Winning Betting System

[Cathy]

Has anyone found a betting system that actually works?
I have tried lots of systems but I haven't found one yet.

PS.Some talked about huge profits too and sounded really convincing.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Cathy on 2001-07-25 10:44 ]</font>

[Piggy]

I'm just like you Cathy. I haven't either. I would love to hear from someone who has a winning system.

[jessica]

I have tried all sorts of ideas and am always interested in other ideas.Anyone who emails me with a system I will send back some that I have collected.

[pengo]

At the moment there's no such thing as a computer program that will win at punting. No simple 'winning system', it's too complicated.
</p>



It boils down to this, you need to be able to frame a market. That is figure out the real odds of each horse winning the race. Then use this information to bet on horses which the bookies are paying higher odds for than your odds.
</p>



If you can I suggest you read Dr Turf's Guide to Better Punting (Penguin, probably out of print). Some of the stuff about the class system is out of date ( but you still need to know what classes are) but you will get a good idea about what you need to learn in order to become a winning punter. It also reviews the different kinds of services you can buy.
</p>



Services like this one (propun) don't offer systems, they do the form analysis for you and provide you with framed markets. The work is done by human form analysts, using their knowledge and intellect. I can't vouch for whether you will win money or not using their service, but you'll do a helluvalot better than using random guessing (like 99% of punters) or some computer generated crap.
</p>

[matt]

I agree that 'systems' are just about all rubbish.
Most of them use retro-fitting. They look at the last couple of years results, find a whole bunch of long priced winners. See what they have in common, et voila. Then they write a program that does something like:
"back all horses whose trainer's middle name starts with a 'T' if the day is Thursday otherwise back all Brown horses whose Jockey's Mother's dog is called 'Spot' and who have a white patch and their nose ...

[Steve]

Hello
It would appear that it is possible to win at punting with a computer program check out these sites http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/technology/2000/1103/tech.computing.html and http://www1.odt.co.nz/cgi-bin/getitem?date=20Oct97&object=1019835801&type=html the thing is that these guys wouldnt share a program that is effectively a golden goose.
Yours Steve

[pengo]

Ha!
Well spotted.
The thing about Hong Kong is that it's a very large tote which allows electronic placement of bets.
Even with mediocre ratings for the fields you can win money by exploiting movements in the betting market. This is where I believe the real smarts of their system are. I think the '20 factors affecting form' are a red herring. Of course it's impossible to know for sure without seeing the software for ones self.

[King Mouse]

My winning system is very simple.
Find all horses ridden by jockeys who have come to a city meeting for only one ride.
Then use a bit of intelligence and you'll back winners.
I backed Steve Sharman at Moonee Valley on Saturday.

[imfubar]

My system seems to be doing ok, i do not need a disc just apply a few basic factors, proper staking plan and min value that i am willing to accept.My 6 mth trial run is nearly complete. I am thinking of supplying it to people for free for 1 month and then charging them after they see that it works. Is this something that u would be interested is looking into.

[Damon]

Well I'd be interested in seeing your results.Post your selections here before the races and show us how you go. This is always a good indication.If you don't want to do that email me the selections BEFORE the races so I can see how you go.

[Greg]

Thanx Matt, that sounds like a great system. I'll have to check it out. And honestly it's probably as good as any other "system". Last Melb Cup day my sister virtually used a pin and came out ahead.
pengo is dead right - you need to understand the market. What is really needed is a combination of good selections and smart staking.
Maybe we should all learn to be bookies.

[Mark]

Greg
Funny you should say we should all learn to be bookies. Several months ago I placed an ad trying to sell what I do, what in effect is bet like a bookie. Had several interested parties, but no takers. The other week on the Randwick greyhound track I had my best day yet, and I don't even do the form!
Good bookieing, I mean punting.

[Tony]

If you don't mind revealing, how many horses per race are you backing using your
bookie-esque system Mark?

[Mark]

Tony
It depends on the market. In a race of 10 starters I would be on between 7 & 9 of the runners. Have a read of my posting under SUNLINE.

