronto Star? 7 runners only wonder if the quinella would be worth it?
Pity I don't bet exotics.

Good luck

[lomaca]

PS. MUS race 5 try No 3 Afforestation again, hard to put a bet on for a place 7 runners but you never know, The fav is too short to back.


PPS. BAR race 6 Argenore or Toronto Star? 7 runners only wonder if the quinella would be worth it?
Pity I don't bet exotics.

Good luckAfforestation and Torontos Star came good and I stopped for the day

Maybe, Bar race 7 Lady Settain and Miss Megs could provide some profit but according to my ratings one could bet the whole field almost, they rank that close together.
Better leave it to the experts I think.

MUS race 7 Spinning Mira or Magic Guy sound good!?

Good luck

[lomaca]

Afforestation and Torontos Star came good and I stopped for the day

Maybe, Bar race 7 Lady Settain and Miss Megs could provide some profit but according to my ratings one could bet the whole field almost, they rank that close together.
Better leave it to the experts I think.

MUS race 7 Spinning Mira or Magic Guy sound good!?

Good luckMy apologies for hijacking your thread Party, didn't mean to!
Just happened.
Cheers

[partypooper]

Public Forum, er, isn't it? anyway makes for interesting punting. I had a shocker with the PPM, 2 races no bet (no value) 3 bitter disappointments, and 3 skinny divvies, so knocks the old % down a bit..... so far as I know that my probability busting staking plan will pull it back in line tomorrow!


so far 8 bets.. 5 hits..62.5% S/R Rets 6.92 POT (13.5%)

[lomaca]

Public Forum, er, isn't it? anyway makes for interesting punting. I had a shocker with the PPM, 2 races no bet (no value) 3 bitter disappointments, and 3 skinny divvies, so knocks the old % down a bit..... so far as I know that my probability busting staking plan will pull it back in line tomorrow!


so far 8 bets.. 5 hits..62.5% S/R Rets 6.92 POT (13.5%)if you have time MUS r 8 No 9 place

but don't blame me!!!!

Shouda kept my mouth shut!
i blame the jock!

[lomaca]

so far as I know that my probability busting staking plan will pull it back in line tomorrow!
Oh yes, lucky we have that one to fall back on, aren't we, plumb forgot, thanks for reminding me Party.

Cheers

[partypooper]

Heaps of possible action today, here's Mr sels. others following:

MR3-7
MR4-15
MR5-2
MR7-3
MR8-6

all for the place best tote

[partypooper]

AR1-7
AR4-8
AR6-1
AR7-3
AR8-5
AR9-3

SR2-1
SR4-2
SR6-4

BR1-12
BR2-4
BR4-3
BR5-11
BR7-1
BR8-14

PR to follow all for the place Best tote

[Moderator 3]

TheNeedle your post has been deleted. There was no need to post that. You have been suspended for two days. No discussion will be entered into.

[partypooper]

Perth pics

PR1-5
PR2-3
PR3-4
PR5-8
PR8-6

all for the place best tote

[partypooper]

Up-Date today 24 bets ..18 hits S/R 75%... Rets 29.5 POT =22.91%


Total So far 32 bets 23 hits S/R 71.87% Rets 36.42 POT= 13.81%

Not too foul eh?

Cleaned up big time of course with the staking plan.

Mark, did you get into that bet to nothing? had a brilliant day with it I got a $100 on Race 4 $5.34, and me missus got race 3 , forget the exact price but around $7,

Merely picked the top rated horse in each (unitab) bring it on. Also had the Cup tri every way EXCEPT that order, still a great day overall.

[partypooper]

Wed Sels. for Kyneton

Kyn 2-5
Kyn 4-4
Kyn 6-1
Kyn 7-5
Kyn 9-3

All for the place best tote available, other meets following

[partypooper]

mt gam 3-2

mt gam 5-6

Doom1-1
Doom4-5
Doom6-2

Graf.6-2


place only best tote

[partypooper]

Bad day 11 bets hits =6 S/R 54.54% (well below ave.) out11 in 9.2, loss of 1.8 (16.36)

But still cleaned up again using the "ULTIMATE" law of average defying staking plan!!


OVERALL so far:

43bets, 29 hits..S/R 67.44% =Rets.45.62, =+2.62, =5.82% POT

[partypooper]

Thurs.

