Anyone with a Unitab data base?

[michaelg]

I have been on and off looking at a certain Unitab Lay system. Yesterday would have been a good day (two accidents, each at odds-on) and today it would currently be in profit as there have been no accidents.

The rules are, for anyone with a Unitab data base. I suppose the easiest way to check the results would be to back the selections and not layed?

1 ) Minimum of 11 starters.
2 ) Outright top points in Unitab rankings.
3 ) Bottom half of the field in TAB saddle cloth numbers.

The remaining selections in today's races are:

Tamworth
6/7

Ballarat
8/7

Mt Gambier
6/8

Geraldton
1/10
8/9

Cranbourne
7/9

Hobart
8/10

Thanks in advance.

[michaelg]

Out of interest there was one accident from the seven selections mentioned in the original post.

If $30 had been layed on each selection assuming the S.P. price was obtained, then the profit would have been $19.80. However, laying them for the minimum of $30 on S.P. the profit (which I fortunately made) was $79.57.

I made a mistake with Saturday's results. One of the accidents was Rosehill R3 no.8. - Pane in the Glass. There were only 8 starters in the race which means it was not a genuine selection. So there was only one accident.

[michaelg]

I'll give the Lay system another go today.

Two selections:

Orange
3/14
5/8

If both selections turn out to be accidents, today's loss will be $60. However the method will still be in profit because it is currently up $79.57.

[michaelg]

Correction - the venue for today's two selections is Terang and not Orange.

I once more have my back problem. The pain can be verging on suicidal, and am currently on pain killers which makes me quite woozy, hence the mistake - at least that's my excuse.

[michaelg]

Both selections were beaten for a profit of $13.40.

[Merriguy]

Congrats --- hope that makes the back feel a bit better. Can be real b****s I know.

[michaelg]

Thanks for the concern, Merriguy.

Yes, the win is heartening but unfortunately the pain is now excruciating as the effects of the pain killers have worn off. It feels as if the right side of my back, my right nugget and my right leg are having the fiercest of competitions to see which can be the most painful. Thank God it's only temporary...

[jose]

Are you in SE Qld Michaelg???

[michaelg]

Jose, no, I'm in the Northern Beaches of Sydney.

[marksto2]

If someone could run the rules through a Unitab database I think it may look promising.


What about a staking method? Any suggestions or just the flat stake liability to $30 min on BF?

[marksto2]

Maybe a focus on Maiden races would be a suggestion where the rating is poor. The rules run through a database search would be helpful yes!

[michaelg]

Marksto2, if the method continues to be successful I will most likely increase the size of the bet. However, I don't know if there is too much logic to the method even though a plausible argument can be made to support it. But who knows...and so far so good.

Today's selections:

Taree
3/13

Geelong
4/12

Townsville
1/9
4/9

Fingers crossed.

[michaelg]

Correction - its Townsville R2 no.9, not R1 no.9.

I'm currently on pain killers, so I'll put it down to their effects.

[michaelg]

A very bad day today. 2 accidents for a loss of $52.61.

After three days it's in profit of $40.33.

[1annandale1]

Interesting result Townsville race2 ..Just shows the price variability on Betfair..The lay selection Fraction was 3.2 favorite on Betchoice . driftingto 3.6 SP 3.5 ..Unitab 5.00 fixed . Tote Paying 6.7 .On Betfair drifted from 5.4 ..( I layed it at 5.5).. Remarkably it drifted to 14.00 with BFSP 13.4 . I hedge a small amount at 13.00. to cover my bet.. The point i am making is any system requires a great degree of common sense.Like any position betting or laying if a position becomes available to lay or back a price way over or under the reasonable value then you have to take it.

[marksto2]

Can anyone offer any filters to increase the strike rate maybe? Larger fields or certain race types?

[michaelg]

1annandale1, good point, but not everyone would act upon it.

A few years ago one of my friends backed a football team (Benfica) at $50 to win the Champions League or one of the European comps. Benfica made it to the finals, and I told my friend that if he backed the other team for a certain amount he would obtain a good profit whatever the result of the game. His reply was "no, with me its all or nothing".

I suppose its up to the individual.

As a matter of interest, due to a late scratching Townsville R2 only had 10 runners (the minimum for the system is 11), but having already placed the bet I was unable to cancel it.

[jose]

Michael, I was going to put you onto someone to put your back right.
Know exactly what you are going thru with it, as have had much the same.
I do however have 3 words that will help you................

STRETCH
STRETCH
STRETCH......

The more the better.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Jose.

It's a nerve in my back which I believe is the sciatic nerve. It has spread to my groin and leg.

I checked the net for sciatica and was recommended a particular stretching exercise. I tried it but I don't think its done any good.

If you could hear me you would swear someone was torturing me or that I was having one continual orgasm. When not on medication the pain is THAT bad.

