Michaelg

[darkydog2002]

The R+S is still firing well.
Nice pickup on G.Coast R 3 @ $31 / outlay $30.
The selections were 1 - 3 - 4 - 6
No.4 I tossed out as being too short.

Cheers
darky

[michaelg]

Darky, its good to know its still performing.

I've just read your post about outsiders. A few years ago I was talking to a guy at the local TAB. He told me he backs each-way the three biggest outsiders. I can't remember if he applied this to every race, and he swore he was in profit. I followed his bets one Sat, and we snared a $115 in Perth - I'll never forget it.

Sydney R5 has just been run, the runner-up was the rank outsider and paid $21.60 to Place. I've occassionaly looked at the method, and these outsiders fill a Place more often than one would expect.

[darkydog2002]

A anamoly I just notice in the GC race 4 was the price of the Tipster selections of H 1 R+S asessed $61 and 6 asessed $26 - Unitab price of 1 was $3.05 and of 6 was $10.
A way of knocking out under the odds and crap selections is my immediate thought but who knows.

Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

In the above scenario I would have thrown out
R 5 1 - 4 - 15
R 6 11
R 7 7

Will keep an eye on this.

Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

In the last as per my usual modus operandi with R+ S I have 4 - 5 - 8 - 10 - 14 BUT a minimum price of $6.Any lower than this will get thrown out as well.

Cheers
darky

[lomaca]

Sydney R5 has just been run, the runner-up was the rank outsider and paid $21.60 to Place. I've occassionaly looked at the method, and these outsiders fill a Place more often than one would expect.Michael, the horse in Sydney R 5 was the top selection in Donsct. base ratings and in my opinion that's the only one that shows promise for the place, (the second selection may be OK for eaw)

I haven't done a thorough analysis yet, but people with more time could perhaps find filters?

[michaelg]

lomaca, I've already looked at the BRR rankings but have not been able to come up with anything consistent or promising. I've even looked at exotics with multiple selections that are high in the BRR ratings, but unfortunately without any success.

However, what I might do is to examine the BRR rankings for Syd R5 and try to work out why it was the highest rated. As a matter of interest, the winner was the third lowest in the BRR ratings.

[lomaca]

lomaca, I've already looked at the BRR rankings but have not been able to come up with anything consistent or promising. I've even looked at exotics with multiple selections that are high in the BRR ratings, but unfortunately without any success.

However, what I might do is to examine the BRR rankings for Syd R5 and try to work out why it was the highest rated. As a matter of interest, the winner was the third lowest in the BRR ratings.I hate say this Michael, after the event, but that was one of my four bets today!

I had them 3,8,1 the 3 Samui, was (for me) obviously out, and Pat.Glory was first up over 1500 so out again.

My rating is of course often different from Donsct. I didn't have Moderna anywhere in the first six even.

Wish I had time to run tests.
Cheers

[darkydog2002]

A trap for young players today Michaelg.Especially for players like me who like a good track.
Dubbo /Newcastle /S.Coast TC Good .
R+S ratings are for DEAD Track conditions.
For me this is betting at my own peril.No Thanks.
Watch on is my go today.

Cheers
darky.

[lomaca]

R+S ratings are for DEAD Track conditions.
Agree with darky here, the two track conditions I don't like to bet on (but sometimes DO just the same) are DEAD and HEAVY.

The worst I think is DEAD, it's such an undefined condition, it could be and mostly is anything, a mixture of good and slow that you never know what to prepare for.

Take Ascot last week, from the fourth race on, I did not have a place getter in my first three selections, highly unusual.

Not that they are profitable mind you because of the dividends can be low, that's why I only bet for a place when the pl divi is more than $3.00.

I worked on a good track but I don't think it was that.

Good luck

[partypooper]

Lomaca, there was unexpected rain last week , quite heavy too. But the drainage now is excellent, so doubt that it could have changed things that quickly, well, not for long.

There used to be big problems with water here a few years ago but since the upgrade its good.

[lomaca]

Lomaca, there was unexpected rain last week , quite heavy too. But the drainage now is excellent, so doubt that it could have changed things that quickly, well, not for long.

There used to be big problems with water here a few years ago but since the upgrade its good.You are probably right Party, I don't do well at all for a win at Perth but usually snare a couple of good place bets specially when certain jocks are riding for certain trainers of the same name and the odds are good.

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

Gees.Wish I was betting today though-especially the first at Dubbo.
3 - 8 - 10.The trifecta paid $864 unitab for the $6 outlay.
Always the way isn,t it.?

Cheers
darky

[michaelg]

Darky, because of that race (it was a Maiden) I'm checking today's Maidens.

I've limited the field to a minimum of 11 runners and looked at all horses in D.Scott's market that are under $50. So far it doesn't look too bad.

