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garyf
23rd February 2011, 02:06 PM
Like everyone lets discard the Vegemite ice blocks find something tangible.
As a few know my 1st deletion filter on my final selections is 1-5 pl%
My 2nd elimination rule is the country where my selections (SIRE) is from.
Eg black caviar sire (Bel esprit) (AUSTRALIA).
Hay list sire (statue of liberty) (U.S.A).
Warm love sire (octagonal) (N.Z)
Obviously the placegetters in the lightning sat.
I used this to highlight the three placegetters all were obviously different sires,with different countries.
This particular rule was an elimination criteria from a profitable mechanical System i purchased years ago from punters choice.
The original rules were this.
1) From the midweek sportsman mark of all horses that won their last start by 3.0> lengths or more from Saturdays Melbourne or Sydney meeting.
2) Back this horse at its next start providing the horses sire was australia.
3) Only bet if this horse if not going up in class (great but what criteria to use to ascertain that (p/m,times, +- weight etc etc).
4) Look at races where the winner won by less than <3.0 lengths.
5) including the winner mark off all horse that from the 800-400 its position worsened then from the 400- 200 its position improved again.
Eg 800= (4th) 400= (7th) 200=(5th).
6) all horses must have finished within 3 lengths of the winner not be going up in class and the sire bred in Australia.
Obviously this system was trying to target good city winners eg black caviars margins win and bred in australia then not back horses that finished to far behind it but then target other horses in races where the winning margins weren't as great providing they made ground possibly running good sectionals by losing then gaining ground within three lengths of a winner.
Anyway forget all that crap the main point here is what country the horses sire was from as an elimination filter to a punters final selection.
Its unbelievable with my own ratings and filters how many times i have not backed a loser based on this stat alone.
After calculating my final selections say in sydney country i find that a whopping 70% of my winners are bred in ( australia ) or the (u.s.a) bred anywhere else say (france) (japan) (G.B) my s/rate is half that amount in the top-3.
Here's what i suggest.
Select the state first.
Split into country metro provincial.
With your final selections in place see if their is any advantage in checking where your sires country has any bearing on your s/rate.
The uncomfortable thing that doesn't sit well with me is after doing all the ratings form filters everything is go to have a bet but because the sire is france say not australia it can't win i have no logical explanation other than maybe it's the sire itself and how come when betting vict prov using the same selection criteria is the (USA) sires no good some other country is.
Unfortunately i am no breeding ************ and have no idea why this stat is so relevant based on 1,000s of my selections.
As dr spock from star treck would say (it's illogical) and it is ???.
If some of you could test out some of your selections using the sire criteria would be interested to know it won't work everywhere canberra for example has absolutely no affect but other places do on mine i hope nobody has posted this stat before if so just disregard the above.
cheers
garyf

garyf
23rd February 2011, 02:24 PM
Sorry john didn't get back to you last night .
if you were using my criteria as posted yesterday these are the ratings.
As you know i only bet vict syd canberra.
(cp=5)(cf=5)(t/a=5).
based on the race types i bet on read previous posts todays are this.
CANT RI)4-1-3
R5)2-8-11
SAND R1)3-4-7
R2)1-5-4
R3) 8-5-7
Bit late now you'll get the idea with the race types.
then just set those 3 neurals to 5 leave everything else to 0
cheers
garyf

wesmip1
23rd February 2011, 08:40 PM
gary,

Can you confirm your stats for me. I have not looked at the SIRE location but will in the future. You say 70% of your winners had Australian sires. Are 70% of your picks resulting in having Australian Sires ? Also what is the general market % of the the horses with Australian sires ?
Just asking .. don't have the stat myself but can easily start tracking it (which I might do).

garyf
23rd February 2011, 09:35 PM
Wes.
Thats (aus and usa) combined for (sydney country) only top=3 only.
As i bet only on selections that open<$6.0 or less on course bookies price
i have only recorded those selections sometimes all three will be recorded,
sometimes two sometimes 1.
Betting on my selections that open longer than that results in a
negative SRF statistical relative frequency of 0.93.
Hence as they are in a negative to save time each night didn't
bother to record them looking quickly all selections would be in the
top 4-5 opening fav's but as many drift can't tell the actual market%.
I would imagine as a guess i would probably cover around 70-75%,
of the market with the prices of those selections that are bet on.
I certainly would reccomend if you can having a look at all your
selections to see the country of the sire be warned different states
will deliver different results as will country metro provincial tracks.
If you are a paid member of dynamic race-odds they have an insert
sires column enabling you to go back in time to check previous data.
cheers
garyf.