Betfair price % advantage

[thorns]

Hoping Wesmip or someone with a database can help me out here. We know that Betfair throw around the 20% better than TAB's figure as there main advantage in advertisements around the place. We also know that alot of that is down to those longer priced horses which get up at 2-3 times teh TAB price. Can anyone tell me the normal advantage BF prices have at the shorter end of the market, ie for horses $0-$5 on the TAB, 5-10, and 10-15?

Just got me thinking, if it was correct that you got 20% better long term, would I be correct in thinking that to be able to lay horses sucesfuly, you would need to be showing around a 30% LOT at TAB prices? I figure, markets run at 102% (give or take), plus you are offering 20% more than TAB, and then paying 5% comission as well which would with a 30% LOT at TAB, you should be showing a 3% POT laying?

This is some thinking after a bottle of red, and has got me confused as all ************y wether I am right in my maths there or not, doesn't quite seem right to me, but cant think of it any other way at the moment.

Any help on my questions?

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

You are correct with that -30% figure on the TAB.

If one is inventing Lay systems of their own, using say a data base like OnlineSystemBuilder (Free- Google)
We need to see a resulting figure of -30 to - 40% LOT because they are using TAB prices.

[wesmip1]

Keep in mind these are the results I recorded. I have provided two sets of figures. The first is if you wanted to bet the numbers. This is the price that was available . The list is Price, unitab price, betfair price, betfair price/unitab price. This is before commission has been taken out. It is rounded to the nearest dollar.


