Q + F System

[axledog]

Looking at class, track and distance and freshness , why not throw a rating in as well, seems commonplace. Very quick and untrialled. So , lets trial it!

Rules are -
1) Buy Sportsman
2) Cancell any race with a first starter
3) Select top two average prizemoney earners (therefore only two qualfiers per race)
4) Last start 21 days or less
5) Must have a place % of 50+ at current days course
6) Must have a place % of 50+ at current days distance
7) Must be within 2 or less points of zipform toprater
8) If both selections qualify then cancell race
Takes about 30 seconds per race when youve done it a couple of times.
But is quick and friendly profitable ? Lets find out!

[axledog]

Caulfield
rc 1 # 3
rc 3 # 1
rc 4 # 1
rc 5 # 8
rc 6 # 6
rc 7 # 1

Rosehill
rc 3 # 1

Eagle Farm
rc 5 # 1
rc 6 # 2

Morphetville Park
rc 4 # 7
rc 5 # 4

[darkydog2002]

Good luck axledog.Looks promising.

Can I add a suggestion from Malcolms research .
Rather than the top 2 Av Prizemoney you might like to test against the top 2 PLACE % horses.
I,d keep records for both and compare after a 100 bet sequence.


Cheers
darky

[Dale]

Or for something a bit out of the box why not the two highest prizemoney raced for horses from all horses last 3 or 4 starts.

Id try that and drop the zipform requirement all together.

Just a thought.

[darkydog2002]

Axledog.
On your Sportsman chart how many of these were (L) leaders or (H ) Race handy - on pace.

Cheers
darky

[axledog]

thanks guys,
Dale , understand exactly about prizemoney stat , is there anywhere i could obtain this easily ?
DD , mate been working hard , but kept sportsman and will work out and keep records for both , might keep some study in this because i know you like place betting and using just NSWtab prices the system hit 7/10 (1 scr) and achieved 12.1 units (+2.1). Maybe just hit and miss but worthwhile tinkering. (win was only 3/10 and 5.1 units (-4.9)

[darkydog2002]

Axledog,
Much prefer the win bet myself but if there,s a profitable place bet I,m happy there too.
If it was my method I,d much prefer leaders and on pace runners than Backmarkers

Its great fun developing a winning system isn,t it?

Cheers
darky

[Dale]

Dale , understand exactly about prizemoney stat , is there anywhere i could obtain this easily ?




Axledog try this one

http://formguide.cyberhorse.com.au/index.php/Form/view-form.html

You have to sort through the field yourself of course but its easy to read and you can work out a race very quickly,it lists the last 10 runs which is handy.


Good luck

[axledog]

Thanks Dale , will trial that this weekend.
DD , ran your trial of top place% and results were still positive
for the place but a loss on the win.
win=3/9 loss 2.6
place 6/9 plus 1.3
Like you said , ill run for 100 or so selections and see if a result
can be found with either win or place, using both methods.
Havent used your (L) or (h) variable yet , just want to know what
happens with what i already have.
Just seen Garys post (percentages) and might apply more rules after
this series of 100 selections has ended.

[axledog]

Selections for Top Prizemoney

SR 5-1
BR 6-1
AR 1-1
AR 2-1
AR 5-1
AR 6-1
AR 8-4
WR 2-1 (ASCOT) <NTD>
WR 5-1
WR 7-14

hmmm.... is that a pattern i see? Maybe using this variable will always throw up toppies , will be interested to see what happens here!

[axledog]

Selections for Top Place%

MR 2-6
MR 8-7
BR 3-4
BR 5-8
BR 7-5
AR 1-1
AR 6-6
WR 5-1 (ASCOT)

DD , A couple of races have minimal runners to require a third
place divvie. Do i still count these in my selections for place
stats or not record the race at all for place but win only?

[darkydog2002]

Hi Axledog,
Win only.
Cheers
darky

[darkydog2002]

Axledog,
The refinements I came up with gave me
Flemington
Race 4 H 5 2nd @5.75/1
W.Farm
Race 1 H 3 2nd@1.1/1
Doomben
Race 3 H 11 2nd@1.2/1
Morphetville
Race 7 H 2 +3 Won $4.80/2nd@ 4.25/1

Cheers
darky

[axledog]

After 1 months betting , using LIVE bets , i have recorded 6 outcomes. Using the original system for win and place , using DD top place % as an alternate rule to p/m and a system using both rules combined. Results follow -

Prizemoney Rule -
Win - 12/48 (25%) Loss 12.2 units
Plac - 38/48 (79%) Profit 2.4 units

Place % Rule -
Win - 17/56 (30%) Loss 4.2 units
Plac - 38/56 (67%) Profit 3.8 Units

Both rules combined -
Win - 7/20 (35%) Profit 0.5 units
Plac - 15/20 (75%) Profit 3.8 units

Unflattering i know , but not a bad base set of rules to begin a system. think of the combo, backing place only and you end up with 19% in front. DD , combine with your filters (how are these going by the way?) and we might
improve somewhat. Will take it to 100 selections as advised and put up new results.

[axledog]

Tomorrows selections -

WA 4-3 p/m
WA 6-11 com
WA 7-13 p/m
SR 2-1 com
SR 4-1 com
SR 5-8 place
SR 6-2 p/m
SR 7-1 p/m
SR 9-1 p/m
MR 3-2 com
MR 7-9 p/m
BR 2-9 place
BR 5-5 place
BR 7-7 place
BR 8-2 p/m
BR 8-5 place
AR 3-1 com