[jose]

Mate, I feel your pain.
I was locked up and bent over like a half opened pocket knife for 6 months about 10 years ago.
After a scan it was revealed that I had ruptured 2 discs, somewhere around L3 and L4 from memory.
The specialist I went to wanted to operate on me the next week. I told him that this was a big decision and I would have to talk it over with the family, and he got quite shirty. (still maintain he just wanted a new set of golf clubs)
Finished up going to a back rehab course at the Wesley Hospital for 2 weeks.

There was about a dozen in the 2 week course, 3 of these people had had back operations.
One bloke was a bit better after the op.
One woman was about the same as before the op.
And one poor soul was just about wrecked, she was a lot worse off after the op.
The scarring in and around the back is sometimes worse than the original complaint.
Glad now I didn't let him open me up.
Having said all that, they have come a long way with back ops in the last 10 years or so, but my advice FWIW is if they offer you an op put it off as long as you can.
I have been stretching every morning ever since and as long as I don't overdo things it is quite manageable.
Enough of me, I do hope you come good soon.
Stretch.....Stretch....Stretch.

[michaelg]

Hi Jose. You're comments are very much appreciated.

I had the current problem about six months ago, and fortunately it healed itself in about three weeks, so it was/is not as bad as yours. I've also heard that acupuncture can be quite beneficial.

From today I will begin a stretching program.

Thanks again.

[Bhagwan]

A couple of my friends with back probs found walking on one of those motorised

tread mills that are programmed to go incline & decline, at various speeds,

worked wonders for their pinched back nerves.

They hired them for $10.00 a week to see if that is what they needed, before buying them

[marksto2]

Hi Michael,


Do you have today's selections out of interest? I hope you are feeling better. I had that pain before after injuring myself through exercise and boy was it real pain so I can feel your pain mate.

Cheers,
Mark

[michaelg]

Thanks Bhagwan.

I work-out at a gym. That's where I think I caused my problem because I mainly use heavy weights.

There are tread mills but can only be adjusted to an incline angle.

When I return I will do stretch and incline tread mill exercises.

[michaelg]

Thanks Marksto2.

It worries me to lay any horse that is the top Unitab selection without applying any logical filters.

However over the three days of laying the system, there have been 13 selections for 10 smiles for a profit of $40.33, so who knows. It will now probably crash.

Today's selections are:

Eagle Farm
2/13
5/10

Warwick Farm
3/15

Wyong
5/17
7/13 - this is a selection in my Place system.

Murray Bridge
2/7
9/16



The scratchings for Narrogin and Bunbury haven't yet been loaded. Assuming there are a minimum of 11 runners; the selections haven't been scratched and that they remain in the bottom half of the final acceptances, then the selections will be:

Narrogin
7/8

Bunbury
1/14
2/11
3/15
5/14
6/11
8/10

[marksto2]

Hi Michael,

Many thanks, I am just trying to think if there are certain races where the ratings are not reliable where the top rater would consistently lose ie maybe Maiden races only or early 2 yr olds.

It would be great if someone could run it through a database to verify this wouldn't it.

[michaelg]

I'm ending the system because of today's two accidents, I didn't keep any records but I'm almost certain it would have lost.


I've been looking at another "illogical" lay system:

1) Identify the top neural selection based on the default/factory settings.
2) Minimum of 10 runners.
3) Lay the top selection providing it has less than 200 neural points.

I have always found the neurals can be quite puzzling, so I decided to see what would happen if the top selection was layed. I've restricted the top selection not to exceed 199.5 points. There was one selection today at exactly 199.5 points - it was beaten.

I haven't been keeping accurate records because if the selection is/was under $7 I would lay it for one unit of $5, because the liability would be lower than S.P. And, conversely if it's price was over $7, I would lay it with S.P. so that its liability was only $30.

Sunday there were 28 selections for 27 smiles, 19 of them were single-figures with Unitab divvies. It was a massive day.

Monday was break-even, mainly due to the low prices, which I layed non-S.P.

Tuesday there were 9 smiles from 10 selections for a profit of about $20.

Today I only layed S.P. because my back seems to be clearing up (please Forum Curse, please leave it alone) so I decided to lie down (fortunately there was not too much pain) and watch the cricket. There were 24 smiles from 26 selections for a profit of $54.15.

It's an illogical system, but then people may easily have the impression that the neurals are illogical, and therefore the system might just turn out to be logical.

[The Ocho]

That looks like it might be a good system michaelg.

I had a quick look at todays picks and the 2 accidents were quite low in price which is great.

I wonder if wesmip1 might have some stats for this.

[michaelg]

The Ocho, today will test the method. There are 12 selections, 7 of them are the pre-post fave.

