Spring Carnival Trainers

[Try Try Again]

For a bit of "fun" over this Spring Carnival I decided to pick 5 Trainers to follow at the main meetings and to support their horses based on the horse's opening price (as shown on Betchoice). All bets were placed on Sportbet's Citybest Plus.

The 5 Trainers I chose were:-

Bart Cummings
Mark Kavanagh
Peter Moody
Mick Price
Peter Snowden
Based on the horse's opening price I bet in the following manner:-


<= $4.00 bet 4 units
>$4.00 to <= $7.00 bet 3 units
>$7.00 to <=$10.00 bet 2 units
>$10.00 to <=$21.00 bet 1 unit
Any horse opening >$21.00 was not supported
The results were quite acceptable and would have been more than acceptable if Mick Price had had a better Spring Carnival!

Results were:-


BC - 40 runners 33 bets 7 winners -4.4 units LOT -6.2%
MK - 42 runners 42 bets 5 winners -6.9 units LOT -6.8%
PM - 64 runners 57 bets 18 winners +136.8 units POT 93.1%
MP - 33 runners 27 bets 2 winners -54.4 units LOT -77.7%
PS - 54 runners 49 bets 8 winners +4.3 units POT 3.4%
Overall 233 runners 208 bets 40 winners +75.4 units POT 14.6%
There were 17 times where the horses ran 2nd without the winner also being backed - so with a little more luck the figures could have been better. Obviously, this doesn't take into account the reverse side where winners were backed because of a "little good luck"!

Seven odds-on winners were backed, mainly due to So You Think (4) and Black Caviar (2). Six winners > $10.00 were also backed with Shocking and Sound Journey both paying $18.70 being the highest dividends.

It certainly was an interesting project and thanks to Peter Moody a profitable one.

[Dale]

My first thought is would reversing the staking system have shown a larger profit?

Sometimes its better to have your largest bets on the bigger overlay not the shortest price.

Six winners over $10 with the highest paying $18.70 times the 4 unit bet puts you well into profit with 34 other winners to add to the tally.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Dale,

I had a look at your suggestion at reversing the amounts bet on each selection.

Based on the horse's opening price we would have bet in the following manner:-

<= $4.00 bet 1 unit
>$4.00 to <= $7.00 bet 2 units
>$7.00 to <=$10.00 bet 3 units
>$10.00 to <=$21.00 bet 4 units
Any horse opening >$21.00 was not supported
The results showed a dramatic change with a loss now of 79.4 units a LOT 15.2%.

Bart Cummings showed a greater loss from 4.4 units to 71.6 units
Peter Moody dropped from a profit of 138.8 units to 63.2 units
Mark Kavanagh was the only one to show a change in direction going from a loss of 6.9 units to a profit of 38.9 units
Mick Price showed a greater loss from 54.4 units to 61.1 units
Peter Snowden dropped from a profit of 4.3 units to a loss of 48.8 units

The reason Mark Kavanagh had such a large turnaround was because in his 5 winners 2 paid $18.70. By betting more on these winners we made a greater profit as there were only 42 bets made on MK's horses.

I think based on these results I would stay with my original staking plan.

[Dale]

Based on those figures youd be crazy not to.


For curiosity sake how many of those 208 bets were in the $10 to $21 range?

[Try Try Again]

Hi Dale,

The breakdown per Trainer was:-

BART CUMMINGS

<= $4 8 bets 6 wins (So You Think won 4, Precedence won 2)
>$4 to $7 4 bets 1 win
>$7 to $10 6 bets 0 wins
>$10 to $21 15 bets 0 wins

PETER MOODY

<= $4 15 bets 9 wins
>$4 to $7 17 bets 7 wins
>$7 to $10 11 bets 1 win
>$10 to $21 14 bets 1 win

MARK KAVANAGH

<= $4 6 bets 2 wins
>$4 to $7 17 bets 1 win
>$7 to $10 8 bets 1 win
>$10 to $21 11 bets 1 win

MICK PRICE

<= $4 6 bets 2 wins
>$4 to $7 9 bets 0 wins
>$7 to $10 7 bets 0 wins
>$10 to $21 5 bets 0 wins

PETER SNOWDEN

= $4 10 bets 4 wins
>$4 to $7 21 bets 4 wins
>$7 to $10 7 bets 0 wins
>$10 to $21 11 bets 0 wins

Interestingly,

In the >$10 to $21 bracket there were 56 bets for 2 winners totaling $31.80

In the >$7 to $10 bracket there were 39 bets for 2 winners totaling $28.80

In the >$4 to $7 bracket there were 68 bets for 13 winners totaling $82.40

In the <=$4 bracket there were 45 bets for 23 winners totaling $64.20

This certainly indicates I could have made a bigger profit if the price brackets >$7 to $10 and >$10 to #21 had been ignored.

The overall results would have been:-

113 bets 36 winners (S/R 33.0%) collect $146.60 (if betting 1 unit on each selection) Profit = $33.60 POT% = 29.7%

If following my initial betting plan
Outlay = 4x45 + 3x68 = $384
Collect = 4x$64.20 + 3x$82.40 = $504
Profit = $120
POT % = 31.2%

Dale, I appreciate you asking the question as it has made me look more closely at the raw numbers and if I took this approach again at following Trainers over a carnival I would only consider horses with opening prices <=$7