MR7-6
MR8-13
MR9-2
SR3-4
SR4-3
SR5-5
SR6-4

All for the place Best Tote

[partypooper]

AR1-7
AR2-9
AR7-1

[partypooper]

A disappointing day really, feel that it should have been better, pity we wern't backing for the win, still,

10 bets 6 hits S/R 60% rets 10.4..... Profit .4 POT= 4%

Total to date:

53 bets ..3 hits..S/R 66%,..Rets 56.02 (=3.02) POT = 5.7%

Needless to say the staking plan absolutely slammed em' when we hit AR7-1 $2.60

There doesn't seem to be a lot of interest in this thread so I will post till, Sat
and then see.

[Raven]

actually, i'm interested but i only bet Sat & Sun. I was thinking of running some filters over the selections & grading each horse as a full unit bet or half unit bet.

[partypooper]

Pt.Maq 1-7
" 2-6
" 6-1
" 7-3

All for the place best tote (ipswich to follow)

[partypooper]

just the 4 for today now,
Ipswich 1-5
Ipswich 2-4
Ipswich 4-9
Ipswich 7-2

[partypooper]

Thats more like it!

Today 4 bets 4 hits S/R =100% Rets 5.7 =+1.7 POT = 42.5%


So far 57bets, hits 39 S/R 68.42% Rets. 61.72=+4.72 POT = 8.28%

[axledog]

Post deleted. No shouting. Thanks.

[bryz55]

Hey party just wondering where you get best tote for the place only cheers

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[partypooper]

G'day bryz55,

The operative is BEST TOTE AVAILABLE, so for metro meets thats Sportsbet or Sportingbet. They pay BEST TOTE NSW/Supertab/unitab.

For Country meets I still use Sportsbet who pay the best of NSW tab and Supertab (all my figures are based on that)

Now I think Sportingbet gives best of NSW and Unitab

Of course there are other outfits who offer different deals.

On country meets there may be a slight advantage half the stake @ Best of NSWS/Supertab, and the other half @ Unitab iether directly or through Sportingbet.

Hope I get a sling for that, bookies?

[bryz55]

Cheers mate I thought that would be the case I'm currently getting slightly better than middle tote which is ok for now...

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[partypooper]

MR3-3
MR5-6
MR9-3

All for the place best tote

Rest to follow after brekky

[partypooper]

sr1-4 might have missed that


rest of SR

SR6-4
SR7-2
SR8-5

[partypooper]

AR2-4
AR4-1
AR5-1

BR2-7 (Doomben)
BR3-4
BR4-8
BR5-7

All for the place best tote

[partypooper]

just the one at Perth

PR5-6

[TheNeedle]

This should be on the tipping thread,,,, how does this relate to systems when there is no talk of how the selections came about ???

same would apply here ?

[partypooper]

only difference is mine are winning, ark, ark


PS. ALL will be revealed!

[partypooper]

today counting IN the ntd that we missed. (pity we weren't on for the win again)

13 bets hits =8 S/R 61.53% Rets 14.1 =+ 1.1 POT 8.46%


Overall so far:

70 bets hits = 47 S/R =67.14% Rets 75.82 =+5.82 POT 8.31%

[axledog]

Post deleted. No shouting. Thanks.sorry, can see error of my ways, attempting only to keep poops active. great thread and wish to see it continue

[partypooper]

Today
Hobart5-3
Hobart6-1
Cran 5-1
Arar 1-1
Arar 8-8

All for the place best tote available


a few more to follow

[partypooper]

Profuse apologies to anyone that backed Arar 1-1, the bet was in fact Ara 1-2,

pure human error, to make it worse the 2 ran a place @1.70, sorry again.

more for today.

Armi 3-4
Armi 5-5

Sun 3-5
Sun 4-3

maybe some at Albany later

All for the place best tote available

[Raven]

Party, do you have a max number of starters in a race as a filter when considering your selections?

[partypooper]

G'Day raven, at this stage its just a test (i.e. Forum Curse etc) as above I'll already dropped a few clangers , mainly due to rushing to get em' posted in time.

So at this stage no filters other than if less than 5 runners obviously no bet. Also mucking around with overlays but basically I'm posting the raw selections.

You know the problem add filters and kill the action problem!

[Raven]

ok Party thanks.