Ballarat
4/9
7/10

Scone
5/7
6/4
7/8

Launceston
2/6
6/6
7/2
9/2

Albany
3/11
7/7
8/1

I'll be laying them S.P., but I think laying them for the same amount may be the way to go because of their expected low prices.

[The Ocho]

Only 1 accident today as far as can tell and that paid all of $1.40 on Unitab :)

Well done.

[michaelg]

Yes, only one accident - it paid $1.50 on Betfair S.P. The profit for the day was $17.12.

If the selections were laid at S.P. prices for a flat stake of $30 then the profit would have been about $210. However the liability would have been much higher.

Over the two days of listing the selections here and laying then on S.P, there have been 32 smiles from 35 selections for a profit of $71.27.

Its amazing that the neural top selection (max of 199.5 neural points and minimum 10 runners) currently has such a poor strike rate even though there has only been a paltry 35 selections. My testing period also showed a poor strike rate, so there might be merit. I'm somewhat pessimistic, but time will tell.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Ballina
3/1
4/1
5/2
6/1
7/4

Goulburn
3/2
4/4
6/6

Ipswich
2/4
5/13

Mornington
4/9
8/5

Sun Coast
4/4
7/2

Canterbury
2/5
5/1
6/10
7/3

Moonee Valley
7/11

Again, there's quite a few pre-post faves today. It does make one wonder why there has been such a poor strike rate. Hopefully it will continue.

[michaelg]

I made an error - I'm still on pain killers so I'll again put it down to them.

I incorrectly stated Ballina 3/1 was the selection - it was not, the real selection was no.8 (can be checked on the neural website), which was unplaced. Because I listed no.1 as the selection I'll have to record it as an accident. In spite of that, the method is currently $18.93 in profit.

If I had not made the mistake, the method would be a further $30 (the non-accident) and $5.59 in front giving an overall profit of $54.52.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 19 selections there were 4 accidents for a loss of $21.27.

After three days the profit is exactly $50.

However, if I hadn't listed the wrong selection in Ballina R3, yesterday's result would have been a profit of $14.83. And after the three days the profit would have been $85.51, which is the true result of the system.

[michaelg]

The method has shown a genuine profit for the three days. Hopefully it'll continue even though the selection process is illogical for laying.

Randwick
8/3

Sandown
2/1

Dombeen
1/5
2/1
3/4
6/1

Morphetville
2/1
6/5

Seymour
4/6
6/4
8/14

Kembla
6/1

Coonamble
3/3
4/9
7/2

Armidale
2/6
6/5

Gold Coast
4/1
6/12
8/4

Toowoomba
5/1

Ascot
6/1
7/5

[The Ocho]

Hi michaelg

Gee, I wish you had have listed these 30 minutes earlier. It would have saved me looking them up myself...lol :mad: :)

I'm laying these with my bot but, as I try and do something else with the bot. I'm only going to lay these for $3 liability (so 1/10th of your $30 liability).

Have you tried doing these on a Saturday before?

Good luck today by the way.

[michaelg]

Pity I can't lay them for a liability of $3. But at the moment that might be good because my profit would have been only 1/10 of what it currently is.

I wait for the scratchings at W.A. to be loaded before listing all the selections here. However if the system continues to be successful I'll show the selections before the W.A. scratchings are recorded.

No, I've not layed the method on Saturday, but my experience shows that the top neural selections generally perform worse on Saturdays, so I'm hopeful. After saying that, today might just kill the method.

Good luck.

[The Ocho]

What a c&*t of a day so far.

The system I'm trying just blew up in my face and this laying the neural system has already had at least 4 accidents. I got so ********ed off I've just shut down my bot and haven't even put it in simulation mode (which is very much unlike me). FFS!!!

I don't have much money left but it's back to the drawing board.

[michaelg]

Yes, it was a terrible start. However it has picked up and it is currently a few dollars in front with six more races to go.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day today. There were 19 smiles from the 23 selections for a profit of $37.06.

[wesmip1]

What a c&*t of a day so far.

The system I'm trying just blew up in my face and this laying the neural system has already had at least 4 accidents. I got so ********ed off I've just shut down my bot and haven't even put it in simulation mode (which is very much unlike me). FFS!!!

I don't have much money left but it's back to the drawing board.
Without wanting to offend this is what 95% of punters do and is why they lose. You let the fear take hold. The problem here might be that you didn't plan properly. Assume you have $1000 in your account on betfair. How much are you willing to lose ? Whats your expected drawdown, Whats the expected losing streak ? How will your bank handle this ? What is a safe size to be betting ? etc, etc, etc.

For a $1000 account (from what I have seen posted here already) I would not lay to lose more then $2 a lay (as there is not enough history posted to compute the drawdown and expected losing streak). On a $100 account the liability would not want to be more then 20c.