<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>1</TD><TD>97.2</TD><TD>107.71</TD><TD>1.108128</TD></TR><TR><TD>2</TD><TD>1902.8</TD><TD>2230.65</TD><TD>1.172299</TD></TR><TR><TD>3</TD><TD>3508.2</TD><TD>4079.79</TD><TD>1.16293</TD></TR><TR><TD>4</TD><TD>4175.3</TD><TD>4778.95</TD><TD>1.144576</TD></TR><TR><TD>5</TD><TD>4110</TD><TD>4727.01</TD><TD>1.150124</TD></TR><TR><TD>6</TD><TD>3970.9</TD><TD>4644.47</TD><TD>1.169627</TD></TR><TR><TD>7</TD><TD>3054.7</TD><TD>3509.39</TD><TD>1.148849</TD></TR><TR><TD>8</TD><TD>3207.1</TD><TD>3734.7</TD><TD>1.16451</TD></TR><TR><TD>9</TD><TD>2294.5</TD><TD>2558.35</TD><TD>1.114992</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>2431.5</TD><TD>2810.54</TD><TD>1.155887</TD></TR><TR><TD>11</TD><TD>2108</TD><TD>2364.32</TD><TD>1.121594</TD></TR><TR><TD>12</TD><TD>2036.8</TD><TD>2375.62</TD><TD>1.166349</TD></TR><TR><TD>13</TD><TD>1594.7</TD><TD>1772.24</TD><TD>1.111331</TD></TR><TR><TD>14</TD><TD>1618.3</TD><TD>1819.42</TD><TD>1.124279</TD></TR><TR><TD>15</TD><TD>1420.2</TD><TD>1643.19</TD><TD>1.157013</TD></TR><TR><TD>16</TD><TD>1168</TD><TD>1342.7</TD><TD>1.149572</TD></TR><TR><TD>17</TD><TD>1424.7</TD><TD>1518.12</TD><TD>1.065572</TD></TR><TR><TD>18</TD><TD>1326.7</TD><TD>1485.42</TD><TD>1.119635</TD></TR><TR><TD>19</TD><TD>1043.3</TD><TD>1264.3</TD><TD>1.211828</TD></TR><TR><TD>20</TD><TD>1038.7</TD><TD>1182.8</TD><TD>1.138731</TD></TR><TR><TD>21</TD><TD>1065.3</TD><TD>1232</TD><TD>1.156482</TD></TR><TR><TD>22</TD><TD>723.8</TD><TD>852</TD><TD>1.177121</TD></TR><TR><TD>23</TD><TD>735.9</TD><TD>871</TD><TD>1.183585</TD></TR><TR><TD>24</TD><TD>667.4</TD><TD>767.5</TD><TD>1.149985</TD></TR><TR><TD>25</TD><TD>724.1</TD><TD>791.92</TD><TD>1.093661</TD></TR><TR><TD>26</TD><TD>440.6</TD><TD>467</TD><TD>1.059918</TD></TR><TR><TD>27</TD><TD>807.9</TD><TD>1052</TD><TD>1.302141</TD></TR><TR><TD>28</TD><TD>616.6</TD><TD>837.5</TD><TD>1.358255</TD></TR><TR><TD>29</TD><TD>813.7</TD><TD>850.3</TD><TD>1.04498</TD></TR><TR><TD>30</TD><TD>508.9</TD><TD>620.5</TD><TD>1.219297</TD></TR><TR><TD>31</TD><TD>558.2</TD><TD>527.5</TD><TD>0.945002</TD></TR><TR><TD>32</TD><TD>543</TD><TD>621.42</TD><TD>1.14442</TD></TR><TR><TD>33</TD><TD>693.4</TD><TD>842.92</TD><TD>1.215633</TD></TR><TR><TD>34</TD><TD>441.4</TD><TD>546</TD><TD>1.236973</TD></TR><TR><TD>35</TD><TD>421.8</TD><TD>493</TD><TD>1.1688</TD></TR><TR><TD>36</TD><TD>395.9</TD><TD>490</TD><TD>1.237686</TD></TR><TR><TD>37</TD><TD>445.3</TD><TD>507</TD><TD>1.138558</TD></TR><TR><TD>38</TD><TD>416.9</TD><TD>379</TD><TD>0.909091</TD></TR><TR><TD>39</TD><TD>389.1</TD><TD>484</TD><TD>1.243896</TD></TR><TR><TD>40</TD><TD>319.1</TD><TD>346</TD><TD>1.0843</TD></TR><TR><TD>41</TD><TD>246.2</TD><TD>275</TD><TD>1.116978</TD></TR><TR><TD>42</TD><TD>377.4</TD><TD>449</TD><TD>1.189719</TD></TR><TR><TD>43</TD><TD>129.6</TD><TD>141</TD><TD>1.087963</TD></TR><TR><TD>44</TD><TD>132.8</TD><TD>132</TD><TD>0.993976</TD></TR><TR><TD>45</TD><TD>270.1</TD><TD>237</TD><TD>0.877453</TD></TR><TR><TD>46</TD><TD>274.9</TD><TD>235.2</TD><TD>0.855584</TD></TR><TR><TD>47</TD><TD>187.5</TD><TD>184</TD><TD>0.981333</TD></TR><TR><TD>48</TD><TD>336.5</TD><TD>374</TD><TD>1.111441</TD></TR><TR><TD>49</TD><TD>146.6</TD><TD>146</TD><TD>0.995907</TD></TR><TR><TD>50</TD><TD>199.1</TD><TD>281</TD><TD>1.411351</TD></TR><TR><TD>51</TD><TD>358.3</TD><TD>532</TD><TD>1.484789</TD></TR><TR><TD>52</TD><TD>260.2</TD><TD>290</TD><TD>1.114527</TD></TR><TR><TD>53</TD><TD>105.7</TD><TD>71</TD><TD>0.671712</TD></TR><TR><TD>54</TD><TD>162.3</TD><TD>151</TD><TD>0.930376</TD></TR><TR><TD>55</TD><TD>330.2</TD><TD>344</TD><TD>1.041793</TD></TR><TR><TD>56</TD><TD>111.6</TD><TD>115</TD><TD>1.030466</TD></TR><TR><TD>57</TD><TD>113.3</TD><TD>125</TD><TD>1.103266</TD></TR><TR><TD>58</TD><TD>57.7</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>1.213172</TD></TR><TR><TD>59</TD><TD>117.3</TD><TD>78</TD><TD>0.664962</TD></TR><TR><TD>60</TD><TD>239.7</TD><TD>209</TD><TD>0.871923</TD></TR><TR><TD>62</TD><TD>123.8</TD><TD>145</TD><TD>1.171244</TD></TR><TR><TD>63</TD><TD>126.2</TD><TD>67</TD><TD>0.530903</TD></TR><TR><TD>64</TD><TD>191.5</TD><TD>230</TD><TD>1.201044</TD></TR><TR><TD>66</TD><TD>263.9</TD><TD>318</TD><TD>1.205002</TD></TR><TR><TD>67</TD><TD>66.6</TD><TD>70</TD><TD>1.051051</TD></TR><TR><TD>68</TD><TD>68.4</TD><TD>80</TD><TD>1.169591</TD></TR><TR><TD>69</TD><TD>68.8</TD><TD>5.1</TD><TD>0.074128</TD></TR><TR><TD>70</TD><TD>69.8</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>1.289398</TD></TR><TR><TD>71</TD><TD>71.3</TD><TD>44</TD><TD>0.617111</TD></TR><TR><TD>72</TD><TD>71.8</TD><TD>2.42</TD><TD>0.033705</TD></TR><TR><TD>75</TD><TD>74.7</TD><TD>42</TD><TD>0.562249</TD></TR><TR><TD>77</TD><TD>77.2</TD><TD>50</TD><TD>0.647668</TD></TR><TR><TD>78</TD><TD>155.1</TD><TD>215</TD><TD>1.386202</TD></TR><TR><TD>79</TD><TD>79.2</TD><TD>150</TD><TD>1.893939</TD></TR><TR><TD>80</TD><TD>79.5</TD><TD>120</TD><TD>1.509434</TD></TR><TR><TD>85</TD><TD>255.1</TD><TD>360</TD><TD>1.411211</TD></TR><TR><TD>86</TD><TD>171.6</TD><TD>160</TD><TD>0.932401</TD></TR><TR><TD>88</TD><TD>87.7</TD><TD>110</TD><TD>1.254276</TD></TR><TR><TD>89</TD><TD>88.9</TD><TD>120</TD><TD>1.349831</TD></TR><TR><TD>91</TD><TD>90.8</TD><TD>90</TD><TD>0.991189</TD></TR><TR><TD>98</TD><TD>97.6</TD><TD>140</TD><TD>1.434426</TD></TR><TR><TD>111</TD><TD>110.7</TD><TD>210</TD><TD>1.897019</TD></TR><TR><TD>114</TD><TD>114</TD><TD>260</TD><TD>2.280702</TD></TR><TR><TD>130</TD><TD>130</TD><TD>340</TD><TD>2.615385</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[wesmip1]

