Newbie Introduction

[iPunter]

G'day all.

Been reading for a while here & thought I should introduce myself to you folk.

I'm a newbie in every sense of the word when it comes to punting, systems & selections. I followed some racing as a kid many years ago when my Dad & Uncle owned a horse in western NSW.

Since then I haven't really paid much attention other than the obligatory Big day in November as every Aussie should or the occassional day out at a track with the boys (More of an excuse to drink really) when I was living in Kalgoorlie.

So, after a little win on a trifecta which was placed because I was in a pub with a few guys who were punting types, I decided I might put the money to good use & secured an online account with one of the many internet based betting agencies & have been playing around with a few systems ever since. That was 2 years ago & since then I have dwindled my win from $3500 to $500. But I have also used some profits along the way to purchase a computer program for selections & testing systems (I'd like to mention it here but not too sure what the rules are with regard to product names etc)

Anyway, since my bank is going in the opposite direction I want it to I am now going to concerntrate my efforts & try my best to stick to a decent staking plan & find myself a system that will hopefully bring my bank back to a breathing status.

With my knowledge of racing being very basic I hope you guys don't barrage me with a load of techno waffle that will simply char my skull & not sink in. bare in mind I am still yet to fully comprehend terms like double down, lay bets, layover etc etc, but hey, thats why I joined here for an education.

In my little world of watching money go with more frequency than it comes I am managing find time to play with data from Jan 2007 to current & test a few systems (None of which seem to be giving me anything worth laying cash on just yet) Its lead me to ponder a few basic questions;

1 - How much data would be considered a reasonable amount (I know you can never have enough but hey, I have to pay by the month!)

2 - What would most of you consider a fair expectation of a return IE; would a 25% win strike rate with a 10% WPOT be something you would work with or should I aim higher.

I'm reasonably happy with action being around 1 selection per day if it came to it but I'm not really sure what is considered average using systems?

Anyway, that's me. Hope to gain some great insights from here, after reading numberous post I think I will learn quite a bit.

Cheers

[Dale]

1 - How much data would be considered a reasonable amount (I know you can never have enough but hey, I have to pay by the month!)



Hi iPunter,


From what i can tell youve got more than enough data,the thing to remember though is that its not the amount of data or even the amount of questions you ask of it but the ability to come up with an angle that others arent looking at,something that gives you an advantage over everybody else.

Failing that youve got to look for very small profit windows and be meticulous in every aspect of your approach to edge out a long term win.

Cheers.

[iPunter]

Hi Dale

Thanks for the reply.

Yeah I figure with the amount of data & programs to trawl that data available today there will be plenty of "Been there done that" senarios around.

Being such a novice may actually have an advantage in that respect, however I still need to know how to recognise a good idea when I fall over it in the dark! :)

I have been finding that when I grill the data via info I've picked up from various sources it does seem to return figures that whilst give good win strike rates don't return very good profit figures. I have a long way to go before I can call myself proficeint at using this program I have but I am getting there.

I guess my main worry at the moment is that I'm not sure what is a good set of returned outlooks. IE if a system I run through the program returns 39% win strike rate, 19% wpot but it only gave back say less than 180 selections over the period 2007 to current then is it really trustworthy results?

Regards

Mik

[Dale]

180 bets isnt enough for me and id go crazy waiting for a betting opportunity with a selection method that selective but thats not to say your not onto something.

Others here should be able to give you more of idea of what to look for to ensure "trustworthy results",in the meantime it would pay to use the search feature and read a few old posts on the subject,dont hesitate to reply and ask questions as im sure theyll be willing to help.

[iPunter]

Ok, I didn't think it would really be enough data.

Actually, most of the systems I've tested seem to bring back that amount of selections or around that, I did a few sums & most look like they produce around one selection per week. Coupled together with several systems I could possibly get around one selection per day between all available races (My program only does Australian races) That wouldn't be totally unacceptable to me, the only thing that worries me is will the data stand up over a longer period? I guess I either fork out for more historical results or wait 10 years before I have a punt eh!

