System for those who like to bet them short...

[darkydog2002]

Go to racingandsports - Don Scott ratings.

Mark down those horses asessed at odds on.

Todays price must be $2 or better.

Required time for this = 5 minutes.

[darkydog2002]

I would apply this to Good tracks only.

Sunday 30/1/2011

Parkes
R1 H 1
R2 H 2
R 6 H 2

Devenport
R 4 H 10
R 8 H 6

Port Lincoln
R 1 H 2
R 3 H 4
R 7 H 6

[darkydog2002]

10 Horse race after scratchings only.

Top 4 X 6 X 6

[darkydog2002]

Cessknock Good TC )
Race 7 H 11

Stawell (Dead TC)
Race 1 H 7
Race 2 H 1
Race 3 H 6
Race 6 H 12
Race 8 H 9

All at $2 Minimum

Cheers
darky

[wesmip1]

darky,

I like your style and thinking. This post won't be noticed by many as it doesn't contain the big winners but I believe your system contains the most important aspects of being a winner.

1. You are using a tried and tested rating system (don scott's) to come up with logical horse selections.

2. You are finding selections that have a very good chance of winning. Odds on don scott ratings have a very good strike rate.

3. You are looking for value. (Must be higher then rated odds at $2 minimum)


That is all that is needed to grind out a profit. The one thing your missing though is numbers to back you up. So here you go:

For $1.99 and less don scott rating before scratchings and starting at $2 or higher :

486 selections for betfair return of $487 - $517

I think your a little too loose in your selections and I would propose you tighten up frm a 50% expectd win rate to those with better then a 66% chance of winning. This would be 1.50 or less :

202 selectons for a betfair return of $248 - $264

To the lurkers : Of course I could point you to the best exact cutoff but you need to work something out for yourself. BTW $1.50 is not the best cut off point. I'll tell you this though, the right cutoff produces a 66% profit and a 30% profit on tote figures.

Darky, I'll send you an email with the right cutoff point.

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

darky,

couldn't find your email. email me psmiffy79@aol.com

[TheSchmile]

Hi wesmip1,

If you don't mind, I'd also love to know the best cutoff, as it's an angle that has intrigued me for some time.

I'll email you also if that's ok?

The Schmile

[1annandale1]

Yes i have sometimes backed D Scott horses rated less than even money and paying overs . Thank you Wespmi for your analysis, not only of this system but the many other assessments you make on this site..Can you give any insight as to the return difference between maiden races and others rated less than even money and less than 1.5. Cheers

[bernie]

Hi Darky,

Thanks for your ideas

Trouble is when do you take your picks? If you go to Don Scott's Sunday market now you will notice the prices are totally different to when you picked them. Looking at Port Lincoln race 3 your pick, H 4, was odds on. However, looking at the market today your pick shows a dividend of $7.50 and H 5 is showing as odds on at $1.50. That is only one example. Most odds have changed to when you picked them.


Can anyone tell me, if the picks are taken immediately after scratchings do the prices remain the same or does Racing & Sports change them again after the race has run?

Cheers,
Bernie

[TWOBETS]

Yes bernie the DS Ratings are ammended after the race results are known to reflect the horses performance. This to me is a total waste of effort and serves to confuse anyone trying to do research on their site. Toe tall whank if u ask me!

[bernie]

Thanks TWOBETS.

No wonder the DS results look fantastic after the event.

Cheers

[darkydog2002]

To be honest I,ve never really looked at that aspect.
I am doing the form now (2.35 PM) so I,ll take note .
Thanks.
darky

[darkydog2002]

I will check the asessed prices at the end of the meetings.
Frankly I,m curious.

Warnambool
Race 4 H 4 (DS asessed $1.30)

Canberra
Race 4 H 5 (DS Asessed $1.45)

Port Mcquarie
Race 7 H 6 (DS asessed $1.80)

[darkydog2002]

Well no change in the asessed prices as given on the Don Scott Ratings.

Another winning day as usual.

Cheers
darky

[wesmip1]

Yes i have sometimes backed D Scott horses rated less than even money and paying overs . Thank you Wespmi for your analysis, not only of this system but the many other assessments you make on this site..Can you give any insight as to the return difference between maiden races and others rated less than even money and less than 1.5. Cheers
At $1.50 don scott rating or less and betfair price of $2 or more before commission and a MAIDEN : 109 selections for a return $102 - $107

At $1.50 don scott rating or less and betfair price of $2 or more before commission and not a MAIDEN : 93 selections for a return $146 - $157

Amazingly good angle on the odds on selections of don scott.

[wesmip1]

My assesed prices are before the scratchings.


