Method for S.P. Betting?

[michaelg]

Here's a method I've been looking at on and off for some time but never bet because I checked only TAB results which showed them luke-warm. But now because of Betfair's availble S.P. facility I recently fine-tuned the method, checked a few results from recent racing which happened to show promise, and consequently began betting on Monday.

Since then there have been 19 races for 11 winners. There has been a total of 107 selections, each of which I backed for $5 on Betfair S.P. The outlay has been $535 and more importantly, the return over the three days has been $725 which is a 35% POT. The profit betting with the TAB would have been $39.50, or 7%.

The rules are very simple:

1) Minimum of 13 starters.
2) Every horse with at least two career starts.
3) Back every horse that is $11 or less in the Telegraph (Way2Bet) market.

Admittedly, there have been two winners that paid over $30 which obviousally has distorted the results, but hopefully these winners will pop up and every now and then.

I'll list the seletions today and see how they go. Hopefully the Forum Curse will leave the method alone.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Launceston
R4 nos. 3, 6, 10, 12
R5 nos. 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9

Toowoomba
R4 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
R6 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 13
R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 11, 12

Seymour
R7 nos. 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
R8 nos. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

Fingers crossed.

Bunbury R8 might be a qualifier, depending on the scratchings. If it qualifies I'll list the selections when the scratchings are known.

[michaelg]

Bunbury R8 is a qualifier.

The selections are:
Nos. 1, 3, 6, 8, 11

Total outlay $48.

[wesmip1]

Michaelg,

Nice easy method. Hope it goes well. I don't store way2bet prepost prices so can't back test for you.

Another one for you :

CP Rank = 1 (From neurals)
Minimum acceptable price = $10

Had 1340 bets and returned $1631 after commission on $1 bets.

Good Luck with your system.

[thorns]

Interesting Michael,

I ran this using a different pre post (default Bet Selector market) and found that runnning it on price ranges of $10-50 (NSW TAB), showed a POT of 6.5%, low strike rate of only 12.4%, but still a nice profit there, especially considering we know how often you can get massive overs via Betfair in the higher ranges. Under $10 showed about the standard 15% LOT at TAB prices.

Might work out different for the Waybet pre post, but something to perhaps look into.

Cheers

[michaelg]

Thorns, the price range of $10 to $50 shows according to your data a POT of 6.5% with the TAB.

In this range there is such a price discrepancy with Betfair S.P.

It's because of these high prices that my 70-80% method is continuing to perform. Currently there have been 82 winners from 93 races (737 selections/bets). I omit the Tele fave because it is unpredictable in both performance and divvies, and at this time I have no intentions in introducing it.

The profit with S.P. is $847.80 but the results with the TAB is a loss of $104.70. It is a profit of 24% compared to a loss of 14%. According to this, your 6.5% POT would be amazing.

I believe the Tele and Way2Bet markets are identical, but I leave the latter alone as it seems to adversley affect my computer.

[michaelg]

Yesterday was a losing day for the 13-plus method - it lost $55.40. Surprisingly there was not much difference with the TAB and Betfair results.

Hopefully it will pick up today.

Wagga
R1 nos. 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11
R2 nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 12
R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10

Orange
R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10

Ipswich
R9 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8

Ballarat
R6 nos. 1, 3, 7, 10, 11

Outlay $245.