If you wanted to lay the horse these are the odds which you could have layed at. Same criteria as before.

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>1</TD><TD>97.2</TD><TD>108.64</TD><TD>1.117695</TD></TR><TR><TD>2</TD><TD>1902.8</TD><TD>4121.74</TD><TD>2.166145</TD></TR><TR><TD>3</TD><TD>3508.2</TD><TD>4377.32</TD><TD>1.24774</TD></TR><TR><TD>4</TD><TD>4175.3</TD><TD>6136.69</TD><TD>1.46976</TD></TR><TR><TD>5</TD><TD>4114.6</TD><TD>6112.44</TD><TD>1.485549</TD></TR><TR><TD>6</TD><TD>3970.9</TD><TD>5183.4</TD><TD>1.305346</TD></TR><TR><TD>7</TD><TD>3054.7</TD><TD>4765.8</TD><TD>1.560153</TD></TR><TR><TD>8</TD><TD>3207.1</TD><TD>5135</TD><TD>1.601135</TD></TR><TR><TD>9</TD><TD>2294.5</TD><TD>3006.1</TD><TD>1.310133</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>2431.5</TD><TD>3168.4</TD><TD>1.303064</TD></TR><TR><TD>11</TD><TD>2108</TD><TD>2843.7</TD><TD>1.349004</TD></TR><TR><TD>12</TD><TD>2036.8</TD><TD>2868.9</TD><TD>1.408533</TD></TR><TR><TD>13</TD><TD>1594.7</TD><TD>2313.75</TD><TD>1.4509</TD></TR><TR><TD>14</TD><TD>1618.3</TD><TD>2246.5</TD><TD>1.388185</TD></TR><TR><TD>15</TD><TD>1420.2</TD><TD>2000</TD><TD>1.408252</TD></TR><TR><TD>16</TD><TD>1168</TD><TD>1684.9</TD><TD>1.442551</TD></TR><TR><TD>17</TD><TD>1424.7</TD><TD>1983</TD><TD>1.391872</TD></TR><TR><TD>18</TD><TD>1326.7</TD><TD>2343</TD><TD>1.766036</TD></TR><TR><TD>19</TD><TD>1043.3</TD><TD>1736</TD><TD>1.663951</TD></TR><TR><TD>20</TD><TD>1038.7</TD><TD>1444.5</TD><TD>1.390681</TD></TR><TR><TD>21</TD><TD>1065.3</TD><TD>1455.5</TD><TD>1.366282</TD></TR><TR><TD>22</TD><TD>723.8</TD><TD>1113.5</TD><TD>1.538408</TD></TR><TR><TD>23</TD><TD>735.9</TD><TD>1295.5</TD><TD>1.760429</TD></TR><TR><TD>24</TD><TD>667.4</TD><TD>1026</TD><TD>1.537309</TD></TR><TR><TD>25</TD><TD>724.1</TD><TD>1173.5</TD><TD>1.620633</TD></TR><TR><TD>26</TD><TD>440.6</TD><TD>575</TD><TD>1.305039</TD></TR><TR><TD>27</TD><TD>807.9</TD><TD>1471</TD><TD>1.82077</TD></TR><TR><TD>28</TD><TD>616.6</TD><TD>1101</TD><TD>1.785598</TD></TR><TR><TD>29</TD><TD>813.7</TD><TD>1518</TD><TD>1.865552</TD></TR><TR><TD>30</TD><TD>508.9</TD><TD>880</TD><TD>1.72922</TD></TR><TR><TD>31</TD><TD>558.2</TD><TD>855</TD><TD>1.531709</TD></TR><TR><TD>32</TD><TD>543</TD><TD>799</TD><TD>1.471455</TD></TR><TR><TD>33</TD><TD>693.4</TD><TD>1180</TD><TD>1.701759</TD></TR><TR><TD>34</TD><TD>441.4</TD><TD>826</TD><TD>1.871319</TD></TR><TR><TD>35</TD><TD>421.8</TD><TD>765</TD><TD>1.813656</TD></TR><TR><TD>36</TD><TD>395.9</TD><TD>696</TD><TD>1.75802</TD></TR><TR><TD>37</TD><TD>445.3</TD><TD>782</TD><TD>1.756119</TD></TR><TR><TD>38</TD><TD>416.9</TD><TD>491</TD><TD>1.17774</TD></TR><TR><TD>39</TD><TD>389.1</TD><TD>686</TD><TD>1.763043</TD></TR><TR><TD>40</TD><TD>319.1</TD><TD>469</TD><TD>1.469759</TD></TR><TR><TD>41</TD><TD>246.2</TD><TD>380</TD><TD>1.543461</TD></TR><TR><TD>42