another stat I would like

[gunny72]

Thanks for those positive suggestions regarding days since last start. The database in systembuilder is very helpful for other stats but not dls.

Another stat that has a lot of confusion about it is number of starts from a spell of winners. Can anyone provide reasonable info on this, preferably for br,sr,mr,ar? e.g.

previous starts
from spell proportion of runners win % of runners
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Gunny72

[darkydog2002]

A couple of years ago I put the same question to warren Block (Australias handicapping guru).
The answer was that each horse was a individual in that area and one needed to go into that when profiling that individual horse.

Cheers
darky

[Vortech]

What is your email address? I'll send you some data I have

Cheers

[Dale]

A couple of years ago I put the same question to warren Block (Australias handicapping guru).
The answer was that each horse was a individual in that area and one needed to go into that when profiling that individual horse.

Cheers
darky

With that line of thinking no stat at all would have relevence as each horse is an individual and you need to do the form.

I would have told him where to stick his advice.

[darkydog2002]

Oh I couldn,t do that as I have too much respect for the man and his handicapping skills.
Most of the best professional punters in Australia learnt their craft under Warrens guidance.
At the time my thoughts were 3 - 5 starts after a spell to get peak fitness and then a downhill run until the spelling paddock once again.
But once again the Master came to the fore in that some horses reach peak fitness early and others take longer.Quite logical when I thought about it.

Cheers
darky

[Dale]

Yes logical.

But not helpful when try to assertain what happens in the majority of cases.


If you are trying to put together a list of super filters/maxims and you ruled out all horses that are resuming as a matter of principle and simplification you would need to base that decision on what happens the majority of times.

[darkydog2002]

Hi again Dale,
As you said earlier one needs to do the form.

Fortunately for us the Proffessional handicappers have done it for us and is reflected in the bookies OPENING market, and the WEIGHT range the official race club handicappers give the best horses.

i.e 55KG + represent 36.5 % of horses BUT provide 50.6 % of winners.

Market Forces then take over re price one is likely to get or accept.
The beauty of good paid and unpaid sevices is that give us their opinion on what is a fair price to accept.and everyone of them will have a opinion of that.
The trick is to find one that suits.

Academically its a good idea to recheck your selections re runs in to reach peak fitness.
For me I accept that Warren has already done that in his profile of a particular horse.

Cheers
darky