Devenport R1 had 7 selections. The method snared the winner of $84 and the quinella of $500. It also had the trifecta of $4,800, but I'm more interested in quinellas because of the TAB's smaller takeout.

Your mentioned race of Dubbo R1 had 4 selections, and snared the $95 quinella.

There are two more Maiden races in the system.

They are:

Bunbury
R3 nos. 2, 4, 7, 12, 14
R4 nos. 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12, 14.

We'll see how they go.

[darkydog2002]

Pity about that Michaelg.
The prices were most excellent .
Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Michaelg,
Looking at Warnambool Race 5 For trifecta /1st 4.
2 - 7 - 9 - 10 - 11.
My thoughts are to remove anything under $3.00.
Any thoughts?

Cheers
darky

[lighthuman2010]

My thoughts are to remove anything under $3.00.
Any thoughts?

Cheers
darky
Darky,

My thoughts would be to only remove anything under $3, if you have it priced at over $3.

That way you are betting value and not just removing/betting selections for no logical reason.

[michaelg]

Darky, re W'bool R5. Even though nos. 3 , 4 and 5 are not fancied in D.Scott's market they've all won at either last or previous start, and are high in the pre-post market.

I don't know how he gives them little chance. After saying that, none of them are in Unitab's top four raters, so your horses might provide a good exotic bet.

About removing anything under $3 - they always seem to provide poor value, except every now and then with Place betting.

[lighthuman2010]

About removing anything under $3 - they always seem to provide poor value, except every now and then with Place betting.
michaelg,

They are only poor value if you have them priced at over $3.

[michaelg]

Lighthuman2012,

I used to have a calculator where the Win prices of the three placegetters would be inputted, and the true trifecta divvy (it included the TAB 20% take-out) would then be calculated.

It soon became very obvious that the shorter the fave then the smaller the TAB trifecta divvy when compared to the true divvy. This was at its worst when the fave won the race, not too bad when it ran second, and was more or less what was expected when it ran third.

According to the calculator, even if one priced a $3 horse at even-money, it would in the long run pay less than what was expected, even though it might be profitable at Win betting depending on the accuracy of the ratings..

[lighthuman2010]

Lighthuman2012,

I used to have a calculator where the Win prices of the three placegetters would be inputted, and the true trifecta divvy (it included the TAB 20% take-out) would then be calculated.

It soon became very obvious that the shorter the fave then the smaller the TAB trifecta divvy when compared to the true divvy. This was at its worst when the fave won the race, not too bad when it ran second, and was more or less what was expected when it ran third.

According to the calculator, even if one priced a $3 horse at even-money, it would in the long run pay less than what was expected, even though it might be profitable at Win betting depending on the accuracy of the ratings..
michaelg,

Of course you are going to have flucuations in the trifecta div comparing it to the prices of the win pool. But if you are only using value selections as "standouts" in your exoctic bets, then you will win long-term no matter the price. But then again if you are using the wrong combination formula it won't work either.

If you don't want to deal with low divs, then don't bet in the races where your value selection is still the short price fav. Why take it out altogether and still bet if it is your top rater and value? There is no logic to that.

[michaelg]

Don Scott in his later years bet his overlays in trifectas, but unfortunately he lost.

If he had a trifecta calculator similar to mine he would most likely have discovered that much too often the fave was good value in Win betting but of little value in Trifectas.

According to my calculator this applied to all faves, but more so with the shorter ones.

Maybe people generally feel uncomfortable omitting the fave from trifectas. I would not be surprised if this also applied to F. Fours.

[darkydog2002]

Ah Michaelg,
I can but try eh.The prices were good but alas.
Cheers
darky

[lomaca]

Then he would have been a perfect fit for this forum.

I'm wondering if there is a point to your posts other than ridiculing the punters on this forum in general and darky in particular?

If I'm wrong I apologise, sorry!

[michaelg]

Lighthuman2010,

I don't rate horses but even if I did, I would automatically remove the fave from winning and running second in Trifectas even if it was "overs".

It is not common sense to assume that because a horse is value in Win betting that it also is automatically value in Trifecta betting, because with the fave more often than not it turns out to be poor value.

As I previously said, if Don Scott had my calculator he would have sooner or later realised this.

I dont think I have been explaining myself very clearly because you say "if you think removing your top rated value selection from your exotics..." I am not recommending removing the top rated value selection - what I am recommending is removing the favourite.

[lighthuman2010]

I'm wondering if there is a point to your posts other than ridiculing the punters on this forum in general and darky in particular?

If I'm wrong I apologise, sorry!
lomaca,

I accept your apology, yes you are wrong.