If your going to bet a system you need to stick with it for a while and need to have the bank to handle these losses.

Most punters can not handle laying as it goes against their usual mindset. Big losses with small wins as opposed to Big wins and small losses.


Again not intending to offend, just trying to point out what I see. I was like this too ... This biggest advice I can give is commit to a method till you lose the amount you set to it. Setup a bank of $100 and lay $0.50 liabilities. Stick with whatever method you are using till you lose $50. It will take a while. While that is happening just keep looking for other methods to try. At worst you lose $50. If it works then you can start to up the stakes. Only test 1-2 methods at a time.

I wished someone told me this advice years go and I had listened.

[The Ocho]

Hi wesmip1. No offence taken. I know I can be impatient and undisciplined when it comes to my betting. I think this stems from wanting INSTANT returns on my money. You know 100-200-1000% on my bets NOW...lol. Although it is no laughing matter.

It also seems that whenever I trial a system for a while with very small stakes or in simulation mode with my bot everything goes great but then when it comes time to bet it in real life it's like I'm cursed and I give the system the kiss of death or something. Every time.

I will try to heed your advice which anyone who is in a similar predicament like me should also heed.

Thanks.

[michaelg]

I've noticed that if I had omitted nos. 1 to 4 from the system, the results would have been much different - I've got too much time on my hands because of my back.

From the four days of listing the selections here there's been 11 accidents from the 77 selections. Surprisingly 10 of the accidents have been from TAB nos. 1 to 4. Even though the method is $90.08 in profit, if I had omitted nos. 1 to 4 then the profit would be approx a further $115 which is about $200 in front. However, it might just be one of those strange and temporary occurrences, and could mean nothing in the long run.

The Ocho, I wonder if its worth looking at nos. 1 to 4 in your system.

However, from today I am omitting these numbers from my betting (hope this isn't a mistake) even though I'll list all the selections below.

Cranbourne
1/10
2/7
3/10
4/1
7/2
8/6

Devenport
3/2
5/9
9/9

Grafton
3/4
6/4
7/2

Parkes
3/7
5/1
7/1

Port Lincoln
6/8
7/5
8/7

Sun Coast
1/8
3/1
6/4

Wodonga
2/3
4/7
8/1

When the scratchings for Pinjarra are known I'll list the selections.

[The Ocho]

Hi michaelg. Regarding TAB nos 1-4, do your figures also include the winning lays you had with those numbers?

[michaelg]

Yes, the figures include the winning lays.

The daily results when deducting winning from losing lays for nos. 1 to 4 are:

Wed - $17 better off.
Thurs - $19 better off.
Fri - $31 better off.
Sat - $51 better off.

[michaelg]

Today's Pinjarra selections are:

7/2
8/12
9/12

[Dale]

It also seems that whenever I trial a system for a while with very small stakes or in simulation mode with my bot everything goes great but then when it comes time to bet it in real life it's like I'm cursed and I give the system the kiss of death or something. Every time.

.

Been here so many times Ocho,its not hard to take it personaly.you do feel cursed.


Looking back with hindsight though i can see that my expectations and expected low bank were just not realistic.

Getting the timing right for when you start to bet seriously is very important too,ive lost many banks simply because filters were applied too early,i had noticed a pattern and as we do naturaly assume it will stay that way,trouble is its often a very temporary pattern and once things correct themselves there goes your bank (im hoping Michaelg hasnt made the same mistake with numbers 1 to 4).

Good luck with it.

[Dale]

Trialing a ratings method at the moment and made one of those mistakes yesterday.

I had been playing around with betting the top two in quinellas at the start of the week,gave up on it after a couple of quiet days and had it pegged as something to apply to races with 10 starters or more,then,you guessed it along comes the big result.

Ascot 4 my 2nd top rater wins at $18.90,my top rater comes in 2nd and the quinella pays $195.40 ffs

Ended up with the tri as the 3rd top rater chimed in for third -$3009 for a $6 outlay.

9 starters,i had gone off too early again.

[michaelg]

Dale, your ratings method sounds promising. I presume you are keeping accurate records and intend to persevere with it.

Today was not a bad day for the Lay system.

Nos 1 to 4.
There were 2 accidents from 11 selections for a profit of $32.53. Unfortunately I did not lay them. I'm recording the results separately to see how they fare.

No. 5 and higher.
There was one accident from 13 selections for a profit of $55.71.

Tomorrow I'm leaving the system alone because Betfair will be down.

[lomaca]

to apply to races with 10 starters or moreHi Dale,

If I may ask, what's your rationale behind the number of runners in a race for the Quinella, or at all, for that matter?

I can sort of understand not betting for the place when there are less than 8 runners, although the usually higher place divies, more than compensate for the lack of a third dividend, but for the other kinds of wager..?