[Tony]

Yes, I read that Mark and searched all the Sydney Saturday races this year with 8 to 12 starters. Out of the 150 races found there were 50 winners in the 6/1 or better range (can only search on tote odds but close enough for the purposes of this exercise) These 50 averaged 15/1 or close enough. If the favourite averaged 7/4 in these races, you are left with about 70% even if your market is 105 which I can't ever remember seeing in Melbourne unless you are talking top of the flucs across the board. At this rate backing every horse bar the favourite in these races was a very big losing game unless (a) you are very selective which race you enter, how to without considering form? (b) you lay more than 1 horse as you appear to from the above post, again how without form.
I am not doubting you are doing it Mark just trying to get you to divulge a bit more of your method which understandably you may decline.

[Mark]

Tony
You're right, I'm not going to give everything away, because I have tried to market what I do at what I thought to be be an extremely reasonable rate. Initial enquiries were met with a mix of scepticism (fair enough) to laziness, i.e "that won't work" or "sounds too complicated to me".
I bet on a lot more Syd than Melb, and Brisbane in a blue moon & Adelaide in a polka dot moon. Yes I am selective, but not by form study but by market structure. A race with a short priced fav or 2 right in the market are ususally good races, UNLESS the % are too high, say 115+ on top odds. A bad race would be 4/1,4/1,9/2,9/2,7/1,7/1,20/1,20/1, 111% win and 299% place, the place % is the key, and how much you have on each selection varies.
In your example did you look at the price of the placed horses as well?, & your research showed that 1 in 3 winners were 6/1+ & averaged 15/1, so 33% winning races at 15/1, sounds good to me. You ask if the fav was 7/4; there have been races where equal favs have been say 2/1 each, that leaves me with 39%, not 70, there have been races where there were 3 well in the market, say 2/1, 5/2 & 7/2, and predicted to run 1-2-3 by all the so-called experts, that leaves me with 22%. There have been races where the fav or favoured horse has won, roughies have run the places & I have won or received most of my stake back. What I'm saying is that it's not all cut & dried straight 'dutch-book' staking, and the staking is the part that I'm definately not giving away. 2 last very rare examples. Race 1 has 2 @ evens & 6 @ 100/1. Win = 106%, place = 184%. Race 2 has 12 runners all @ 11/1. Win = 100% BUT the place = closer to 320%. A big difference. Who knows, if this keeps up Propun may offer me a job as some sort of market analyst!!!??? Anyone truly interested can email me on LynneMark@bigpond.com

[Tony]

Mark, I can't retrieve place prices using my software so I can't answer your question.
Your approach seems like one that relies on a feel for a set of circumstances that is not easily transferrable to someone not accustomed to observing data from such a perspective. Like all approaches to form study, beauty is in the eye of the practiced observor.

[taipan]

Mark,
What would the possibilities be for your system if you were able to offload runners that you had backed, by laying them off a short time later at a shorter price?
Taipan

[Mark]

Taipan
That would be the icing on the cake, but we all know that sort of thing doesn't go in betting rings. Just like nobody bets on protests.

[cameron398]

Hi Cathy - you may like to talk with me. Email me direct on cameron398@ozemail.com.au re a trifecta system which you may be interested in...

[cameron398]

How rude of me - anyone can email me of course... not just you Cathy. Also just to let people know - I have six weeks left of a test period on my system. I only recently fine tuned it to the point where I am now hopeful my five year old toy will produce consistent profits. Should it work it will not be for sale - however, I will need a syndicate to increase my profits. Obviously all syndicate members must profit before i do. The only thing is the members will be handing over investment monies and they will never know the bets I am placing as they will be confidential - already looking like a scam you say? Well that will be the only deal I can offer and if people come on board well and good - if not I can go it alone.

Email me direct if anyone wants my test results as they unfold. Presently they are for the last three weeks 103.1% - 207.04% - 98.02% (100% is the break even so I have had a minor win, a huge win and a minor loss)

I am hoping of it averaging about 150% on turnover - that will be a considerable amount of money for all...



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: cameron398 on 2001-09-14 19:11 ]</font>