Maidens, Lowest Number of Starts

[jackact]

Here is an idea I have been working on recently, which appears to show POT. The idea is that Maidens are often won by horses with the fewest convictions. I'll post the selections for a few days, and see how it continues (overcome the forum curse?).

Rules:

-all maiden races are candidates, but delete 2 YO and 3YO maidens, and maidens where there is more than one first starter.

-list starters (after scratchings) by number of previous runs.

-there are up to three selections (bets) a race: they are the (up to) three with the lowest number of previous starts. Where there are ties (same number of previous starts), choose from the lowest up, but stop when ties mean there are more than three selections.

Examples.

In Race 1, no 1 is a first starter, nos 4 and 7 have had only one prior start each, no 6 has had 2 prior starts. Selections are 1, 4, 7. (6 misses out as we already have our three selections.

In Race 2, no 3 has had one prior start, 5 has had two prior starts, nos 2, 7, 8, 9 have all had three prior starts. There are too many in the 'three prior starts' category, so the only selections are 3 ,5.

-In 1400m-1650m races, only bet if the horse with the lowest number of prior starts has had at least 2 runs.

-In 1660m up, only bet if the horse with the lowest number of prior starts has had at least 3 starts.




Sounds a bit complicated, I know, but here are today's selections (I'll be backing them all for a win, and hoping for a longer priced winner to give a profit):

Muswellbrook Race 6 nos 2,11,14

Moruya Race 1 nos 2,4,13

[peakester]

hit the bonanza at Moruya Race1

Thunderali $11.20 and $3.40 (Unitab)

Congrats

[jackact]

Thanks, peakester - let's hope it keeps going like this!
Probably some filtering of selections is warranted. For example, if I look back over past results, I don't see I would have missed any winners if I had eliminated initial selections which were more than $17 in AAP pre post markets.
Cheers, Jackact

[jackact]

Todays bets:
Taree Race 3 nos 1,8,12

[jackact]

Unfortunately no luck with Taree yesterday, although that was probably not too much of a surprise, as two of the selections were over $21.00 in pre post markets. I think some filtering should be considered – for today's selections I've shown in brackets where the pre post price is $21.00 or more.

I see the winner of the 1000m Maiden at Taree, Race 2, had only one prior start, and paid $55.30 (Sportsbet Country Best Price). My rules said there were too many with only one prior in that race – perhaps the rules need massaging. In Race 3 the winner had only two prior starts, and paid $65.20, although there were quite a number with 1 or 2 priors.

Today's selections:

Randwick Race 1, no 13

Doomben Race 3, nos 1,3,6($26)

Devonport Race 3 no 6

Narrogin

Race 1, nos 4,5($21),10($21)

Race 3 nos 6,11,12($26)

Here's hoping!

[jackact]

No luck again today. As a consequence, I won't be posting any more selections. However, I think that a low number of starts is a factor that is worth considering in analysing Maidens, especially those from about 1000m to 1300m. I trust this idea was of some interest to forum followers.

[Dale]

Thanks Jackat,been an intersting read.

Must be a system based around horses with 0 to 3 starts in maiden races surely.

[Raven]

Yep, an interesting idea. i might run a test on horses with 0 starts, 1 start, 2 starts etc to compare. Other factors might be of interest, like days since last run, apprentices v senior riders, etc.