Platform for a system!

[Vortech]

Do you all agree the base for a good system relies on a good database with a rating system. Regards of the rating system, the top pick should be the greatest variable in getting the best POT.

Regardless of which you use either, top neural on R&S, radio tipsters, 100 unitab or a database of your own, this is the key variable.

From that point you can isolate other variables like days to last start, barriers etc.......

I have heard much talk about 3-5 variables being the ideal number for a long term success, but what is the ultimate best variable to use out in the marketplace for free? Is it unitab or R&S?

Does a good system rely on seeing price fluctation before jump. My diliema is I'm trying to create a good system on the weekdays where I can access the race before heading to work, place the bets and review results at home. Should I be looking at maybe 2 rating systems?

Any ideas?

PS: Very disappointed in my part ownership horse Spirit of Many today at Sandown Race 9. Last start at Geelong only beaten by 1 length to Enjin Number Nine who won the 6th today at Sandown beating Star Witness.

Cheers

[Barny]

The Best : Strictly 14 days from it's previous run. I believe it's much better than the strict 7 days.

The Worst : Dropping in Class. Logic is that it's run it's guts out in much stronger company trying to keep up and might be flat. For that risk you're getting under the odds. Similarly with well really well performed two year olds after a spell. Wouldn't touch them with a ten foot pole.

[Barny]

Sorry about that ! I didn't mean to get in the way of your post Vortech. I've reinstated your heading !

Must be getting close to beer o'clock ...........

[Vortech]

Surely just purely backing all horses with a 100 unitab over horses with 14 days last start would give you a better pot?

[Vortech]

Just ran over my database all selections 14 days last start.
26,065 bets for 20,698.60 return (-20.6% POT)

[Dale]

The filters you appply need to be ones that suit the individual ratings,they also must be original in that if they are just the same old last start winner,raced so many days ago,up or down this much in weight etc etc we are never going to get a result different from what everyone else has already tried.

[darkydog2002]

As I,ve mentioned before and others have confirmed the filter that shows the least loss on turnover per year is

"Won last 3 starts in current campaign."

How many bets per year you,d get with it is anyones guess.

Cheers
darky

[Vortech]

In 2010, won last 3 starts in campaign (89 bets for 59.3 return or (-33 POT)

[Dale]

So it becomes public knowledge that won last 3 starts is the best producing filter and then the bottom drops out of it because there is no longer any value left in the selections.

Thats exactly what im talking about.

[Crackone]

unitab 100 pointer,
two placings from last three starts, (x counted as start)
one last start,
distance more than 1050m ,
prize money same or less.

[Vortech]

With a S/R of 25% approx, no bookie is going to give you over $4 a win on a horse with 3 wins from last 3 starts. Its not a matter of value in the horses, more they haven't won enough races.