Don Scott - Food For Thought?

[michaelg]

Just out of interest, here's a little something I looked at before today's races began.

I looked at Don Scott's market where the fave and second fave are within $1.00 of each other.

I then recorded all selections under $20 in his market.

There have been 4 races run so far and the results are.

Got all 4 winners. Outlay of $19 - return of $22.60 (NSW TAB)

Got all 4 quinellas. Outlay of $37 - return of $47

Got 3 trifectas. Outlay of $228 - return of $490

Got 2 F.Fours. Outlay of $528 - return of $5,000


One more race to go.

Goulburn R7. nos. 2, 4,9, 12.

We'll see how it goes as it is yet to run.

[lomaca]

Just out of interest, here's a little something I looked at before today's races began.

I looked at Don Scott's market where the fave and second fave are within $1.00 of each other.

I then recorded all selections under $20 in his market.

Hi Michael,
so which ones did you bet on then?

All of them under $20 or EXCLUDED the two shortest and bet on the rest under $20?

Cheers

[michaelg]

lomaca, I didn't bet on them, unfortunately. I'm looking at backing all selections that qualify for the method regardless of their starting price.

In the last race we lost in a photo. Win betting on all today's selections would have had a loss of $0.40 on the TAB, but I'm sure they would have been profitable on Betfair. And the three types of exotic bets would also have been profitable.

It's something I'll look at. Maybe the $1 rule might have some merit...?

[michaelg]

We'll see how today's selections fare:

Mornington
2/7, 9, 11
5/1, 2, 4, 8, 9
6/1, 4, 8, 11, 12

Eagle Farm
4/1, 2, 6, 7, 11
6/3, 8, 9, 12

Murray Bridge
5/3, 4, 12, 16, 19
8/3, 4, 7, 11, 13, 15

Bunbury
2/2, 3, 4, 6
4/2, 5, 7, 12
8/3, 4, 8, 10,12

[michaelg]

I just checked the current results. Two races have been run.

Got both winners for a return of $33.50 on NSWTAB and $38.40 on Betfair S.P., (which fortunately I have bet) and includes the 5% commission.

Got both quinellas for a return of $48.

Got one trifecta for a return of $620.

Not too bad a result seeing that the total Win outlay was $46, the quinella outlay was $81, and the trifecta outlay was $558.

[garyf]

hi michaelg
a semi-professional punting mate of mine uses the don scott ratings this way hits the clear button on (form)( condition)(consistency)(barrier position)(jockey) then hits submit leaving the market at 90% only considers horses priced at less than <$11.0 in the market and only considers races where their are no more than 4 chances at <$11.0 so you are effectively looking at the top =4 (best recent run) only so a straight don scott weight rating as i have no back data maybe wesmip1 or lomaca could investigate in all fairness this may worsen the profits on your system i have absolutely no idea food for thought i guess as i said may not work at all he only bets when the minimum price is $3.0> and only considers races where all horses have had at least 2 starts> bets melb sydney metro only
cheers
garyf

[michaelg]

Hi, Garyf.

I presume your mate wins?

I find that D.S. prices can be at times puzzling, and the trick imho is to know what races to bet to use his market. I would assume if your mate continually wins, then he's found a way to do so.

I'm hoping my idea of the $1 difference might be successful too, even though I have no valid reason to expect it to, except maybe for stability of D.S.'s market?

Just got another winner of $14.35 - I can't lose now, even with six more races to go.

[lomaca]

Hi, Garyf.

I'm hoping my idea of the $1 difference That is what I was asking about yesterday Michael, I would have thought, that either you bet on those two, or leave the race alone?

What's your reasoning? Only if it's not something you want to keep to yourself of course.
Sometimes the strangest ideas have the best outcome.

Good luck

[michaelg]

The $1 difference is hoping that it is the right race to bet on using the D.S. market.

I don't have any real reason for this. I think its because I've often noticed some of his faves are odds-on in his market and the form does not support such a short price. And as you say, sometimes the strangest ideas have the best outcome.

There's only one way to find out.

[garyf]

hi michael no my mate loses he's won 3 out of 5 years small wins when he won small losses when he loses still works that's why i class him semi pro compared to what he used to lose this system cuts his losses big time filters are distance and field size the night meetings are the killer moonee valley and canterbury can't convince him to stop betting them better off giving it a miss stick with what you've got now i reckon good luck dream start today for sure.
cheers
garyf.

[darkydog2002]

I,d also be looking at upgrade/downgrade of the TC they were originally rated for as happened today.

Cheers
darky

[Dale]

I find that D.S. prices can be at times puzzling, and the trick imho is to know what races to bet to use his market..

Michael, i dont use the don scott information i prefer my own ratings so as to give me an edge but no matter what the ratings the same things seem to apply.

Filtering by race and working out when the ratings are at their most accurate is the key.

It might be worth looking at the other top raters who have a greater than $1.00 advantage over the second rater as a supplement to this one also.

Cheers

[michaelg]

Dale, most of the D.S. faves have more than $1 advantage over the second-rater.

What I might also do is to look at those races where the D.S. fave is at, or over a certain price in the hope that his market is somewhat stable.

[michaelg]

I'll give the method another go today.

Hawkesbury
1/1, 7 ,8
3/1, 5
5/1, 2, 9

Ballarat
3/1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 11, 12. The D.S. fave is $7.00.

From memory, the races where he rates the fave at $5-plus has a good record with the exotics.