At $2.00 don scott rating or less and betfair price of $2 or more before commission and a MAIDEN : 249 selections for a return $198 - $212

At $2.00 don scott rating or less and betfair price of $2 or more before commission and not a MAIDEN : 274 selections for a return $331 - $349

A higher price range confirms the angle has plausibility.

[1annandale1]

Thank you Wesmip1

I am not surprised by the profit being higher for non maidens, or the amount of profit.

Confirms my theory that in a lot of races the market prices are wrong.

I have been laying succesfully on Betfair for the last 18 months.

Without giving the System away it is almost taking the opposite approach to this!
The Backers could do well to follow the information gleaned here.
The key though to both betting and laying is discipline and flexibility.

[darkydog2002]

W.Farm
Race 4 H 3

E.Farm
Race 1 H 12

Strathalbyn
Race 2 H 3

Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Blimey,stone the crows ,put the wobbly boot on.
Our 1st losing day $50.
Panic Stations people.Time to put in some stupid rules.
2nd LS no more than 49 days ago /3rd LS no more than 89 days ago.Ho Ho.
Just joking.
Leave it as it is.

Cheers
darky

[axledog]

Gday again DD , Been AWOL recently , sorry , still have to work for a living. First thread i came back to was this because i have been doing something similar over the past 8 weeks but with a twist. Latest figures are encouraging but might get together with you and Wesnip on a pm and discuss further. Interesting ideas using DS but everyone has their own system , maybe we can crack something good , three heads are better then one. The end of the rainbow could be closer than we think?

[darkydog2002]

Hi Axledog,
I,m most interested.
I,m at hotmail.
Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Hi Bernie,
There,s a hidden trap here that I should mention.
If the Don Scott ratings have rated the TC differently from the actual days TC i,d be wary
i.e Todays rated for a dead track but todays TC are good.7/2/2011

Cheers
darky

[bernie]

Hi Darky,

Thanks. I will keep an eye on it.


Cheers,
Bernie

[darkydog2002]

Taree -TC good
Race 2 H 1
Race 3 H 9

Swan Hill - TC dead
Race 1 H 1

Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Only 1 bet today as the other meetings are different TC to what the Don Scott ratings were rated for.

Gawler
Race 3 H 13 = Sister S********.

[peter m]

Nice results there Darky, didn't bet them but definitely worth keeping an eye on and more food for thought.
Pity it's hard to check the results retrospectively as R+S seem to change the Don Scott prices after the event.
Thanks for the idea.

[darkydog2002]

I,ve never known them to do that Peter.
There is simply no point.
Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Asessed@$1.26 when I posted the tip and at 5.25PM still at that asessed price.

Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

I think some of you are taking the prices the day before .
The prices will be reasessed after scratchings are known on the day.
Hope thats of some help.

Cheers
darky

[enjay]

The prices do change after the race has been run. Refer to bottom of page one on this thread.


Tell me why but.....
Yes bernie the DS Ratings are ammended after the race results are known to reflect the horses performance. This to me is a total waste of effort and serves to confuse anyone trying to do research on their site. Toe tall whank if u ask me!
__________________
"

[enjay]

If you go to that site now (R & S) the particular horse is rated third at $7, so no use trying to check after the event........False or different ratings compared to before the event.

Hope this clears it up

Enjay

[Raven]

seeing as how that particular horse won, why did they increase its assessed price?

there must be a glitch in the database. each horses brr must be re-calculated the next day or something, and this in turn leads to a change in the previous days ratings.

[wesmip1]

Its not a glitch but how the ratings are developed.

I believe the ratings also take into account horses the horse has raced previously. If other horses which the horse raced previously also race today, then their results from today reflect in the horses price.

For example if horse A is in todays race and assessed at $2 and horse B is running in another race today. Horse A ran 3rd last start and horse B was the winner of that race (raced against each other). If horse B ran in a lower or similar class race today and came 15th when they redo the ratings the assessed price of $2 today would be dramatically altered to take into account that a horse which beat it (horse B) ran poorly today.

Its a bit hard to explain but hope you get the drift of it.

[darkydog2002]

I dont see the need of researching past results as they are just that - past.
The pattern may never repeat itself.
Just take the asessed price and get on with it.

Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Morphetville Rated for dead
R 2 H 4 (asessed $1.75)
R 5 H 6 ($1.80)

Randwick - rated for dead
R 2 H 3 ($1.80 )
R 5 H 1 ($1.30)

Caulfield -rated for dead
R 4 H 1 ($1.26 )
R 5 H 1 ($1.60 )

Recheck prices after scratchings are known.

Cheers
darky

[lomaca]

Its not a glitch but how the ratings are developed.

I believe the ratings also take into account horses the horse has raced previously. If other horses which the horse raced previously also race today, then their results from today reflect in the horses price.