When we talk about 18 to 24 horses in a race it seems on the face of it, that the chances of finding a winner is harder.

But it's only true if you look at the race purely mathematically, the class horses are still winning their true share of the races, and the interference that sometimes caused by the high number of runners, is again compensated for by the higher prices.

Liked to know why you think 10 is better than 11 or 9?

Cheers

[The Ocho]

Thanks for that Dale. I will try and take wesmip1's advice and set a betting bank for a method I'm trying and keep sticking at it.

michaelg, It was a good day for the system. I layed nos 5+ manually only using $2 liability and won a little. The only loser was one I had also backed using my other system so I halved my bet on that one and only lost half the amount...lol. :)

[michaelg]

I decided to comprehensively analyze the two sections of the system - those that are numbers 1 to 4, and those that are number 5 and higher.

Numbers 1 to 4.
There have been 12 accidents from 47 selections for a loss of $47.16.

Numbers 5 and over.
There have been 2 accidents from 53 selections for a profit of $260.62. From the five days of listing the selections here there has not yet been a losing day.

As previously stated, this might just be one of those anomalies and may right itself sooner or later.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Nos 1 to 4

Canberra
6/4
7/2

Port mac
1/2

W'bool
5/3
8/2


Nos 5 and higher

Port Mac
3/6
5/9
6/5

Mackay
3/5
5/6
6/5

Canberra
5/8

W'bool
3/6
6/5

[michaelg]

Correction - Mackay R5 is a no-bet race because there is a scratching reducing the field to 9 runners. Canberra R5 is also a no-bet race for the same reason.

[Merriguy]

Thanks again, Michael --- and Good Luck today. As I calculated things the three possibles for yesterday (if there had been a Betfair available) all saluted for your system too.

Couple of questions: the late scratches? Do you tend to just dismiss them? If you don't it negates the ease of working things out early and then "forgetting" about the choices; and

have you any idea of the average return? Realise it depends on the outlay but
let's say using the $30.00 liability you have given as an example?

Regarding the last mentioned, there is a very successful laying site in England where the POT is just over 5% based on BSP. I know it is early days; but does that seem to you realistic? (Actually, according to my calcs you are doing better than that --- 6-7%???

[michaelg]

Hi, Merriguy.

Thanks for yesterday's results, I hadn't checked them.

I ignore late scratchings if they are not shown on the TAB when I identify the selections, which is generally between 11 a. m. and 12. I then lay them on S.P. and hope for the best.

I don't know what the average profit per race is, but probably most of them have a S.P. price in single figures. My nett biggest profit was $33.72 on Sat when the selection was odds-on and got beaten.

I don't see why a 5% POT would be unrealistic, particularly if the selection method is sound.

My number 5 and higher method is currently showing a 16% POT.

[michaelg]

Not a bad day today.

Nos.1 to 4.

There were 2 accidents for a loss of $40.31. Fortunately I didn't lay them, and from tomorrow I'll no longer look at them. I don't think they would show a profit if bet from the start, instead of laying because the accidents have been at small prices.

Nos.5 and higher.

Today there were 7 selections for 7 smiles for a profit of $43.15.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Eagle Farm
7/6

Sandown
3/7

Strathalbyn
1/8
4/5

Warwick Farm
6/7
7/10

When Ascot is available I'll list the selections.

[michaelg]

Only one selection at Ascot today:

8/5

[Merriguy]

Thanks again Michael --- though I think Warwick Farm should be Race 6 No. 5.

Was doing these last night and could not help thinking that there must be some other candidates to be found. There are only 7 (if the one from Ascot qualifies) out of about 250 starters this afternoon!

I realise that this can be a good thing, and that many sites might only give one or two selections a day; but.....

Perhaps we have to extend our boundaries a little (somehow). THe one thing I often think about is the remarks of Maria --- yes, that Maria, --- indicationg that her father and some other of his friends (apparently knowledgable punters) maintained that she was not realising her full potential as a layer because she did not go out beyond $11.00.

[michaelg]

Hi, Merriguy. Warwick R6 no. 5 is a scratching. No.7 is the next highest and is under 200 points, so it becomes the selection.

About extending our boundaries:- how about we relax the 199.50 points rule and have no limit on the total points (for test purposes only), but only with TAB numbers 5 and higher?

Today, these selections would be:

Ascot
5/8 (223 points)

Eagle Farm
1/9 (231)
3/11 (304 - this is a very high total)

Strathalbyn
9/7 (216)

We'll see how they go.

I won't check previous results because they can become quite skewered after the races.

[Merriguy]

Thanks for the explanation about the scratching. Missed that.

Will be interesting to see how that new twist pans out (that's a mixed metaphor for you!). The Strathalbyn selection was a good start to the day.

[michaelg]

Yes, Merriguy, the first selection was a good start to the day.

