mental capacity

[garyf]

As most punters i also found the hardest part was the pshycological part of punting apart from staking and selection criteria obviously.
The quickest way to answer this for my benefit was to look at the s/rate of my system based on 1,000s of bets
I then calculated the longest probable run of outs that s/rate would get.
Then doubled the amount of losses that occured.
I then made sure i had the necessary punting bank set aside to carry me over that particular amount of losing bets.
Eg say i have a system with a 30% s/rate.
All my bets are for $100.00.
Looking at my chart i see the longest run of outs over 10.000 bets is 23.1
Then i double that amount to read 46 losing bets.
So for me a punting bank of $5,000 dollars is required for this system with this s/rate betting $100.00 per bet.
This always holds me in good stead through runs of outs providing of course that the system is profitable to start with.
Hope this helps those aspiring to become pro punters or just those wishing to add to the bank balance or just have a bit of fun.
cheers
garyf.

[stugots]

good post gary & agree that coverage of at least double ones worst anticipated run of outs makes life a little less stressful, bank protection being paramount

a saying from a favourite movie says it all for me - "the key to the game is your capital reserve, if you haven’t got it, you can’t ******** in the tall weeds with the big dogs"

1/2% of bank works for me

[wesmip1]

gary,

Nice Post.

Something to add. Its not the expected run of outs that kills. Its the expected longest run of outs followed by a winner followed by a large amount of losers again. You have taken care of this to a degree by doubling the expected run of outs.

[garyf]

Exactly wes should have stated that.
Good pickup
cheers
garyf.

[Bhagwan]

Here's something that seems to work .
RULES
Target the second Fav in every race.

Wait for 6 outs in a row to occur in chronological order for all venues bolted together.

Then

Start betting at level stakes for 6 outs or a winner.

Then start again.
It takes patience to use this plan or a Bot program to do it for you.
----------------------------------------------
Usually 2.5 x max run of outs can work well for most level stakes plans once the max run of outs is known based on average percentage SR.
Because we have to allow for the worst run of outs then one win then another worst run of outs again.

But .5% of bank works stronger.
It can then be adjusted up or down at the beginning of each new day.
Doing it this way, it smooths out the big swings ,up & down, that can occur in punting.

It is also psychologically more comforting to the punter & the punter tends to put on his value hat when doing it this way rather than targeting really short priced , cant lose horses. (which often do lose ).

If you could make just 1.5% a day that's 10.5% on bank a week.
With a $10,000 bank x .5% = $50 bets, that's $1050 a week tax free.
You would need a $1,500 a week PAYE job,working 40+ hrs a week, taxed at 30% , to make that sort of money.

There! The secret is now out.
The only thing that lets the method down, is the human element.

I have not come across one person yet that can stop themselves at 1.5% Profit a day.
or
Get themselves out of bed for 1.5% a day.

The next question the spoon feeders will ask is...
"How can I make 1.5% a day?" (They really should not be punting)

You could try this Lay betting Plan that works .

RULES
Target races with 11+ runners .
Whole field must have 2+ career starts.
Target horses where the Trainers have a 7% & less win SR.
Price 4.40-99.00 on Betfair.
Bet .5% of Bank level stakes.
You only need 3 successes a day.
Easy!
Then stop for the day (that's the hard part).

It works, but I know that no one will use it , that's why I don't mind sharing these ideas.

[Barny]

Hi Bhagwan,

If you start betting at level stakes for 6 outs or a winner, does that mean a) Whne you strike a winner you wait for the next sequence of 6 losers and start again and b) If you go for a run of 6 losers do you then wait for the next sequence of 6 losers ?

I'm thick, but I can lift heavy things .............

[Bhagwan]

You got it in one Barny.

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

Well I,m having a absolutely crap day at Balaklava with the 1st 6 races losing (multi betting) so I must be due for a win eh.
So Race 7 H 3 - 8 - 11 - 15 ($5 minimum)

None of the r+s Don Scott ratings have run a drum so far.

[darkydog2002]

Holy Molley Bgahwan .
Lost on the win bet (too Low)
Trifecta $119
1st 4 $637.60

Hmm.

Cheers
darky

[partypooper]

gary,

Nice Post.

Something to add. Its not the expected run of outs that kills. Its the expected longest run of outs followed by a winner followed by a large amount of losers again. You have taken care of this to a degree by doubling the expected run of outs.


ABSOLUTELY SPOT ON WES! even a modest run of outs followed by a $1.40c winner followed by a modest run of outs followed by a $1.30 winner, repeated twice will kill ANY bank! not to mention the mental capacity of the bank operator!