Improvers

[Barny]

1) Horse must have improved at each and every run from a spell, measured by it's placing in the races, not lengths beaten.

2) Horse must be increasing in distance at each and every run from a spell.

3) If there's more than one selection, pick the one with the most runs this time in eg: A = s62 & B = 873 = Selection is B

You can direct deposit into my bank account as a measure of your gratitude.

[Sands]

Thanks Barny
Bit surprised lengths beaten not part of rule 1
The cheque's in the mail ;)

[Barny]

The more runs the horse has, the better, ie: 0741 is a much better proposition than say 62.

It could be the basis of a decent system.

[darkydog2002]

Any cutoff points ?
i.e Last 4 starts ,5,6 etc

or LS must be 1 - 4

Cheers
darky

[Barny]

darkydog, this is not well researched at all, just an observation from reading 5+ years worth of form guides I have at my disposal. The better ones seem to be 3 starts plus. It has thrown up some decent winners, but the rule of increasing in distance cuts out a few decent longshot winners.

I'm sure it could be the start of a decent system.

At the moment I'm finishing rules to select a stable.

Have you looked into the proposition that a horses SR taken at a certain point in time will decrease at a rate of about 15% in the future, (obviously with a couple of filters.)

So, 25% SR now (with filters) will become 20% (approx) over the next few years.

It's as reliable as the favourite winning 30% of the time.

[darkydog2002]

Hi Barney,
I used to correspond with a gent who used this system but going back 4 starts and didnt consider the increase in distance factor.He did quite well on gallops and dogs.

The decrease in Win % could be to do with age - the best racing years of a thoroughbred beng 3 - 4 or 5 .From there on in the majority of horses a gradual decline in performance is expected.

Cheers
darky

[Barny]

I'm declining with age ........... sigh, but I never had a decent SR to start with !

[lomaca]

.
So, 25% SR now (with filters) will become 20% (approx) over the next few years.

It's as reliable as the favourite winning 30% of the time.Barny, there is a reason why most serious punters only look at the last three runs of a horse,while at the same time taking notice of (but not being blinded by) the past performance.

Just as you said "I'm declining with age" horses do that too, but the opposite is also true! (provided you are young enough)

I'm a great believer in betting on first up horses over short distances, but the first up record HAS to be recent! Most form guides only tell you the number of first up starts and the outcome.

Could have happened 5 years ago!!
Jeeez, five years ago I could see my toes!

Good luck

[Barny]

lomaca, I like win % of horses, but for example I do take notice of recent campaigns too. It's not a hard and fast rule for the particular period in which I'm evaluating my selection, but the % I'm looking for is !

Toes ..... hmmmm

[darkydog2002]

I,ve been on a diet so starting to see my toes.Gees its been a long time.

[garyf]

hi barny
i find that ranking the horses win s/rate order is more reliable than say the actual s/rate this is more prevalent in the long distance races where horses require several conditioning runs to bring them to peak fitness thus lowering their s/rate as against sprinters who can win 1st up 2nd up or whenever the average s/rate of horses is around the 17%-18% according to malcolm knowles book consistency or 1 win about every 6 starts actually according to malcolm ranking horses by their place% is more profitable than the win% this is for the top rated only the top =5 win% s/rate =67% whilst the top=5 place%=67.1% just with betting on maidens you can rank these type of races as well i never bet any of my rated horses unless they are the top=5 place% has saved me $1,000s over the years and improved my s/rate no ends but that's just me
cheers
garyf

[Barny]

brill garyf ..... thanks ! :)

[Sands]

The more runs the horse has, the better, ie: 0741 is a much better proposition than say 62.

It could be the basis of a decent system.
Yeah Barny you could be on to something
garyf input very interesting