garyf
22nd February 2011, 09:52 AM
number of bets in sequence
Strike Rate(%) (10) (100) (1,000) (10,000)
95 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.8
90 0.7 1.7 2.7 3.6
85 1.0 2.1 3.4 4.6
80 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.6
75 1.4 3.0 4.8 6.3
70 1.7 3.5 5.4 7.4
65 1.9 4.0 6.3 8.5
60 2.2 4.6 7.1 9.7
55 2.5 5.3 8.1 11.1
50 2.8 6.0 9.2 12.6
45 3.1 6.8 10.7 14.4
40 3.6 7.8 12.3 16.8
35 4.0 9.1 14.3 19.9
30 4.5 10.7 16.9 23.1
25 5.0 12.7 20.6 28.2
20 5.8 15.5 25.8 36.9
15 6.5 19.7 34.1 48.5
10 7.5 26.9 49.2 70.9
5 8.7 42.1 86.6 132.8
The truth is their is no correct formula to calculate what the longest probable losing run is or even if their is a workable formula.
By repeating a certain situation over and over again on a computer it is possible to calculate the probability of a certain event occurring.
Taking the most profitable rating services, with the most profitable mechanical systems we simulated different strike rates over various bets.
For example,take the situation of a system with a 20% strike rate and a 100 bet sample for instance our computers mimicked these systems over a 100 simulated bets and recorded the longest losing sequence.
It then repeated this test 999 more times and divided the sum of these losing sequences by 1,000 this produced the average longest losing sequences.
As produced almost word for word in the article mathematics for the punter author the turf accountant writing for punter's choice.
Sorry about the length of the post but producing a set of figures as above without verification as to where they came from(authenticity),and how they were derived to me is useless, note at the start the comment about no satisfactory formula this is a guide only.
Hope most can understand the way it is set out and the meaning.
cheers
garyf
Strike Rate(%) (10) (100) (1,000) (10,000)
95 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.8
90 0.7 1.7 2.7 3.6
85 1.0 2.1 3.4 4.6
80 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.6
75 1.4 3.0 4.8 6.3
70 1.7 3.5 5.4 7.4
65 1.9 4.0 6.3 8.5
60 2.2 4.6 7.1 9.7
55 2.5 5.3 8.1 11.1
50 2.8 6.0 9.2 12.6
45 3.1 6.8 10.7 14.4
40 3.6 7.8 12.3 16.8
35 4.0 9.1 14.3 19.9
30 4.5 10.7 16.9 23.1
25 5.0 12.7 20.6 28.2
20 5.8 15.5 25.8 36.9
15 6.5 19.7 34.1 48.5
10 7.5 26.9 49.2 70.9
5 8.7 42.1 86.6 132.8
The truth is their is no correct formula to calculate what the longest probable losing run is or even if their is a workable formula.
By repeating a certain situation over and over again on a computer it is possible to calculate the probability of a certain event occurring.
Taking the most profitable rating services, with the most profitable mechanical systems we simulated different strike rates over various bets.
For example,take the situation of a system with a 20% strike rate and a 100 bet sample for instance our computers mimicked these systems over a 100 simulated bets and recorded the longest losing sequence.
It then repeated this test 999 more times and divided the sum of these losing sequences by 1,000 this produced the average longest losing sequences.
As produced almost word for word in the article mathematics for the punter author the turf accountant writing for punter's choice.
Sorry about the length of the post but producing a set of figures as above without verification as to where they came from(authenticity),and how they were derived to me is useless, note at the start the comment about no satisfactory formula this is a guide only.
Hope most can understand the way it is set out and the meaning.
cheers
garyf