</TD><TD>377.4</TD><TD>702.52</TD><TD>1.861473</TD></TR><TR><TD>43</TD><TD>129.6</TD><TD>180</TD><TD>1.388889</TD></TR><TR><TD>44</TD><TD>132.8</TD><TD>145</TD><TD>1.091867</TD></TR><TR><TD>45</TD><TD>270.1</TD><TD>275</TD><TD>1.018141</TD></TR><TR><TD>46</TD><TD>274.9</TD><TD>416</TD><TD>1.513278</TD></TR><TR><TD>47</TD><TD>187.5</TD><TD>370</TD><TD>1.973333</TD></TR><TR><TD>48</TD><TD>336.5</TD><TD>487</TD><TD>1.447251</TD></TR><TR><TD>49</TD><TD>146.6</TD><TD>185</TD><TD>1.261937</TD></TR><TR><TD>50</TD><TD>199.1</TD><TD>638</TD><TD>3.20442</TD></TR><TR><TD>51</TD><TD>358.3</TD><TD>871</TD><TD>2.430924</TD></TR><TR><TD>52</TD><TD>260.2</TD><TD>390</TD><TD>1.498847</TD></TR><TR><TD>53</TD><TD>105.7</TD><TD>298</TD><TD>2.8193</TD></TR><TR><TD>54</TD><TD>162.3</TD><TD>186</TD><TD>1.146026</TD></TR><TR><TD>55</TD><TD>330.2</TD><TD>640</TD><TD>1.938219</TD></TR><TR><TD>56</TD><TD>111.6</TD><TD>130</TD><TD>1.164875</TD></TR><TR><TD>57</TD><TD>113.3</TD><TD>140</TD><TD>1.235658</TD></TR><TR><TD>58</TD><TD>57.7</TD><TD>110</TD><TD>1.906412</TD></TR><TR><TD>59</TD><TD>117.3</TD><TD>200</TD><TD>1.70503</TD></TR><TR><TD>60</TD><TD>239.7</TD><TD>445</TD><TD>1.856487</TD></TR><TR><TD>62</TD><TD>123.8</TD><TD>225</TD><TD>1.817447</TD></TR><TR><TD>63</TD><TD>126.2</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>1.347068</TD></TR><TR><TD>64</TD><TD>191.5</TD><TD>505</TD><TD>2.637076</TD></TR><TR><TD>66</TD><TD>263.9</TD><TD>485</TD><TD>1.837817</TD></TR><TR><TD>67</TD><TD>66.6</TD><TD>75</TD><TD>1.126126</TD></TR><TR><TD>68</TD><TD>68.4</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>1.388889</TD></TR><TR><TD>69</TD><TD>68.8</TD><TD>290</TD><TD>4.215116</TD></TR><TR><TD>70</TD><TD>69.8</TD><TD>200</TD><TD>2.86533</TD></TR><TR><TD>71</TD><TD>71.3</TD><TD>320</TD><TD>4.488079</TD></TR><TR><TD>72</TD><TD>71.8</TD><TD>95</TD><TD>1.32312</TD></TR><TR><TD>75</TD><TD>74.7</TD><TD>150</TD><TD>2.008032</TD></TR><TR><TD>77</TD><TD>77.2</TD><TD>120</TD><TD>1.554404</TD></TR><TR><TD>78</TD><TD>155.1</TD><TD>280</TD><TD>1.805287</TD></TR><TR><TD>79</TD><TD>79.2</TD><TD>280</TD><TD>3.535354</TD></TR><TR><TD>80</TD><TD>79.5</TD><TD>150</TD><TD>1.886792</TD></TR><TR><TD>85</TD><TD>255.1</TD><TD>520</TD><TD>2.038416</TD></TR><TR><TD>86</TD><TD>171.6</TD><TD>195</TD><TD>1.136364</TD></TR><TR><TD>88</TD><TD>87.7</TD><TD>140</TD><TD>1.596351</TD></TR><TR><TD>89</TD><TD>88.9</TD><TD>230</TD><TD>2.587177</TD></TR><TR><TD>91</TD><TD>90.8</TD><TD>130</TD><TD>1.431718</TD></TR><TR><TD>98</TD><TD>97.6</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>1.741803</TD></TR><TR><TD>111</TD><TD>110.7</TD><TD>290</TD><TD>2.619693</TD></TR><TR><TD>114</TD><TD>114</TD><TD>440</TD><TD>3.859649</TD></TR><TR><TD>130</TD><TD>130</TD><TD>810</TD><TD>6.230769</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[wesmip1]

