System for 2011

[wesmip1]

THought I would pass on a profitable system for the few who have the temperment to bet it.

Rules are :
1. Barrier 5 or wider before scratchings (removes the overbet inside 4 barriers)
2. Unitab 100 rated
3. Has only had up to 4 previous career starts

Thats it.

Selections : 1229
Return betfair after 5% commission : $1368.45
Strike rate : 27%

Lots of action and a profit. If you restricted it to $3+ bets :

Selections : 913
Return betfair after 5% commission : $1061.33
Strike rate : 20%

Thats a profit of 16% on over 900 bets.

There are a couple of other ways to make this more profitable but thats for you to work out.

[luv2bet]

hi wesmip,
what timeframe was your testing over?
thanks

[wesmip1]

sorry meant to post that. I only have betfair prices from Mid June. So it was over 6.5 months.

[axledog]

maiden races included or must have a win next to name?

[wesmip1]

as per rules .. maidens are not excluded.

Just these rules:

1. Barrier 5 or wider before scratchings (removes the overbet inside 4 barriers)
2. Unitab 100 rated
3. Has only had up to 4 previous career starts


You will lose on tote figures. It requires you bet with betfair odds.

[Dale]

I imagine barriers 1 to 4 didnt show a profit which would suggest extending the barrier filter would perhaps reduce the action and strike rate a bit but improve the overall POT.

[wesmip1]

I imagine barriers 1 to 4 didnt show a profit which would suggest extending the barrier filter would perhaps reduce the action and strike rate a bit but improve the overall POT.
correct.

[Merriguy]

Looks interesting, Wes. Thanks for that. Just went thru today's races, and if I have done things right there are only 9 qualifiers. Thought there would be more than that --- though that is plenty!!

Couple of questions raised their heads:

If there are more than one 100 in a race?

Have you any figures for place betting?

Thanks.

[wesmip1]

Looks interesting, Wes. Thanks for that. Just went thru today's races, and if I have done things right there are only 9 qualifiers. Thought there would be more than that --- though that is plenty!!

Couple of questions raised their heads:

If there are more than one 100 in a race?

Have you any figures for place betting?

Thanks.
If more then one 100 rater in a race then you still include them. Its not often you will get 2 that meet the rules in one race.

I don't generally keep my place dividends up to date as I don't do place betting. But I would think place betting will show a loss. Place betting is very hard to profit from.

I get 7 selections today (after scratchings):

Echuca R3 : 12
Echuca R4 : 9
Mooney Valley R1 : 1
Mooney Valley R5 : 5
Sunshine Coast R4 : 13
Nowra R2: 8
Port Lincoln R4 : 11

You can double check your selections against those.

[Merriguy]

Thanks for that, Wes. Checked them all out. Had made mistakes with Gosford Race 3 No. 13; and Nowra 1 No. 3. Otherwise, as the Italians say Siamo d'Accordo.

Thanks for that it will be interesting to see how they go.

Is there a simple place to get the horse's last four runs? I have been using the Punters Paradise site which is pretty good; but does meana bit of to and fro work.

Good luck.

[wesmip1]

Its just career starts so any formguide should be able to give it.

I use my database but unitab (if you have an account) is the easiest as you are already there getting the 100 raters. Just click on the horse to get the form.

[Merriguy]

Again thanks. I was overlooking the obvious11

Yes most papers have career starts, and while I do have a Unitab account; I rarely use it (except for the easily accessed info available when you first go to the site).

Not so good today; but I guess that is to b expected.

[wesmip1]

Again thanks. I was overlooking the obvious11

Yes most papers have career starts, and while I do have a Unitab account; I rarely use it (except for the easily accessed info available when you first go to the site).

Not so good today; but I guess that is to b expected.Systems always have a knack of having a bad period once they are posted.

To save you time here are todays selections (not sure if all ratngs are up at unitab yet though):


<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>Eagle Farm</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>SECOND DRAW</TD></TR><TR><TD>Eagle Farm</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>ZED MAN</TD></TR><TR><TD>Eagle Farm</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>HOLLY MOLLY</TD></TR><TR><TD>Eagle Farm</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>TYSON RULES</TD></TR><TR><TD>Gold Coast</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>FIVE O'CLOCK</TD></TR><TR><TD>Gold Coast</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>READY TO RIP</TD></TR><TR><TD>Inverell</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>I'LL TAKEMANHATTAN</TD></TR><TR><TD>Inverell</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>THE BIG RED VEE</TD></TR><TR><TD>Inverell</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>ANOTHER GLOW</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kembla Grange</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>14</TD><TD>VRYSTAAT</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kembla Grange</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>RASPBERRIES</TD></TR><TR><TD>Randwick</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>SNIPPETS OF GLORY</TD></TR><TR><TD>Allan Scott Park Morphettville</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>LANGRIDGE STREET</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ascot</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>DUAL CITY</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Merriguy]

Appreciated.