TAB Starting Prices

[foxwood]

Good afternoon all,
I trust somebody out there has had a profitable year unlike yours truly. Congratulations to you if you did.
Ever the optimist, I persevere. At present I have a longshot system which I am testing and it looks quite profitable using S-Tab divies as shown in their results section going back twelve months. The problem is that the final divies are very often not even close to what is showing live on the website even 10 seconds before the jump. I asked them about the discrepancy and was told that they are unable to show realtime divies because they have a lead time in case a big punter wants to cancel a bet!!
My system requires a minimum price of $25.00 and yesterday in R2 @ Coffs the winner which eventually paid $30.60 was showing only about $21 just a very short time before the close of betting. Does anybody have the same problem and if so have you found a solution?
May 2011 be a good one for all.
Ron

[Shaun]

You could use the fixed prices from the TAB open a Bookie account for fixed prices or open a Betfair account.

If you are looking at the longer priced runners Betfair could be your best option, they do charge 5% commission on your profits for each race but the bigger prices might be worth it.

Take a look at the results page.

http://racingform.betfair.com.au/

[wesmip1]

As per the recommendation from Shaun...

Use betfair esepcially for longshots. You will get a lot of value on them from people who lay way above the real chance of the horse.

And considering it is fixed odds you won't have the same problem as the tote.

[foxwood]

Thanks for your replies Shaun and Wesmip1 but I obviously haven't clearly explained my dilemma.
I created my system based on horses which in the past paid =>$25 on S-Tab. The fact that I could get $100 on Betfair is irrelevant if today it is only showing say $15 on S-Tab because then it is not a selection. I'm afraid I get dizzy just thinking about the huge number of bets involved if I were to extend the criteria to a horse starting at =>$25 on any TAB or bookie or exchange, not to mention having to go back and retest on all those markets.
I have noticed that the longer priced horses on S-Tab do tend to drift after betting closes but I don't have any stats as yet to confirm this or any sense of the percentages, just gut feeling. If that turns out to be the case after further monitoring maybe I can include those at say, $20 or maybe $22 and hope that I catch those that drift and not too many that shorten.
Cheers
Ron

[wesmip1]

Based on that you really have no way around your problem. Tote prices fluctuate and you never know what they will be till its too late.

If you are going to base any method on price you should use betfair as you can get the fixed price.

[Bhagwan]

Why not use S-TAB to make the selection then bet on Betfair.

It will be rare where the TAB pays more than Betfair in the price range that you are targeting.

Use Betchoice or Racingandsports to monitor both markets at the same time.

[moeee]

A Race is a Race and the results are influenced by varying Factors.
The Starting Price of an animal a minute before or a minute after the junp is NOT one of those Factors.

If it seems to be important to you , you best try to understand exactly why it should be.
Why $25?
Why not $35? - or $45 - or $15???

I think you are being swayed by your Coffs Harbour incident.
We always see the winners that got away and tend to close our eyes on the numerous times we saved money because an animal didn't quite make our criteria.

[foxwood]

Thanks Bhagwan and Moeee,
In fact I do currently monitor prices on Sportingbet and pick the best available (if Maxidiv is not operating) providing the horse is a selection by being =>$25 on S-Tab.
I realise that the tote S/P is not a form factor and I do not study the form as such. I am not even trying to win a particular race. This is basically a mechanical numerical selection system with a few elimination criteria and over the past 12 months the most profit is from backing horses that started @ => $25.
Thanks for your input everybody and good luck today.
Ron

[Dale]

I have noticed that the longer priced horses on S-Tab do tend to drift after betting closes but I don't have any stats as yet to confirm this or any sense of the percentages, just gut feeling. If that turns out to be the case after further monitoring maybe I can include those at say, $20 or maybe $22 and hope that I catch those that drift and not too many that shorten.
Cheers
Ron

You answered your own question Foxwood,


All you need to do is work out what price to accept($20 or $22) say five minutes out from the race then head to betfair if it meets the price,the rest is swings and round abouts and will sort itself out.