Second up from a spell

[Merriguy]

It is accepted by many that a horse second up from a spell is a risk. Does anyone know the thinking behind this --- or is it an 'urban myth'?

[Mark]

Unless someone can come up with concrete figures I'd go for myth.
However I do watch for horses to improve 3rd up that have run well first up then gone backwards 2nd up.

[Chrome Prince]

I busted this myth some time ago, but here's some figures to prove it's hysteria.
When looking at these type of myths or proving anything racing related, I like to look at favourites, as patterns can easily be seen without form factors creeping in.
<PRE>
All Favourites: 31.52% S/R
First Starters: 35.97% S/R
First Uppers: 32.75% S/R
Second Run: 32.62% S/R
Third Run: 32.12% S/R
Fourth Run: 31.26% S/R
Fifth Run: 31.31% S/R
Greater than five runs: 29.42% S/R
</PRE>
Basically second up, the strike rate is better than all favourites.
The difference between first, second and third up is less than 1% using a sample size of over 150,000 favourites.

[Merriguy]

Thanks for the replies, Mark and Chrome. Appreciated.

Chrome, while your figures are instructive (to say the least), does what happens to favourites tell the complete story? While there is usually only the one favourite, there can be several non-favs second up in any given race.

Just wondering about the logic here. I have been working on a little system which has done very well on the country and provincial tracks; but has done miserably on the metrop. tracks. I understand all about small samples, etc., etc.; but am wondering if the results for favourites are 'skewed' on the metrop tracks. The available prizemoney, for example, must have an influence one would think, and the quality of the starters too.

Again, my thanks.

[Chrome Prince]

The figures above are for both Metro and Country.

I've found that doing the figures on favourites is more reliable and not prone to other factors, the longer the price, the less reliable the stats are.

But to satisfy curiosity, let's take all prices, not just favourites:
<pre>
All Runners: 9.50% S/R
First Starters: 7.34% S/R
First Uppers: 8.62% S/R
Second Run: 8.78% S/R
Third Run: 9.93% S/R
Fourth Run: 10.41% S/R
Fifth Run: 10.73% S/R
Greater than five runs: 9.90% S/R
</pre>

But I stress, the favourite figures are much more reliable, taking all horses includes way too many hazard factors.

I've also busted a couple of other myths along the way:
"odds on, look on"
and
"Don't bet on heavy tracks"

I have a feeling that many of these myths were never based on facts and figures, but rather emotion. When it goes wrong, punters will look for a reason and it gets etched into the memory as fact, but it may be a biased reason that is based on the memory's sample size.

[Mark]

Look for improvement from these runners.

BR4 8 Shooting Scene
SR1 1 Ironstein
SR2 5 Somepin Anypin
SR2 7 Thegreatandthegood
SR6 4 Dedozen Stars
MR2 7 Rain Shadow
MR4 9 The Wingman

[jackact]

Very helpful info on both favs and all starters, Chrome. Thanks!!

[Mark]

Scr The Wingman
Ironstein too short for mine.

[Stix]

I've also busted a couple of other myths along the way:
"odds on, look on"
and
"Don't bet on heavy tracks"

I have a feeling that many of these myths were never based on facts and figures, but rather emotion. When it goes wrong, punters will look for a reason and it gets etched into the memory as fact, but it may be a biased reason that is based on the memory's sample size.Agree Chrome....apprentices and not placed last start also give a valuable edge ;)

[Mark]

BR4 8 Shooting Scene ... placed
SR1 1 Ironstein ... dropped as price too short
SR2 5 Somepin Anypin ... wins easy
SR2 7 Thegreatandthegood ... unplaced
SR6 4 Dedozen Stars ... placed at big odds
MR2 7 Rain Shadow ... unplaced as fav
MR4 9 The Wingman ... scr

And if your wondering about The Jackal, I only left him out because the track was heavy, but as we all know it kept drying out all day.