For example if horse A is in todays race and assessed at $2 and horse B is running in another race today. Horse A ran 3rd last start and horse B was the winner of that race (raced against each other). If horse B ran in a lower or similar class race today and came 15th when they redo the ratings the assessed price of $2 today would be dramatically altered to take into account that a horse which beat it (horse B) ran poorly today.

Its a bit hard to explain but hope you get the drift of it.I except your explanation simply because I do not know any better myself.
However if I quoted a horse at $2 on my website and changed it to $7 after the race I'd be tarred and feathered in short notice I can assure you.

What is the POINT of putting up a price before the race and change it AFTER the race?

By all means change it if there is a scratching, but rating the same race again on the same day after the race had been run?

Makes no sense at all, unless you want to hide the fact that your rating was cr...p to begin with.

Trying to prevent collecting data is a silly thing to do too, because most people look at the neurals before the race anyway, so again why do it?

It's a puzzle.

Good luck

[michaelg]

lomaca,

when the people at the R & S website started doing this some time ago I e-mailed them asking the reason(s) because what they are doing can be confusing and not really helpful to the punter who looks for any sort of consistency with ratings/rankings etc.

And anyone with a cynical and suspicious mind could easily say with some justification that its also deceitful.

I'm surprised that no one on the R & S forum has mentioned this, not to my knowledge anyway.

I'm still waiting for a reply to my e-mail, and I've had a couple of birthdays since sending it.

[lomaca]

lomaca,

when the people at the R & S website started doing this some time ago I e-mailed them asking the reason(s) because what they are doing can be confusing and not really helpful to the punter who looks for any sort of consistency with ratings/rankings etc.

And anyone with a cynical and suspicious mind could easily say with some justification that its also deceitful.

I'm surprised that no one on the R & S forum has mentioned this, not to my knowledge anyway.

I'm still waiting for a reply to my e-mail, and I've had a couple of birthdays since sending it.Michael, I never said this before, I take notice of other's tips and selections, but NEVER EVER make use of them.
Be it tabrate or 100 pointers, tips, whispers whatever.

My simple reasoning is this: you will never know when it's going to change, never know when it's going to stop.

It's OK for the occasional punter who almost expects to lose anyway, but to build a system-rating on it while you punt for a living?

That would be insane!

Good luck

[michaelg]

I believe Maria had/s a mechanical system that made her rich and famous, even though we don't know how the system has fared over the past few years.

And with Betfair's high prices I don't think it's inconceivable that systems would necessary fail.

And its good for the gray matter.

[lomaca]

I believe Maria had/s a mechanical system that made her rich and famous, even though we don't know how the system has fared over the past few years.

And with Betfair's high prices I don't think it's inconceivable that systems would necessary fail.

And its good for the gray matter.Yes I heard about that one, but we don't really know what it was based on.
I suspect it was price?

If it came to that, and I had to rely on outside tips, I would recommend the tips on Supertab. The tips bit comes from Skyrating and the "Form Best Overall" on the betting page comes from somewhere else, I know because they are different and I just ran a test for someone else.

It's computer generated and if the operator changes, so what?
Secondly, the TAB creams its profit off the top before the race so they don't care who wins, as long people bet, they make money, so it should a be reliable source for the long term.

Private providers on the other hand may look grand and generous in providing info, but nothing for nothing as the saying goes, and every website can look grand on the internet but for how long?

Hence is my reluctance, to rely on ratings I have no control over.

I look at them and test them to see if they are any better then mine and why, but that's about it.

Good luck

[michaelg]

There is a previous forum member who in 2007 wrote here:

"Maria Santorix sent me a PM on another overseas forum. It is definitely a system based on trainers, sires and form. It took her a couple of minutes each day to pick the lays, so it's more mechanical than we are led to believe".



I'm sure she's given hope to many "systems" people.

In spite of that, I would prefer to calculate my own prices and then bet the overlays, but unfortunately I'm not savvy with computers.

And I would not be surprised if most successful punters are those who bet on overlays using price-ratings.

[wesmip1]

I use systems (no surprise there) and make a good profit every year.
It can be done. Well researched selections with a high probability of winning are the best ways to make a profit in my opinion. The only issue is most peoples systems are not well researched or aimed at high probability selections.

For instance I can bet overlays that are $100 when they should be $50 but thats just a difference of 1% in the chance of winning. If my selection technique has an error rate great then 1% I am going to lose long term.
On the other hand if my selection is $4 and I classed it as a $2 chance (same as above double the money to what was estimated) then I have estimated a 50% chance of winning and the market has given me odds of 25%. Thats a 25% difference. My technique on ratings can now be 25% off before I would lose long term. Also my run of outs on a $4 selection overlay vs $100 overlay is a lot less and won't hit me pschologically.

Things to think about.