Im just experimenting with pricing placegtters true odds, & using these estimates as the final yay or nay to bet. But I can't go 24 starters in Excel as the file is too big & corrupts.

I'll probably develop a stand alone bot to do it, but only if the bottom line looks worthwhile.

good luck

[partypooper]

Not the best today, unless youre on for the win in which case no harm done.

9 bets 5 hits =55.55% Rets 6.9 loss = 2.1 POT = (23.33%)

overall 79 bets hits = 52 S/R =65.82% Rets = 82.72 =+3.72 POT = 4.7%

[partypooper]

Colac2-6
Colac3-4
Colac7-2

[partypooper]

well ended up with only 1 bet which obliged @1.40.

so overall:
80 bets 53 hits = 66.25% Rets. = 84.12 =+4.12 POT = 5.15%

[partypooper]

Tuesday:

Cess 1-5
Cess 2-2
Cess 4-8
Cess 6-6
Cess 8-4

Moe 1-9
Moe 3-5
moe 5-7

Towns to follow, all for the place best tote av.

[partypooper]

towns 5-2

[partypooper]

Gee, the Forum curse is alive and well, I've never backed so many 4th's.

Anyway not a good day (unless youre on for the win again)

9 bets 5 hits S/R 56% rets 6.74 =loss of 2.16 POT= (24%)

so far:

89 bets, 58 hits , S/R = 65.16%, Rets 90.96 =+1 96 POT = 2.2%

[partypooper]

Wed
Murray 4-2
Murray 6-7

War 3-2
War 6-5

Eagle 1-1
Eagle 2-7
Eagle 3-2
Eagle 4-2
Eagle 6-3

All for the place best tote PR to follow

[partypooper]

PR1-9 (Ascot)
PR2-2
PR4-4
PR6-5

plenty of action anyway!

[michaelg]

Hi, Party.

You may have seen on my Test System thread where I checked 12 random day's results for 107 races which provided a 7.8% POT.

I had a further look at it and discovered the POT would have been even better if I had omitted all selections that had won their last or previous start.

I have been betting with this filter over the past three days. There have been 13 placegetters from 17 selections (not including today which has one more selection to go, and the method cannot lose) for a POT of 17%.

Intrigued, I applied this filter to your selections. I've looked from Sat to yesterday. Using NSW TAB divvies for $1.00 bets the results are:

Saturday - 5 selections.
$1.00 better off.

Sunday - 3 selections
$3.00 better off.

Monday
No change

Tuesday - 2 selections
$0.50 better off.

From the 10 selections only 4 placed, and would have improved the profit in three of the four days. This seems illogical but my results to date show them very unprofitable selections.

In fact, I've devised a Win system based on omitting the selection, and over the past three days it is showing a healthy profit.

[partypooper]

G'day michaelg,

I decided to post the basic selections without any filters in real time rather than in retrospect until there was say 200 bets, and at that time start mucking around with filters.

But your observation is very interesting, and not what i would have thought.

I looked at this idea a while ago but only applied it to Metro meetings, so I will correlate everything into a data base and see where we go.

Anyway so far:

102 bets, 65 hits S/R =63.73, Rets =99 =-3 POT (2.94%)

Talking about retrospect, this result is the worst that I've ever recorded, but I guess thats what we need to know ......."the worst"

[lomaca]

STILL NO IDEA WHAT I DID TO GET MODERATORED, BUT BEEN FOLLOWING
YOU SELECTIONS FOR A WHILE. GOING GOOD AND IF IM ALLOWED WOULD LIKE TO OFFER SOME INPUT AND/OR ADVICE UPON YOUR SELECTION CRITERIA. AS I SAID AND NEVER QOUTED I HAVE BEEN DOING A PLACE % SYSTEM MYSELF AND I WILL START MY OWN THREAD IN DUE TIME BUT WANT YOU TO HAVE YOUR THUNDER WHEN ITS DUE. KEEP GOING MATE, BEEN WINNING OFF OF YOUR TIPS AND DOING BETTER THEN ME AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAYBE COULD GET ALONG AND
DISCUSS THEORYS , AND BRING SOME WINNERS TOGETHER?Simple mate, turn off the caps lock!
(don't use capital letters!)

[Moderator 3]

Axledog, your post has been deleted for shouting. Please turn off the Caps Lock when you post. Thanks.