Now E. Farm 3/11 is also an accident. Its S.P. price was $1.66 which gives a profit of $43.18, this includes Betfair's 5% commission - not bad!!!

Hopefully the success will continue, even though there's still no logical reason.

[michaelg]

Correction - should read: "now E. Farm 3/11 is also a non-accident" (or smile). That's a huge difference to what I said. I'll again blame it on the pain killers for my bad back.

[michaelg]

Today there were 6 smiles from 7 selections for a profit of $9.68.

From the test method of 200 points-plus there were 2 smiles from 4 selections for a loss of $9.82.

[Merriguy]

Have to study things a bit more closely in spreading the boundaries it seems. Actually the system has thrown up quite a few close shaves. Still thats O.K.. However I must admit I get annoyed when one of the picks wins; but only pays 50 or 60 cents!! Seems a lot of risk/effort for nothing.

[michaelg]

I'm persevering with the 200-plus points. Its too early to tell if it's got merit or should be sent to the scrapheap. And I suppose its somewhat heartening that yesterday's loss was not too damaging in spite of a high 50% accident rate.

Yes, sometimes the profit on a race can be very small. Since Monday there have been 16 smiles but only two of them have produced a profit of under $1.00, whilst nine of them with a profit of over $5.00. Seeing that most of the selections are high in the market, some even start fave, that its not surprising there have been close shaves. But what I find surprising is that there have been only three accidents from 67 selections. Of course that could easily change from today especially as there is no real logic to it.

Fingers crossed.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Hawkesbury
8/5

Ballarat
6/5
8/5


200 Pointers

Hawkesbury
2/11
5/5

Ballarat
5/8


When the scratchings for Bunbury are known I'll list the selections.

[michaelg]

Bunbury selections:
8/8


200 Pointers
1/7 (456 points)
2/14
3/9

[Merriguy]

Still doing remarkably well, Michael --- great to see.

I have been trying to work out a way of getting a better return on outlay. Again today, while great wins small (relative) returns. I wonder if we can't modify Maria's staking plan and its "bands" to apply them to your successful idea.

With the BSP you have no idea what the return on any outlay may be --- though I feel we are averaging about $5.00 per bet, which means that any accident will cost about six wins to offset.

What if we took the pre-post in the Telegraph and used that as our band indicator? In other words using that to indicate our choices. We don't know how she chose her picks; but it does seem that your idea is giving a great percentage return and it would be a pity not to profit by it.

I realize that there are plenty of "What ifs" in what I have said, but....

[michaelg]

I'm not sure how to maximize the profit, if possible. I've for quite sometime now looked at the Telegraph pre-post market for different systems but their prices are generally very inconsistent, even in small fields.

For the time being I expect to leave the method as it is, unless you or someone comes up with an idea. I'm more concerned about the results continuing, and at the same time amazed that it is continuing to be successful.


Today there were four smiles from the four selections for a profit of $16.40.

And for the 199.50-plus method there were six smiles from the six selections for a profit of $25.45. Compensates for yesterday's loss and puts the method in profit.

P.S. - the only idea I've got about your suggestion is to somehow apply the neural price to the selection. I might have to think about it.

[Merriguy]

I guess one can be too greedy!! One can always up the liability if things keep going so well --- and keep on being successful, of course. I have been writing down the neurals for each selection; but haven't analysed them yet.

Anyway more than enough to do today with NINE meetings. Good luck.

[michaelg]

Merriguy, here's an idea that has been running in my mind concerning the method.

Seeing that the top horse in the neural rating has been performing so badly one would expect this might also apply to the more-fancied horses in the ratings.

I'm considering laying every horse in the qualifying races, and the liability will be on a sliding scale, say, of $5.

The concept is that the biggest outsider in the neural market will have the minimum S.P. liability of $30, then the next biggest outsider will have $35, and so on until the fave in the neural market has the highest liability.

So, if there are 12 horses in the race, the liability will be $85. Of course the winner/accident will obviously be struck, but there'll also be 11 horses that each will provide a profit. The worst return will be if the neural fave wins because it will have the highest liability, but the method so far shows the neural fave does not have a good record of winning.

I'm hoping the inaccuracy of the neurals will provide a nett profit using this rough version of dutch-laying.

I don't know if I will pursue the above method, but at the moment I'm considering it.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Tamworth
7/7

Pakenham
1/7
2/9
5/13
7/6
9/10

Ipswich
3/11
5/10

Sun Coast
4/9

Canterbury
5/6


200 POINTS

Tamworth
2/7
6/5

Sun Coast
3/6

Albury
1/16
2/9
3/9

Canterbury
4/6


When Geraldton scratchings are known I'll list the selections.

[Merriguy]

Couple of disagreements, Michael;

Pak should be 1/12, not 1/7 I think.