Do you know if its ok to mention the program I have or is that against the site rules (I did look & couldn't see anything about that kind of thing but knowing my luck its probably in bold print at the top somewhere very obvious!)

[Bhagwan]

I reckon you could do a lot worse than targeting horses to run a place in fields of 8-10 runners & go from there.

If relying on systems , one would need to run a few of them at once , because the better systems tend to only have a few bets each month.
i found using 4.5 years of data seems to be enpough data for most systems.

Chop the results into lots of 150 if possible, so as to give us an idea if the system has any long term legs.

I ran over 100 systems all at once, using the GTX program, at one stage.
It was very good , all systems done in a few seconds.

The trick is not to double up on runners mentioned twice, by different systems.

One would go crazy if it was done manually.

[iPunter]

Thanks mate, good advise there. It is actually GTX that I'm using. I will break the search date up like you said.

I did notice one I ran was a complete dud from 2007 to 2008 but then it grew legs in 2009 & 2010 (I couldn't work out what the ******** was going on till I realised I had inadvertantly set the dates to those periods & not what I was previously looking at) So your suggestion definatley makes sense to me. I guess I should have woken up to that when I did it by mistake!

With some education & alot of reading I feel I do have several systems now that may work very well together & provide enough action to enable me to be patient. Sorting out the staking plans is the next big item on my learning list.

Thanks for the replys guys. Sitting at a computer for hours plugging away with a new system kinda sends you a little loopy after awhile. Its nice to know I'm not alone in the task.

[thorns]

Hi iPunter,

The biggest piece of advice I would give you, seeing as you have a database, is think outside of the box. Play with the form factors you have the use of in your database and see what happens. Remember, if you have a horse which ticks all the boxes, good last start, good barrier etc etc, chances are so will everyone else, and as a general rule of thumb, they will win more, but the return as you mentioned above, will be less ie poor value. Thats a very simple way of looking at it, but unless you are pricing your own fields and betting overlays, you have no real idea of if that horse is value or not.

In regards to asking about what a good strike rate it, well that is a completely personal thing. YOu need to be comfortable with your SR, and be sure that when that losing run hits, you still have the confidence (and the bank) left to keep plonking the cash on, the fact is on a 25% SR, at some stage you will hit a losing run of 25+, one of the biggest factors of winning on the punt is discipline, if you hit a bad run you can't just start changing your systems and plonking the dough down on that 'sure' thing your mate down the pub told you about, you have to stick to your guns and be prepared to weather the storm! Winning is easy to cope with, losing is the hard part and where people fail.

Again in regards to POT, that entirely depends on your turnover, some of the biggest punters work off 1-2% POT's but turn over huge volumes to make there money, so its all relative. You could have a system which returns a 90% POT on a 100 bets a year, or a system that returns 2% POT on 300 bets a week, again it all depends on your punting style, myself I prefer high turnover as I love action, and have no interest in only betting 1 horse a day.

Anyway, will stop rambling now.

Cheers

[thorns]

Sorry one last thing, remember that if GTX shows a return of even say -5% POT, if you shop around for prices, Betfair, Best tot/Top fluc bookies etc, you should be able to turn that into a small profit margin (assuming GTX uses TAB prices??).

One of the biggest things in this game is securing the best odds possible!

[iPunter]

Thanks Thorns

Thats all extremley good advice & info. Yes, GTX uses prices from NSW, VIC & QLD (Uni) as well as SP (Not too sure what that one is yet but I'm still learning) I have done several test using each individual TAB and the difference in POT is amazing!

Based on that I decided I will open accounts at all the TAB's (I currently have a NSW & Sportsbet account) Chasing the totes certainly looks to be a major factor.

I also took Bhagwan's suggestion last night & ran some systems in block date runs firstly in 12 month periods & its painfully obvious that a high level disciplin will be required as there were some serious runs of outs between some nice profits. I guess only time will tell how my grit holds up, if I turn to jelly or hold my ground.

