Betfair S.P vs IAS Super Price.

[michaelg]

I don't know if the webmaster will allow this, but unlike Julian I am not disclosing info from stolen goods.

All I'm doing is comparing dividends.

I'm a big fan of Betfair S.P, and am doing very well backing about 70 - 80% of the field in selected races.

I have today bet on 9 races and currently am showing a profit. If I had bet on IAS Supertab the return would have been $67.52, but with Betfair S.P the return is currently $91.00 which is according to my calcs a 34% increase in profit, and this includes Betfair's take-out.

I have been using a particular selection method for the past 3 days, and if I had bet every horse in the selected races on Betfair S.P. I then would have won all three days. Even today I can't lose in "the back every horse" method.

[Bhagwan]

Who is Julian?

What stolen good?

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan.

Isn't he the owner of Wikileaks? And I stand corrected if his controversial info hasn't been stolen.

[Bhagwan]

Oh! that Julian.

Releasing leaked reports, which happens to reporters all the time.

But can he pick a winner, that's the important bit.

[michaelg]

Very true, but wasn't the info stolen?

Coming back to Betfair S.P. - over the three days the TAB is showing a profit of $8.90 but with Betfair a profit of $107.85 which is a huge difference . I don't know how the other betting features available i.e the best of the three TABs, etc, would compare, but yesterday looking at IAS Super TAB it would be doubtful they would come close to matching Betfair S.P.

[TheSchmile]

Nice work Michael G,

I wish you every success, you thoroughly deserve it!!

Any new systems in the pipeline to keep us interested?

The Schmile

[Michal]

Hi Michael,

How big are your bets ? Is this feasible for a punter betting in the hundreds ? I dont quite understand the SP price but isnt it suseptable to peoples predatory odds ? Like asking too much or offereing too little ?

Often these type of bets are great based on pretend bets but when money goes on they usually disapper like a fart in a blanket. What you are reporting here is nothing short of sensational. Im not disputing it just asking.

Also are your bets in the upper or lower end of the market ?

Michal

[michaelg]

Hi, TheSchmile.

I have two other methods which are in profit at the moment.

In Oz its a Place method. There have so far been 98 selections for 85 placegetters giving a 86% strike rate and a 11% POT. Unfortunately I have not kept records on Win betting, but over the past few days I noticed it has outperformed Place betting.

The second method is in the U.K. which is a Lay method on Place betting. There have currently been 187 selections for 67 smiles for a 16% POT. There is no form study at all, so I therefore at this moment have to assume that there is a weakness in their market.

I am waiting for many more selections on both methods to see if they continue to perform. If so, I will probably list the rules.

Michal, I have been betting S.P. with real money the minimum allowable of $5.00. Over the past three days my profit (real betting) is around $500.

[TheSchmile]

Hi Michal,

The SP prices can sometimes be a bit random, however they're usually pretty reliable. It's an intricate calculation based on the prices requested for bets and lays on each particular horse before the race.

There is a function with Betfair SP, where you can set minimum acceptable price, which will stop you from getting burned. I really like this function as you can put your bets on in the morning, go to work and not worry that you'll have to take whatever price is on offer, as you would if betting with the TAB.

I only bet in $5-20 units so couldn't tell you about betting in larger amounts.

Hope this is of assistance and if you have any questions at all, give me a holler.

The Schmile

[michaelg]

I might be wrong but I've noticed over the past few days the S.P. price has been identical to the last price matched on Betfair. However, I've only checked a few random horses when their S.P. price flashes up on the screen during the running of the race.

If this is really the case where the S.P. matches the last price traded, then that could be somewhat risky for Betfair especially if/when there are distorted amounts in either the Buy or Sell sections of the S.P.

[Raven]

Hard to knock BF SP.

I'm keeping a running tally on all my system selections this year, comparing NSW TAB, my Luxbet div, & BF SP. I'm actually hedging my bets, 50% staked on Lux & the other 50% at BF SP.

BFSP is in front of Lux at the moment, but admittedly that is all because of my longest price winner, that was $27.90 on Lux & $41.29 at BF SP. At the shorter price range Lux is doing slightly better.

NSW TAB Return: $90.20
Luxbet Return: $101.40
BF SP Return: $106.75 (5% commission taken out)

Already 11 units or 16 units in front of NSW TAB, thats going to make a huge difference to my bottom line over the course of the year.

I'm clearly a BF SP fan. I can put my bets on the night before, stipulate a minimum price, something Lux does not offer, and not worry about closing my account if i happen to keep winning. Im a small punter too, so all my bets get set.