And Ipswich 4/12 and 7/8 qualify don't they?

As do Moonee Valley 4/8 and 8/9; and Cant 2/13 and 7/14???

Just did the evening meetings in a hurry to match with yours (was going to do them at my leisure this afternoon!!). So could have made a mistake or two.

[michaelg]

Hi, merriguy.

Pakenham 1/12 - I had correctly written the selection as no.12 on my sheet that I identify the selections. Don't know what went wrong. I layed no.12 and made a profit of $10.18

Ipswich 4/12 - the scratchings make it a no-race.

Ipswich 7/8 - yes, it is a selection for the 200 Points method.

M.Valley 4/8 - the scratchings make it a no race.

M.Valley 8/9 - yes it is a selection for the 200 points method.

Canterbury 2/13 - I decided not be bet on the race because all the horses are having their first race start. If this happens again I will say so when listing the selections.

Canterbury 7/14 - its scratched, and the next highest ranked horse was no.1.

As a matter of interest with the neurals, not all venues are loaded with the scratchings - I don't know why.

Geraldton
5/8
7/5

200 POINTS
8/8

[Merriguy]

Thanks, Michael. Sooner or later I'll remember the full consequence of scratchings!

Good start to the day.

[michaelg]

And sooner or later I'll remember to double-check the selections, with or without my bad back.

[michaelg]

The system has finally lost. There were 2 accidents from 7 selections for a loss of $37.28.


200 POINTS.

A good result today. There was 1 accident from 11 selections for a profit of $85.14. Fortunately I layed them, so I had a winning day.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Dombeen
7/6

Morphetville
5/5

Newcastle
7/12

Grafton
4/8

Hobart
1/5
4/9

Gold Coast
1/11
2/6
7/11
8/9


200 POINTS

Grafton
1/11 - already run- it was an accident. Not a good way to start the day!!!

Dombeen
3/7
6/16

Hobart
5/9

Gold Coast
3/6 (429 points).

Ascot to follow.

[michaelg]

Only one selection from Ascot. It is for the under 200 points.

4/7

[Merriguy]

You can be lucky sometimes. Missed laying the first at Grafton. But then missed the first at Hobart which would have been a winner!!!

Was trying to compare with your picks for the other meetings. Almost agreed; but I have: Gold Coast 1/9 (not 1/11), and in Hobart 5/9 not 5/8. And I think Rosehill 8/8 qualifies?

And Gold Coast 7/11 is scratched.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Merriguy.

My errors, you're right with your amendments - I typed the wrong numbers, and I also missed looking at Rosehill R8.

I've already layed G.C. 7/11 but will also lay no.9 and hope for the best.

[The Ocho]

G'Day Guys,

Going well so far today. I hope it keeps up.

I was just looking at the amendments and shouldn't GC Race 7 be no 1 (not 9) with no 11 scratched? Or, am I looking at the wrong figures?

[Merriguy]

Just my lazy typing (if only you knew what an effort it is for yours truly!). Its race 1 Nos 9 and 11 that we are speaking of. Neither of them won so no harm done --- actually good for Michael.

May be worth checking out Esperance. Left it and Toowoomba alone this morning. Race 1 just qualified --- and lost. Paid $31.24 (less BF commission) for $30.00 lay.

[michaelg]

Hi, The Ocho.

I made another mistake. I'd like to blame it on my back which is unfortunately still making me squirm in pain, but it mercifully isn't as bad as it was.

In my previous posting I said the correction was R7, but it was R1. So the selection was R1 no. 9, which fortunately was beaten for a very small profit of $0.39.

In spite of the early accident for the 200 Points method, it has finished in profit of $37.24.

There have not yet been any accidents for the under 200 points method.


Edit - just saw Merriguy's response answering the query.

[The Ocho]

So you guys laying GC R7/1?

[Merriguy]

No the next GC pick of the system (if you want to call it that) is R8 No9 --- be careful though it is the fav. or one of them it seems.

[michaelg]

Not the best of days. There were 2 accidents from the 11 selections for a profit of $1.60.

200 Pointer
There was 1 accident from 5 selections for a profit of $37.24. An overall profit of $38.64.

[michaelg]

Here are today's selections - hopefully they are correct.

Under 200 points.

Sapphire Coast
2/8
4/5
5/7
8/7

Bathurst
6/5

Colac
1/8
7/10

Penola
3/5
5/5

Sun Coast
6/14


200-plus points.

Colac
3/8

Sun Coast
7/13


Albany to follow.

[michaelg]

These are the selections for Albany - all under 200 points.

2/9
3/10
6/10

[Merriguy]

Just a couple I'd "challenge" you on:

Colac 8/9 --- think it also qualifies;

and Sapphire 8/7 doesn't qualify.