Thansk to everyone, this forum is great for someone like me to get a good dose of reality mixed with great advice. Cheers.

[Stix]

I reckon you could do a lot worse than targeting horses to run a place in fields of 8-10 runners & go from there.
Interesting Bhags, that links in with my place betting approach too..... (tick!)

Thanks, for your thoughts...must of known I was looking for an answer to my place betting questions :cool:

[Michal]

Hi iPunter,

Dont chase TAB's , you will never catch them ! Look for best tote and other products like that from corporates. Try betfair, there you have a choise of many like vic tab, some kind of best tote product and ofcourse their exchange prices. The reason the TAB are a bad idea is that the prices can change, and they do change. Everyone has access to all 3 totes and what is everyone else going to do ? Put their money on the highest paying tote at the time that they punt. Just like you ! Watchingh it , I can usually determine which is the lowest TAB by watching for the best price ! Often there is a large discrepancy between NSW and VIC as the corporates lay of bets and so on one of these can often finish paying $1.04 while the other pays $1.3 ....... happens all the time.

Save your self the hustle and bet best tote especially while your bets are small

Michal

[Bundy]

G'Day iPunter

Just a tip from an old time GTX user.

Here is what I do to find a plan and to keep it "current".

First of all find a plan that you are happy with that has shown good consistent results that does not rely on longshots to keep it in front over the last 12 months.

Okay, lets say for example that you trialed it from 14th November 2009 to 14th November 2010. Now, run the plan for the period 14th November 2009 to 14th May 2010, write down those results (strike rate, pot, etc etc) now for that period go back through every parameter that you have used, unclick each one, one at a time, and rerun the plan, check if there are any subtle changes you could implement for each parameter and if so change it accordingly eg you may have had the Jockey Penalty set to include 0.00 to 3, you may find for that 6 month period that you could have included 0.00 to 4.0...you with me here?

Now, once you have done that for each parameter run the plan for the period 14th December to 14th June and do the same checking as above...what you are doing, in effect, is keeping the plan "current" for the past 6 months of racing, something I believe is crucial to any plan.

I, in fact, actually do it on the past 3 months of racing but 6 months is good.

So what I will do for the 'City to Bush" plan that you will see posted on another thread of that name is run it from 14th August to 14th November and any changes made there will be the new "current" plan...I will check it on the 14th of every month.

Doing the above ensures that the basic plan stays to the pattern of racing that we are currently experiencing and will assist in keeping your plan in tune with those patterns.

Give it a shot...
Cheers
Bundy

[iPunter]

Bundy

Thanks for that mate its invaluable for a novice like me.

So am I correct in assuming that you would save each set of subtle changes as different plans & then implement them according to what time of year it is?

IE - If you found that Jan to June there was an increase in the strike rate from say the 4th barrier (Assuming you had the initial one set at 1st to 3rd barrier only, but during the second half of the year the results indicate barrier 4 was a no go in terms of good results, then you would save a rule which included barrier 4 but only ran that set of rules during the first half of the year & then in the second half of the year you ran another set of rules which excluded barrier 4?

Maybe I'm being to broad here but I'm just trying to get the gist of what you're saying correct!

Expanding on that, possibly then you may find rules that only work at certain tracks or states, you could then modify each one according to its better results for each parameter it is better suited to?

I think GTX is pretty good, I haven't seen any of the super expensive programs that do similar things, but from what I've seen so far it looks to provide enough information to be able to assist in educating me through narrowing down winners versus losers & then I guess its down to plain old hard yakka sorting through the results individually to try & help me understand why some horses win in certain situations & others don't. To me that would be a brilliant result even if I never actually get a system directly from GTX that consistantly produces if it teaches me about horse racing then its a winner for me.

Thanks for all the replys, the information here may be basic knowledge but its fantastic to be able to ask what others think that know more than I do about racing & systems. I live under a rock in terms of exposure to the jargon & if most of my friends knew I invested the time I do & lay down some cash on a regular basis they would think I were twisted & needed help. I always invest within my means but to the average Joe outside racing circles I think its looked apon as "Gambling" no matter how you approach it.