[partypooper]

Well, I'll blame my missus for missing the first winner at hawks, bl oooo dy shopping, anyway here are the rest of em'

Ben2-6
Ben8-1

Hawks 2 -2
hawks 3 -5
hawks 6-1
hawks 7-9

might be some at Geraldton later

[partypooper]

Rock 3-1
Rock 4-7
Rock 5-1
Rock 7-13

[partypooper]

Geraldton 3-2
Geraldton 4-1
Geraldton 7-2

all for the place best tote av.

[partypooper]

so far:
115bets 73hits S/R =63.48%, rets.109.84 =-5.16 POT(4.49%)

peddling backwards at the mo. mainly due to the skinny divvies, not sure why that is?

I think its almost time for the reveal and to introduce some filters!

[partypooper]

Pt Maq 2-9
PtMaq 3-12
PtMaq 4-5
Pt Maq 8-4
PtMaq 9-3

Wang 2-6
Wang 8-3

all for the place best tote av. more to follow


will stick to the basic sels today and apply filters from tomorrow.

[partypooper]

Just one minor change implemented today to try and counteract these skinny divvies, all bets are 1/2 point place at best tote av. (Sportsbet) and half @ Unitab Odds (through Sportingbet) just pay the "sling" into my account chaps!

[partypooper]

Ipswich 3-10

Ipswich 4-13

MR & SR to follow later in day

[partypooper]

Well, worst day EVER, but may as well go the whole hog!

Moon1-6
Moon7-7

[partypooper]

Well, just goes to show you its never over till the fat lady sings!! The last two at Mooney saving the day.

so far:
bets 125, hits 79, S/R =63.20% Rets.119.71=-5.29 POT (4.23%)

[michaelg]

Party,

when you look at filters you might consider Unitab 100 pointers.

Today from your 11 selections there were six 100 pointers. From them there were three winners totalling $7.30 and 4 placegetters totalling $6.10 - these are using Unitab divvies.

I also did not have the best of days with my Place system - in fact its the first day I've lost (thankfully it was very little) on Betfair. However, if I had limited my selections to the Unitab 100 pointers there would have been only two of them, for a winner of $3.60 and both placed for a return of $2.80.

From tomorrow I'll be monitoring them.

[partypooper]

Party,

when you look at filters you might consider Unitab 100 pointers.

Today from your 11 selections there were six 100 pointers. From them there were three winners totalling $7.30 and 4 placegetters totalling $6.10 - these are using Unitab divvies.

I also did not have the best of days with my Place system - in fact its the first day I've lost (thankfully it was very little) on Betfair. However, if I had limited my selections to the Unitab 100 pointers there would have been only two of them, for a winner of $3.60 and both placed for a return of $2.80.

From tomorrow I'll be monitoring them.

Well, its time to admit that I started this thread with a hint of humour, i.e I was only going to admit to the winners, hee hee, post a few after the race, and make an absolute killing with the secret "staking plan"

But as management was frowning on that behaviour, decided to make it an actual test.

The method of selection is quite simply, to take the Radio Tips (unitab) which are also Late Mail.

Funny thing is you mentioned 100 pointers as a filter, but Wes. and co. have already posted in the Systems on the radar thread, just about that and have shown how to turn it into profit,....... so I guess thats it..... BUSTED!

I had intended to add the following:

Placed last start (or first up over 1200m OR LESS)
racing within 21 days
rated 97+ (Unitab)
No bet if ridden by a 3kg claimer, lady, amateur, apprentice, or a jumps race.
No bet in any race of 2000m or more.
No night meetings (twilight)
Omit races for Fillies and mares only.

But as the lads seem to have done the work, I'll quietly go and work on the next "world beater" as I've got me eye on that "chopper" still hahahah!

[lomaca]

The method of selection is quite simply, to take the Radio Tips (unitab) which are also Late Mail.
Party if you follow late mail, it's more profitable to do so with the late mail being different from the first 3 tipsters selections.
Like tips 1,2,3 LM 4, usually less strike rate but bigger divies.

A friend who only bets for fun, follows the tips on Supertab and only bets when the late mail is different.

Can't see into his betting pocket though, so don't know if he is making money or not?

Good luck

[partypooper]

Funny you should say that Lomaca, I had noticed that the 100 pointer when NOT in the top 3 radio tips often gets up at odds, could be worth a look!