Odds on, Look On - Wait a minute

[wesmip1]

We are always told odds on look on (as in don't take the bet) but is this the right advice.

Lets look at betfair odds that I have collected.

There have been 729 returning before any commission $759.44 in the price range of $1.01 - $2.00 inclusive. There were 427 winners.

After 5% commission this returned $742.82 wwhich is a profit.

Conversely if you backed everything in the $2.01 - $3.00 range you had 2382 selections for a return before commission of 2368.65. his will be a larger loss after commission.

I like the $2 and under range for the following reasons.

1. Any good filter can show a profit betting. (or no filter at all)
2. Any good filter can show a profit laying

Obviously this can only be done using betfair prices and the prices obtained make a difference.

If you don't look at horses on betfair under $2 then you are missing a great opportunity.

My prefered method is to lay them using a few filters I have tested that work. If you are going to look at this price range I would suggest laying the horses as there is always the chance that something can wrong for the odds on favourite and if it wins it costs less then backing it. For example a $1.50 chance that is layed and wins only costs me 50c whereas a $1.50 chance that is bet and loses costs me $1. Look at the risk vs reward.

[partypooper]

Good stuff Wes, in fact it has been known for many years that the lessor the odds range the LOWER the loss, and as you say its close to break even at odds on. The only thing that my data differs from yours is that according to my data BoB, Best tote/SP, best Tote, Country best as available in that order BEATS Bet Fair, especially for the place. But at that odds range I suspect that Top Fluc would easily beat Bet fair. Not an argument just a different observation.

[wesmip1]

the better the odds the better the return. People should aim to get the best odds available and if Top Fluc is the best then that is what they should go for.

But with laying you are restricted to betfair.

[partypooper]

Sorry Wes, got the wrong end of the stick again.......... my excuse, well onto my 2nd bottle of Merlot by then hee hee!

[wesmip1]

Partypooper,

I was talking about betting the selections as well so your info was appreciated.

Just as an example of how this can work for someone. I have been betting using betfair prices on filtered selections under $2 and have had the following:

38 selections for 33 winners. I have taken a bank of $500 up to $1422.12 as of my last bet about an hour ago (that is after commission).

Thats a profit of $922.12 in 9 days with moderate risk.

I hope others at least take a look at this area as its a goldmine for making a profit.

[Mark]

Wes, what constitutes an odds on fav?

Is it SP, which no one knows until after the fact, is it best fluc under $2?

The reason I ask is that many odds on favs at SP you will be able to get black odds for on Betfair.

Today Coffs R3, fav was 2 into 1.90 IAS, would have been well in the black on BF.....a bet I take it?
Kyneton R3, 2.40 1.90 2 1.95..........at what point are you sure that it will start odds on?

I guess it could be swings and roundabouts, some you decide to miss will win and some will get beaten.

A very subjective system, but hey can't knock it if it's winning.
I prefer to lay. Odds on bet up.......to lose.

[moeee]

38 selections for 33 winners. I have taken a bank of $500 up to $1422.12 as of my last bet about an hour ago (that is after commission).



I don't quite understand this.

Are you saying you backed 38 Selections , who all started less than Even Money , and 33 of them won?
You picked 33 out of 38 Winners?
87% Strike Rate?

If so , then you simply are amazing :)
Congratulations!!

[wesmip1]

moeee,

Yes 33 from 38 win. its not that good when the long term strike rate for these selections is 76%. Its only a couple more winners then I would have expected.

They are odds on selections. Most are going to win. You just need to find the right filters.

[wesmip1]

Wes, what constitutes an odds on fav?

Is it SP, which no one knows until after the fact, is it best fluc under $2?

The reason I ask is that many odds on favs at SP you will be able to get black odds for on Betfair.

Today Coffs R3, fav was 2 into 1.90 IAS, would have been well in the black on BF.....a bet I take it?
Kyneton R3, 2.40 1.90 2 1.95..........at what point are you sure that it will start odds on?

I guess it could be swings and roundabouts, some you decide to miss will win and some will get beaten.

A very subjective system, but hey can't knock it if it's winning.
I prefer to lay. Odds on bet up.......to lose.

Aggred it can be subjective. I have used in this case betfair odds recorded just before the jump as per my database.

[The Ocho]

Partypooper,

I was talking about betting the selections as well so your info was appreciated.

Just as an example of how this can work for someone. I have been betting using betfair prices on filtered selections under $2 and have had the following:

38 selections for 33 winners. I have taken a bank of $500 up to $1422.12 as of my last bet about an hour ago (that is after commission).

Thats a profit of $922.12 in 9 days with moderate risk.

I hope others at least take a look at this area as its a goldmine for making a profit.

That's fantastic wesmip1, well done, but how did you make such a profit on odds on favs? Are you betting them at around $100 a pop? Is the 76% strike rate really achievable long term?

I hope others at least take a look at this area as its a goldmine for making a profit.

You really gotta give us some hints and I'll gladly join you in your goldmine. :)