Nice to be in company with like minds in here.

:)

[Bhagwan]

It wasnt that long ago that banks would sprook for clients to take out loans to bet on the stock market.

They wouldnt let you do it for Horse racing, because they thought that was gambling , but not the stock market, because thats investing.

You notice they dont call it that, now .

We could have told them that for nought.

If using multiple selection plans on the GTX , I would bet 1/200th or 1/250th of bank adjusted up & down daily, because one will experience runs of 20+ outs , this is normal.

Try & acheive a SR of approx 23-25% on any of the plans , if not , drop it.
The lower the SR the greater the expected run of outs.

Another very powerful rule to use on most of your systems that you are going to create is this...
Using the pre-post market built into GTX , have it set where the selection has to be $3.25+ in its pre-post market.
This single rule cuts out a lot of dead wood where runners have high SRs but no profit to be had.

One thing I found facinating using GTX, was that horses that ran or won at the track or distance , made very little difference to the figures when competing against those that did not have the same experience.
It gave the impression that an Urban myth had been revieled.

Another was Resuming horses with a proven track record of doing well usualy performed poorly on the day if they had been successfull 2+ times before.
the horse that were successfull 0-1 performed stronger... go figure.

With the importance of value to be secured , rather that dealing with the TABs for the reasons already mentioned, I have found BetEzy to be very good, where bets as as low as .10 cents can be made & they offer best of 3 TABs on most events.
This saves you the hassel of having 3 TAB accounts, even if you had 3 accounts , one would stand no chance of securing the best price because of the constant price changes, even when the race is in running , because of the 90 sec loop of time.

[thorns]

iPunter,


Re the barrier draw example you have given, to me that would be back fitting. Unless you had huge samples which showed a definite drop or rise in strike rate on the change of months (even then its something I woudl not use), I would not bother with that, you are just asking for long term failure. The biggest thing is make your rules logical, saying bet barrier 4 in Jan, March, July and October becasue previous data shows it to be good, is not going to work long term, its more down to every punters 'favourite' word.... VARIANCE.

[Bhagwan]

When I was talking about batches of 150 , I used it in batches of 150 races which the program can sort for you.

Heres a GTX plan I invented with my own brain that made solid profits nearly every month.
Its rules a qwerky to say the least , but it pulls many big payers, 7 days a week.

RULES
Target races with 10 runners exactly.
Price 3.25-25.00 in pre-post market as shown in GTX
Delete resumers.
Must not been placed in any of its last 3 starts.
Include first starters.
Bet all selections.

There will be approx 3-5 selections per race.
Bet same amount on all of them.

One thing that I found strange, over the 4.5 years of data, the plan failed to show a profit in race No. 7 on any meeting, betting 7 days a week over hundreds of selections...weird.
All the other race numbers showed a profit over the same period.

[iPunter]

Folks thats all brilliant info & I thank you for passing it on. I am currently on a very steep learning curve so you'll have to excuse me if I sound a little vague on some responces, its just that I'm studying the ideas as I read them & for me that takes time :)

One question which has been plaguing me & I have been a little sheepish to ask as it will reveal just how green I am here, but I can't avoid it any longer.

Race class? Whats the story with the class numbers? I'm having trouble determining if a horse raced in say a RB75 last race, and its now running in an RB62 has it gone up in class or down? I've searched everywhere trying to find a clue as to how the system works but I can't for the life of me find anything that points out what is more than likely very obvious.

If someone can point me in the direction of race class explainations I'd be eternally grateful & more than willing to offer the majestic reward of one whole packet of fruit tingles for the info.

Cheers

[TheSchmile]

Hi ipunter,

The higher the benchmark number, in theory, the better the quality of the runners.

So in your example RB75 is better class than RB62. A horse going from an RB75 to an RB62 will generally carry more weight than their last start as they are going down in class.