Good Luck!

[michaelg]

Hi, Merriguy.

You're right.

I miscalculated with the number of runners in Colac R8.

And I don't know how I identified Sapphire 8/7 as the selection because it has only the fourth highest points.


Therefore,

Colac R8 no.9 is a selection for the under 200 points method.
Sapphire R8 is a no-bet race.

Thanks, Merriguy.

[Merriguy]

Would not be worried. I know my brain is "spinning" sometimes after doing what is, on the surface, an easy task.

First pick down. Actually I didn't lay it. I think it is good to leave out of contention any that is picked by Radio Tab, Guest tipster, and Late Mail --- as was Chosira.

[michaelg]

A disaster today.

Under 200 points method.

There were 5 accidents from 14 selections for a loss of $118.56, it's still in front by $175.61. However I think I will end it because the average profit per overall selection is slightly over $2. This means that it has been taking about 15 smiles to make up for an accident.


However, with the 200 points-plus system the average profit per overall selection is about $3.50. Over the four days of betting there is a profit of $157.51.

I have been using another method that lays fancied horses. I have been looking at it for some time now but never recorded the results because some days there have been no selections. However I started laying them yesterday, and after two days there have been 21 smiles from 21 selections for a profit of $122.60. So it looks good...touch wood. And it might have more logic than the neural system which has little, if any.

If there's any selections tomorrow I'll list them. Hopefully this will compensate for the reduced action.

[Try Try Again]

Michaelg,

Well done on your systems but how do you find time to follow and investigate all these? You always seem to have another "up your sleeve"!

[michaelg]

Its something I thought about some time ago, but now that we can lay S.P. early in the morning I'm remembering some methods I had thought of previously. And for the past two weeks I've had time on my hands because of my back.

This one I've been laying for the past two days has impressed one of my punting friends who does not want me to release it. However, if it proves profitable I might do so, not publicly but privately.

[michaelg]

200 Points Method

Two selections today:

Wangaratta 3/6

Muswellbrook 3/6




New Lay Method

Scone 5/3
Wangaratta 7/1
Murwillumbah 5/4

[Stix]

I've been looking at another "illogical" lay system:

1) Identify the top neural selection based on the default/factory settings.
2) Minimum of 10 runners.
3) Lay the top selection providing it has less than 200 neural points.

....if you bet at the following tracks only..... how does it go?

"Aarat", "Armidale", "Benalla", "Bendigo", "Cairns", "Camperdown", "Canberra", "Canterbury", "Caulfield", "Colac", "Coleraine", "Coonabarabran", "Coonamble", "Cootamundra", "Cowra", "Donald", "Dunkeld", "Echuca", "Flemington", "Gillgandra", "Gawler", "Gold Coast", "Grafton", "Hamilton", "Hanging Rock", "Hawkesbury", "Horsham", "Inverall", "Kembla Grange", "Kilmore", "Kyneton", "Leeton", "Mildura", "Halidon", "Moe", "Moruya", "Mt Gambier", "Mudgee", "Murray Bridge", "Murtoa", "Murwillumbah", "Naracoorte", "Narrogin", "Narromine", "Nowra", "Oakbank", "Parkes", "Penola", "Pt Augusta", "Pt Lincoln", "Pt Macquarie", "Queanbeyan", "Quirindi", "Randwick", "Rockhampton", "Rosehill", "Sale", "Sapphire Coast", "Scone", "Stony Creek", "Tamworth", "Taree", "Tatura", "Terang", "Townsville", "Wagga", "Wangaratta", Warracknabeal", "Warren", "Warrnambool", "Wellington", "Werribee", "Wodonga", "Wyong", "Yarra Valley"

I've found these to be some of the worst performing (S/Rate) tracks for neurals.......

[michaelg]

Hi, Stix.

Unfortunately I haven't got records of the method by the tracks. I see they range from metro to bush so it's surprising they would have the same poor results. But then again, the neurals themselves can be surprising.

I have also been looking at the class of race, but there doesn't seem to be any sort of pattern.

The two selections in the 200 Points method have already been run. They were both smiles for a profit of $14.46.

[michaelg]

200 Points method.

One selection today:
Taree 8/5



New lay system.

Yesterday the Forum Curse struck.

There was one accident from the three selections for a loss of $19.01.

There's only been one accident from 24 selections so it was more or less expected.

Today's selections are:

Taree
4/9
5/9
7/3

Swan Hill
3/6
4/8

[Stix]

Don't want to hijack the thread michaelg, just looking for a bit of help from the members with unitab databases...

Could someone with a unitab database advise of the S/R and return of:
* 100 pt raters, and
* 3rd Radio Tab selection, and
* Races 1-4 only

If this could be done over a min period of 6 months, it would be very much appreciated!!

Thanks in advance!