strike rates

[garyf]

hi all anybody with a system or ratings who has had a sufficient nos of bets say 200> who wishes to know the approximate numbers of outs they'll occur during a certain bet period just post your s/rate on the forum and i'll give you a reply based on between 1-10,000 bets as fav's win 30% approx of all races here's the approximate run of outs one would possibly expect with a 30% s/rate
bets=1-10(outs=4.5)bets=11-100(outs=10.7)bets=101-1,000(outs=16.9)
bets=1001-10,000(outs=23.1)pretty sobering stuff isn't it it's good for me when going through a run of outs to look up my s/rate then the probable run of outs and gain some satisfaction that this a normal occurrence for my system not the system needs to be turfed in the bin (YET) source of these s/rates is (mathematics for the punter)(written by the turf accountant)for (PUNTERS CHOICE) as honest and unbiased organization i know of for any doubters out there.
cheers garyf

[moeee]

Your posts would make much better reading if Full Stops were placed where they should go , and new sentences started with a Capital Letter.

As they are at the minute, they are very ugly and I choose not to read them.

Its a shame because there appears to be much useful and useable information in them.

[garyf]

i'm actually here for the punt moeee not the english lesson. ???

[stugots]

totally agree moeee

[garyf]

as moeee and stugots can't understand my post's no more from me.
cheers
garyf

[Dale]

lol

[stugots]

doubt anyone is disputing your posts are worth reading, but large chunks of unformatted text make it a real chore

[The Ocho]

How about this:

hi all,

Anybody with a system or ratings, who has had a sufficient nos of bets (say 200>) who wishes to know the approximate numbers of outs that'll occur during a certain bet period, just post your s/rate on the forum and i'll give you a reply based on between 1-10,000 bets.

As fav's win 30% approx of all races here's the approximate run of outs one would possibly expect with a 30% s/rate: bets=1-10(outs=4.5), bets=11-100(outs=10.7), bets=101-1,000, (outs=16.9), bets=1001-10,000(outs=23.1).

Pretty sobering stuff isn't it.

It's good for me when going through a run of outs to look up my s/rate then the probable run of outs and gain some satisfaction that this a normal occurrence for my system not the system needs to be turfed in the bin (YET).

Source of these s/rates is "Mathematics for the Punter" written by the turf accountant for PUNTERS CHOICE. As honest and unbiased organization i know of for any doubters out there.

cheers garyf

[stugots]

.

[lomaca]

as moeee and stugots can't understand my post's no more from me.
cheers
garyfgaryf,

so instead of following the accepted and courteous internet etiquette of using paragraphs and full sentences with punctuation to make it easier to read, you choose to depart?

Come on man/woman, nobody is questioning your knowledge of the subject, but you have to admit, it's not easy to read a jumbled spaghetti of words!

Many would give up just by looking at it.

Cheers

[michaelg]

Garyf, I'm not being picky but at times it is not easy to read.

One of the golden rules when communicating is to ensure that you cannot be misunderstood. I'm sure you want your readers to understand the points you are making because we are all interested in them.

[garyf]

agree will read not post anymore

[moeee]

as moeee and stugots can't understand my post's no more from me.
cheers
garyf

So you stand up on your milk crate and begin preaching, and people up the back can't hear you, and ask that you speak louder, so instead of speaking a little louder , you get offended and pack up your sermon and move on.

[garyf]

surely moeee it's no big deal if i post or not many other informed people here

[moeee]

surely moeee it's no big deal if i post or not many other informed people here

Actually its certainly no big deal to me at all - I'm a greyhound Punter, and your posts are of no more use to me than reading a "Mills and Boon" Novel.

ButifI'mgonnareadsomething,itwouldhavetobelegibleorIsimplywon'tbother.

[Dale]

How about this:

hi all,

Anybody with a system or ratings, who has had a sufficient nos of bets (say 200>) who wishes to know the approximate numbers of outs that'll occur during a certain bet period, just post your s/rate on the forum and i'll give you a reply based on between 1-10,000 bets.

As fav's win 30% approx of all races here's the approximate run of outs one would possibly expect with a 30% s/rate: bets=1-10(outs=4.5), bets=11-100(outs=10.7), bets=101-1,000, (outs=16.9), bets=1001-10,000(outs=23.1).

Pretty sobering stuff isn't it.

It's good for me when going through a run of outs to look up my s/rate then the probable run of outs and gain some satisfaction that this a normal occurrence for my system not the system needs to be turfed in the bin (YET).

Source of these s/rates is "Mathematics for the Punter" written by the turf accountant for PUNTERS CHOICE. As honest and unbiased organization i know of for any doubters out there.

cheers garyf


Is that what he said,like the others i didnt read all of it cause it was not set out in a readable format,it was giving me a headache

Its a good quality post,shame about the dummy spit.

[garyf]

hey moeee what about posting something on greyhound racing for us all then.

[lomaca]

I'm a greyhound Punter
moeee my friend

Go to the "Form" on the Supertab (VIC I use) look up "Time Rating" for the race in question, pick the second selection.