It is more complicated than this as they took a while to refine the system but for some scintillating late night reading, check out the Racing NSW explanation of the benchmark system:

Benchmark System (http://www.racingnsw.com.au/site/_content/document/00000301-source.pdf)

My general advice for starting out:

- Keep your money in your pocket until you have a good grasp of weights, times, class etc.
- Stick to one States racing. Get to know the horses running there and their patterns of racing. Do they perform first-up, need a few runs, prefer certain tracks etc. That goes for trainers and jockeys also.
- Start making prices for your horses or find a service that does it accurately. Ask questions - why is a horse shorter or longer than I predicted. You need to feel confident going against the crowd. Other punters are your enemies (in the nicest possible way). ha ha
- The harder you work, the luckier you'll get
- Start a bank and stick to level stakes
- Always seek the best prices for your investments
- Alcohol and investing on horse racing don't mix.

Best of luck!

The Schmile

[iPunter]

Hi ipunter,

Alcohol and investing on horse racing don't mix.

The Schmile
!!!!!!!

Awe bummer, that's just thrown my entire drunken pin the tail on the horsey system then! :P

Thanks for the link, I'll check it out. I am (And freely admit to it) gambling a little at the moment, you're advise on no investmenst till I have a grip on things is very solid advise, however for me I know I can trust myself with a few small wagers here & there (Proven systems with a little return for my pocket money) as I feel it keeps my interest for the long haul. Whilst "gambling" tiny amounts & seeing some winners & losers it gives me a bit of hands on experience without breaking my eventual investment bank. If you saw the amount of spread sheet formulas & various folders full of tests I've done in my short time I think you'd agree I don't fit the form of a total mug just yet.

In all honesty its been a very daunting task for me to learn the numbers involved as my math is pretty poor. I have been fortunate enough to have been forced (through work) to learn a few basic computer skills which are helping me to stay focused on the bottom line of all this effort. Whilst it may take me 28 attempts to create a simple excel formula at least I can do it & doing that means I do get a taste of how bad things could get if I let my head go on the investment side of things. Forcast calculations certainly can be heartbreaking when you watch something you thought was a good thing slowly degrade into a pile of horrible red numbers.

So I'll do my best to keep a level head & wear down this deficit of experience in the meantime. Cheers

[TheSchmile]

Awe bummer, that's just thrown my entire drunken pin the tail on the horsey system then! :P

Nice one ipunter! ha ha

I'm not trying to be a wet blanket, just speaking from experience. If you're going to get legless, put your investments on early and then focus on good times.

You seem like you have a good sense of humour, something also vital when your selection gets pipped on the post after leading all the way and kicking 3 lengths clear in the straight, as all of us have experienced.

Once again, best of luck with your journey, you're going about it the right way asking lots of questions.

The Schmile

[iPunter]

Just a quick note to let those that have given advice I have taken on board whats been said & also continued to read various articles, posts & info to help get my knowledge up. It certainly has been an interesting few weeks & I'm loving the whole learning experience. One thing I've put to good use is the mantra of watching as much racing as you can stomach. Yesterday was the best day I've had yet. Using my systems to highlight potential selections I found if I coupled that info with watching & re-watching replays of as many runners in the fields as I could get a hold of the myst began to clear a little & I saw a few little gems in the basket I snatched up.

After 17 selections I'm running at 29% strike rate with 5 winners & a WPOT of 42%

Excitingly (Or maybe not if I were hanging my hat on systems selections only) 3 of my runners were selections I chose from watching replays & they actually went against my selections. Having said that, using that setup got me heart stoppingly close to 2 trifectas which missed by one place on both accounts. The divis were huge & I'm not at all dissapointed that I lost but more excited about how close I was to getting it right. That for me says oodles for my learning curve.

Thanks for your input & advice, its helped get me level headed about my approach & more importantly is helping me to move away from mug punter status & into educated punter ranks. I feel good about that.

Cheers

(PS - no need to worry about my head getting too big just yet folks, I know I'll be sure to get knocked down a peg or two sooner rather than later :) )