I am sure you noticed the difference in prices and the % difference to unitab based on whether you wanted to bet or lay. It can be a huge difference.

I have done it rounded to $10 here as well so you can see the difference easier:

If you wanted to lay.

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD><5</TD><TD>11740.2</TD><TD>18232.24</TD><TD>1.552975</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>25049.9</TD><TD>35086.14</TD><TD>1.40065</TD></TR><TR><TD>20</TD><TD>10234.2</TD><TD>15600.4</TD><TD>1.52434</TD></TR><TR><TD>30</TD><TD>5921.6</TD><TD>10150</TD><TD>1.714064</TD></TR><TR><TD>40</TD><TD>3293.9</TD><TD>5211.52</TD><TD>1.582173</TD></TR><TR><TD>50</TD><TD>2321.2</TD><TD>4231</TD><TD>1.822764</TD></TR><TR><TD>60</TD><TD>1302</TD><TD>2315</TD><TD>1.778034</TD></TR><TR><TD>70</TD><TD>755.3</TD><TD>1710</TD><TD>2.264001</TD></TR><TR><TD>80</TD><TD>475.6</TD><TD>1050</TD><TD>2.207738</TD></TR><TR><TD>90</TD><TD>609.5</TD><TD>995</TD><TD>1.632486</TD></TR><TR><TD>100</TD><TD>97.6</TD><TD>170</TD><TD>1.741803</TD></TR><TR><TD>110</TD><TD>224.7</TD><TD>730</TD><TD>3.248776</TD></TR><TR><TD>130</TD><TD>130</TD><TD>810</TD><TD>6.230769</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

If you wanted to bet :

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD><5</TD><TD>11733.6</TD><TD>13564.98</TD><TD>1.15608</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>25049.9</TD><TD>28721.76</TD><TD>1.146582</TD></TR><TR><TD>20</TD><TD>10234.2</TD><TD>11692.01</TD><TD>1.142445</TD></TR><TR><TD>30</TD><TD>5921.6</TD><TD>6904.56</TD><TD>1.165996</TD></TR><TR><TD>40</TD><TD>3293.9</TD><TD>3745</TD><TD>1.13695</TD></TR><TR><TD>50</TD><TD>2321.2</TD><TD>2556.2</TD><TD>1.101241</TD></TR><TR><TD>60</TD><TD>1302</TD><TD>1223</TD><TD>0.939324</TD></TR><TR><TD>70</TD><TD>755.3</TD><TD>651.52</TD><TD>0.862598</TD></TR><TR><TD>80</TD><TD>475.6</TD><TD>655</TD><TD>1.377208</TD></TR><TR><TD>90</TD><TD>609.5</TD><TD>720</TD><TD>1.181296</TD></TR><TR><TD>100</TD><TD>97.6</TD><TD>140</TD><TD>1.434426</TD></TR><TR><TD>110</TD><TD>224.7</TD><TD>470</TD><TD>2.091678</TD></TR><TR><TD>130</TD><TD>130</TD><TD>340</TD><TD>2.615385</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As you can see the differene can be huge depending on what price you get.
It should also be obvious that the higher the price the higher the % difference.