If >= $4 close to starting time, 12.5% profit this month without any other filter!

Good luck

[moeee]

hey moeee what about posting something on greyhound racing for us all then.

I do post something on Greyhound Racing.
If you would like to read , then you will find it in the relevant Sub-Forum.

I do try to post something useful, readable and profitable.
At the moment I am failing in some , or all of those criteria.
But then again, its not up to me to decide on my posts worth, and as yet, I have not had any input from other members and am quite lonely :(

[moeee]

moeee my friend

Go to the "Form" on the Supertab (VIC I use) look up "Time Rating" for the race in question, pick the second selection.

If >= $4 close to starting time, 12.5% profit this month without any other filter!

Good luck

That may be true and also very useful for those speculators that want to make a dollar.
But I myself get more than 50% of satisfaction from studying the Form and then pitting my studies against the general consensus.
Simply doing a mathematical method without any annalysis is not my prefferred method and I find that about as exciting as placing coins in a slot machine.

But thank you for your advice Lomaca.
I'll go and have a look tonights Meeting at SALE and perhaps I can use your method to adjust my thoughts to get a more accurate results than I am getting at the minute, which ain't all that accurate :(

[stugots]

garyf , if your still around would you care to opine on -

strike rate 22.92%
avg divy $6.06

over 3000 bets now

[woof43]

An old sheet I used. might be useful for someone and it'simple to follow

[garyf]

Love to help stugot have the answers in front of me.
Problem is judging on previous posts how will you understand it.
The average dividend only affects the profitability not the s/rate.
By your stats a s/rate of approx 23% av div $6.0 is in profit well done.
cheers
garyf.

[stugots]

Love to help stugot have the answers in front of me.
Problem is judging on previous posts how will you understand it.
The average dividend only affects the profitability not the s/rate.
By your stats a s/rate of approx 23% av div $6.0 is in profit well done.
cheers
garyf.

well dude, all i can say is -

DIDUMS

[partypooper]

Well, I guess thats 38% POT (Profit on Turnover)? well done; I can only envy, as after 46 years of "Investing" I can tell you that I would be ECSTATIC with a guaranteed 5% POT

[Barny]

garyf, I like the info in your posts !

We're all allowed to communicate the way we wish surely ?

Don't go.

[garyf]

For stugots only.
Can't give you 29.92% exactly have to adjust to 23%.
On my sheet the next 7,000 bets will result in a run of outs(=32)approx.
This includes the didums factor(dude).
Allow say 15% either way and you'll be extremely close.
Hope you can understand the new format i am posting.
I am getting a headache again, off to the greyhound
section to read moeee's posts to relieve it?.
garyf.

[garyf]

Thanks for the support barny.
Obviously trying to punt and post at the same time doesn't work.
Posting stats then coming back at intervels was why the jumbled mess.
Hope you don't get attacked like i did for defending me.
Good luck with the improvers system down the track will post,
Other stats like the 1-5 pl% to hopefully improve the s/rate.
The 2nd stat is something i haven't seen posted on this forum yet,
But is very effective in improving the s/rate of a system.
cheers
garyf

[michaelg]

Garyf.

I previously commented on your postings.

What you are doing now is very easy to understand. Keep it up.

Cheers.

[stugots]

'punting & posting', doing 2 things at once sounds dangerous gazza, careful now

your figures roughly tie in with mine so cheers for the effort

[stugots]

Well, I guess thats 38% POT (Profit on Turnover)? well done; I can only envy, as after 46 years of "Investing" I can tell you that I would be ECSTATIC with a guaranteed 5% POT


party, yeh these are betfair divs so to bring it into perspective knock say 15% off to get it back to approx tab returns & these days with all my systems I include what I call the 'murphys law reduction factor' - in this case 15% would be fair - you know those days when the power goes out, internet service provider goes broke, missus has a kid etc etc, all those trivial type interruptions to daily punting life weve got to put up with.

which gets us back to between 5%-10% return @ tab divs which gets the job done

[garyf]

Hi stugots.
************ed it up at approx 3.000 bets the run of outs should have been (23)approx.
When you reach 10.000 bets the run of outs should be then (32)approx.
Won't post anymore till later on tonight as the races are about to start.
My last bettable race is murwillumbah race =7 at 5.45, then off to basketball.
Any replies will answer tomorrow morning, good luck to everyone.
Ran out of vegemite to put on the dummy so discarded it obviously.
cheers
garyf.

[Dale]

Love your new work Garyf.

Cheers

[Dale]

I include what I call the 'murphys law reduction factor' - in this case 15% would be fair - you know those days when the power goes out, internet service provider goes broke, missus has a kid etc etc, all those trivial type interruptions to daily punting life weve got to put up with.




Lmao.

Seriously though its a good point and one that has to be factored into the equation.

[stugots]

Dale, maybe its just me but i reckon the saying 'if it can go wrong, it will' was originally coined specially for punters