Have a read of my posts. You will find nothing but sound logical advice that will help you succeed. Then compare my posts to the other person you are talking about and look at the difference.

But thanks for asking. Much better to do it this way rather than complaining to admin. Easier to clear the air when we all communicate like adults.

[lighthuman2010]

I dont think I have been explaining myself very clearly because you say "if you think removing your top rated value selection from your exotics..." I am not recommending removing the top rated value selection - what I am recommending is removing the favourite.
But only just a few lines above you said:

I don't rate horses but even if I did, I would automatically remove the fave from winning and running second in Trifectas even if it was "overs"..
But if the top rated value selection is the fav, will you remove it?

According to what you have said above, yes you will. And that makes no logical sense at all.

[michaelg]

Yes, I will remove the fave.

Yes, it makes no logical sense. But when my calculator proves over hundreds (maybe thousands) of races that faves are continually very poor value in Trifectas, then to remove them from running first and second does make logical sense.

[Moderator 3]

Lighthuman2010 your suspension has been increased to one month following moderation of another post critical of this Forum. We suggest you might like to find a Forum where the members meet the punting standards you require.

[darkydog2002]

Whats your thoughts on R7 At Ballina.

Cheers,
darky

[michaelg]

Hi, Darky.

According to the p-p market it's a very open race with the two rank outsiders at only $26.

I've found that when Dolendo is on a fancied horse it generally does quite well. The $4 fave is Radedsky ridden by Dolendo. Compared to 99% of its opposition it's had fewer starts, and its got a 50% Place strike rate. Its a 5 year-old and most of the opposition is older than it, and sprint races seem to favour younger horses except maybe in Black Type races.

I don't know if I'll be betting on the race but I would not be surprised if Radetsky does well.

Good luck.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks Michaelg.

[darkydog2002]

Looking ok at this point Michaelg with 15 Minutes to go.

Now for that pesky form factors of PL or Crudely PA to contend with.

[darkydog2002]

I think I,ll have a crack at R 7 Gawler today 1 - 3 - 4 - 5 - 6 - 7.

Cheers
darky

[michaelg]

My boxed quinellas are numbers: 3, 4, 6, 7, 12 and 13. The last three numbers are at double figures.

Danny Green in tonight's fight seems to be well and truly under the odds - but I can't bet against him.

Good luck. (that includes you too, Danny).
Michael.

[lomaca]

My boxed quinellas are numbers: 3, 4, 6, 7, 12 and 13. The last three numbers are at double figures.

Danny Green in tonight's fight seems to be well and truly under the odds - but I can't bet against him.

Good luck. (that includes you too, Danny).
Michael.GAW R7 you mean?

I go for 3,5,1,10,4,7

Good luck

[darkydog2002]

Re Danny Good luck to the man who I admire .A great athelete.
At 37 its probably time to hang up the gloves and train younger up and comers.
Cheers
darky

[TWOBETS]

Professionally assessed horses are the only ones I put my cash on, Darky.

[darkydog2002]

A smart Man Two Bets.
The beauty of it too is their are a good number of them out there.Its finding the one your comfortable with.
I prefer R+S because their Weight Rated as against Speed rated.
I might change my opinion on that when the "official Race Club Handicappers" incorporate speed ratings into their base.
But if speed ratings work for anyone its their preference though its never worked for me so I stick with what works for me.

Cheers
darky

ps.Anyone know how Danny went.?

[lomaca]

ps.Anyone know how Danny went.?Google is your friend darky, but yes he won on points went the whole 12 rounds.

[darkydog2002]

Yeah.One such bloke at my local pub was asked what he did with all his winnings.
Wine ,woman and song he said."The rest I just squandered"

Come to think of it I might just squander a bit myself on R 7 @Seymour
1 - 5 - 7 -9 -13

Cheers
darky

[Moderator 3]

A number of posts have been deleted. This is the wrong forum to post about athletes and boxing. Thanks.

[darkydog2002]

I think I,ll have a crack at 2 races today

Goulburn R 5 H 1 - 3 - 5 - 10 - 11

Ipswich

R 7 H 2 - 4 - 7 - 9 - 14

Both races $6 Minimum

Cheers
darky

[lomaca]

I think I,ll have a crack at 2 races today

Goulburn R 5 H 1 - 3 - 5 - 10 - 11

Ipswich

R 7 H 2 - 4 - 7 - 9 - 14

Both races $6 Minimum

Cheers
darkyI finished betting for the day, but recommend IPS R7 Sonic Hill for the place. (No 8 Warchimes looks OK but for the jock?)

Good luck

[darkydog2002]

It looks like a quiet day for me Michaelg
Maybe R 8 @ Rosehill 1- 4 - 6 - - 13

Wonder what giddyup on the NSW tote has?