Also this is before 5% commission so after commission is taken into account the %'s will drop.

[Mark]

"Just got me thinking, if it was correct that you got 20% better long term, would I be correct in thinking that to be able to lay horses sucesfuly, you would need to be showing around a 30% LOT at TAB prices? I figure, markets run at 102% (give or take), plus you are offering 20% more than TAB, and then paying 5% comission as well which would with a 30% LOT at TAB, you should be showing a 3% POT laying?"

Lost me. Maybe I need some red as well.

Wes I believe your tables would be accurate and mean something, unfortunately I can't follow them.

For laying, if you lay at more than 100% you win, if less than 100% you can still win but take some risk. The trick is to lay the winner for less than your hold, and here's some advice wanted or not. ALWAYS put the fav in for something and 9 times out of 10 make it the worst result. Don't worry about comparing what the TABs or bookies are paying just concentrate on BF prices because ultimately (if laying) that is your only market. If you get it right, or that should be when you get it right, everything should show a profit. If forced to take a risk make it on the first 2 in the market (and/or the 3rd fav if it's short as well), the rest should always be winners.

This is what I was taught over 25 years ago by one of the bigger bookies of the day and it still works today.

Having said that, of course it's not the only way to win but is my preferred method.

[Bhagwan]

Very sound advice Mark & you will rarely see that written in any book.

Could you give us an example of what you are explaining..

I use a program called Fairbot.
With this, I can Lay the 4th & 5th Fav to make a profit & also have it Lay the fav so that we break even if it should win & profit if it should lose.

This approach lowers the Liability considerable & if one cherry picks the right races to do it on, good profits can be had on the day with minimal exposure to large Liabilities.

[Mark]

I'll try but not sure how well they will copy to here.



Horse Racing > Leop 29th Dec : 2m Nov Hrd Showing 1 - 5 of 5 Selections

Selection Odds Stake($) Bid type Placed Profit/loss($)
First Lieutenant 34.00 2.15 Lay 29-Dec-10 13:00 -70.95
Hazeymm 60.00 1.22 Lay 29-Dec-10 13:00 1.22
Hidden Cyclone 4.00 18.37 Lay 29-Dec-10 12:59 18.37
Perfect Smile 24.00 3.05 Lay 29-Dec-10 12:59 3.05
Zaidpour * 1.46 50.44 Lay 50.44
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 0.00
Lay subtotal: 2.13
Market subtotal: 2.13
Commission @ 5.16%: 0.11
Net Market Total: 2.02

[Mark]

Didn't work very well.

[Shaun]

what he is saying is if you layed the field to payout 100 in a 96% market you would lose $4 but if you set the fav to payout 120 as an example this would increase the overall hold and if that is above 100 then you win if any other runner except the fav wins, you would need to factor in coms as well, this can also be done on the back side but in reverse.

[Shaun]

Lets show example from a race the otherday.

We will lay all runners to payout $100

Total hold $99.73
This is results and the market was close to 100 you would normally only hold around $98 or less.

3.6 $27.78
5.7 $17.54
6.6 $15.15
10.5 $9.52
12.5 $8.00
13.5 $7.41
22 $4.55
22 $4.55
28 $3.57
60 $1.67

As you can see this would result in a loss but lets change the fave to pay out 110 our total hold on the race is $102.51 making a profit of $2.51 less coms

if the fav wins we lose $7.49 in the example below the fav lost.



3.6 $30.56
5.7 $17.54
6.6 $15.15
10.5 $9.52
12.5 $8.00
13.5 $7.41
22 $4.55
22 $4.55
28 $3.57
60 $1.67

This won't work on all race but it can work.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks Shaun,

You explained that very well.

[thorns]

Another quick question for Wesmip, those horse on BF which are $10 and under, what is the SR and return for these? I know for horses on the TAB the SR is around 80% and the return is around -14%, does BF have a better SR for those under $10, and what is teh return?

[wesmip1]

about 70%. 5764 out of 8148 races were winners under $10 on betfair.