SR% analysis

[Barny]

I'm looking at the win SR of horses.

Can software that some of you have, analyse the Strike Rate of horses after they have achieved lets say a 35% SR ?

eg: horse A has a SR% of 35 % after 13 starts ..... what happens to it after that ?

cheers

[wesmip1]

Yes I can do it quite easily.

Any horse which had a 35% strike rate at the race resulted in 6577 selections for 1215 winners returning 5781.10 at unitab prices.

Of course you might want different information to provided but you didn't state what you wanted. If you want something more let me know.

Good Luck

[wesmip1]

In case you wanted to know what place they ran:

Place + count of how many finished at that position.


Note 44,55 and 77 are special codes I record for horses who didn't leave barriers, fell and failed to finish. I can't remember which is which right now.

<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>1</TD><TD>1216</TD></TR><TR><TD>2</TD><TD>869</TD></TR><TR><TD>3</TD><TD>737</TD></TR><TR><TD>4</TD><TD>683</TD></TR><TR><TD>5</TD><TD>577</TD></TR><TR><TD>6</TD><TD>516</TD></TR><TR><TD>7</TD><TD>437</TD></TR><TR><TD>8</TD><TD>361</TD></TR><TR><TD>9</TD><TD>318</TD></TR><TR><TD>10</TD><TD>290</TD></TR><TR><TD>11</TD><TD>201</TD></TR><TR><TD>12</TD><TD>144</TD></TR><TR><TD>13</TD><TD>94</TD></TR><TR><TD>14</TD><TD>50</TD></TR><TR><TD>15</TD><TD>37</TD></TR><TR><TD>16</TD><TD>24</TD></TR><TR><TD>17</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>18</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>21</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR><TD>44</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR><TD>55</TD><TD>9</TD></TR><TR><TD>77</TD><TD>6</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Barny]

Thanks wesmip1, I'm using a horses winning % as the basis of a system.

It will go something like this:

1) A predetermined % Win SR must have been currently achieved or will be achieved if the horse won this race.
2) I'm looking for a minimum number of wins, it'll be more than three I'm guessing, might even be up to seven.
3) I'll rule out 2 y/o's & 2-1/2 y/o's
4) I'll rule out horses older than 5-1/2
5) I'm looking for this SR to hold up over recent campaigns.
6) It does not have to have won this time up.
7) I'm NOT looking for a Black Caviar, I'm looking for a horse winning it's share of races, some in the Metro, preferably an interstater or from NZ.
8) A minimum price of probably $5
9) Study of volumes of form guides show starts around 6 or 7 plus up to nearly 20 is the range where the bets are to be had.

I've "followed" this selection method for many a year and will start to punt it.

cheers and thanks Wesmip1.