Questioning the Don Scott approach

[gunny72]

Is there any point using the Don Scott approach to handicapping anymore? Firstly, as many use this approach value is very hard to find, but more significantly, the framers of the ratings based handicaps essentially use this approach so the horses would most likely be handicapped in accord with the DS method.

I am convinced that to win it is essential to get over the odds and to do this one has to look outside the square, betting on horses others have overlooked. Is it time to examine time-weight again?

[moeee]

If you going to follow the same path as many others, then you must be capable of doing it better , or you shall lose.

The only way to beat them is to find a path that is not being followed, but is in fact shorter.
The problem is that after a hundred years or whatever, most paths have been explored.

An area that could work is to limit your studies to finding longshot winners.
Most Punters try to back the winner of the Race and that is usually amongst the Favoured Runners, and the Price will often be pretty much an accurate reflection of the Chance of Winning.
But of the roughies, the Odds are only approximate, sometimes VERY approximate.
Amongst these roughies are to be found Overlays.

[lomaca]

Is there any point using the Don Scott approach to handicapping anymore? Firstly, as many use this approach value is very hard to find, but more significantly, the framers of the ratings based handicaps essentially use this approach so the horses would most likely be handicapped in accord with the DS method.

I am convinced that to win it is essential to get over the odds and to do this one has to look outside the square, betting on horses others have overlooked. Is it time to examine time-weight again?There is nothing wrong with DS's approach, even today.

And as long as PT Barnham's maxim holds true, and I see no sign of it being proven wrong, astute punters will WIN.

There are even free DSct ratings given out, but does the average punter take any notice or analyse them?

No he does not.

But each to his own beliefs.

Good luck

[Shaun]

I am confused, if any of you think you are following a Don Scott method that made and lost him a fortune you are sadly mistaken.


I read his books and can say that racing has changed in such was regarding weight and class that he would have to create a whole new idea for today's racing.

[lomaca]

I am confused, if any of you think you are following a Don Scott method that made and lost him a fortune you are sadly mistaken.


I read his books and can say that racing has changed in such was regarding weight and class that he would have to create a whole new idea for today's racing.Shaun
You may have read his books but not followed what happened to him and his punting.

And may I pray, you tell us what changed?

[Shaun]

The minimum weight was raised, this was a key element in working out his weight ratings, as you would have noticed most of the lower class races have changed from what was around in his day.

I am not saying you can adapt his method but is today's Don Scott ratings as good as they were in his day, maybe or maybe not.

[lomaca]

The minimum weight was raised,
I can't see the relevance.


I am not saying you can adapt his method but is today's Don Scott ratings as good as they were in his day, maybe or maybe not.The oldest and most successful (POI) purveyor of racing info is still happily using his weight and (modified) class ratings, and while my opinion doesn't matter, so am I, and the bank balance speaks for itself.

[wesmip1]

Here are some interesting things usign DS ratings and R&S.

If you bet the DS highest rating selection you lose 16% on unitab.

If you bet any horse that were priced higher then the rated price you lose 20%.
If you bet any horse that are at least double overlays you get a los of 18%.

If you took the highest DS Rating selection and those that were overlays you get a 15% loss.

All figures are unitab.

The DS Rating system obviously needs some filters for it to be proftiable.

[The Ocho]

Or maybe you lay some of them (using filters) :)

[stugots]

got a mate who only backs lucky number 7 - last time i asked him he reckons he was only doing 15-20%...

[lomaca]

"DS highest rating selection you lose 16% on unitab"

Ok, so lets deduct the 14% (being generous) for Unitab, we lose 2%.

I do not know how much better Betfair prices are but lets say better by 4%.

Now we are up by 2%, BUT remember we are betting on every race!

Deduct the Max 5% for Betfair and we lose 3% betting on every race!!!

Suddenly 3% doesn't sound too bad does it?
And I'm being generous here with the difference in prices obtained.

I'm yet to see any rating, paid for or not, or selection method, that will return a profit by betting on every race every day every meeting!

Now, if a punter cannot find some races that he/she can leave out,
(filters) then that punter had better find an other hobby.

Basket weaving sounds nice.

[Bhagwan]

Ran Lucky 7 approach through Online System Builder

RULES
No.7 only
1-9 runners.
All prices

RESULT
7% SR
-42% LOT

Even targeting races with 7 runners & less had a terrible
SR of 8% & -45% LOT which tells you that throwing a dart in such field would produce 14%SR

On the positive side , it makes for a brilliant Lay plan.
Betting 1/15th of Bank
Betting Fixed Liability.

LAY plan rules
Targeting No.7 in races with 1-9 runners , keeps the Lay price nice & low.
Lay bet the lot on Betfair at .5% of bank, for a profit of approx 20%+ POT

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan.

Isn't the OSB results for Saturday only and for the four major tracks?

Out of interest I had a look at all tracks for last Sat. There were a few accidents for the Lucky 7 lay plan so I did not record the results as it would have been a losing day.

However I decided to look at No.1 for races of 9 and less starters, again for all tracks.

On Sat there were 33 races for 4 accidents for a NSW TAB liability of $11.50. Because the fields are small it would be surprising if the difference between TAB and Betfair prices are great, so laying them on Betfair would have most likely produced a good profit.

I also looked at yesterday's qualifying races. There were 10 of them for only 1 accident for a TAB liability of $2.

Interesting...

[michaelg]

Hi, Bhagwan.

Isn't the OSB results for Saturday only and also only for the four major tracks?

Out of interest I had a look at all tracks for last Sat. There were a few accidents for the Lucky 7 lay plan so I did not record the results as it would have been a losing day.

However I decided to look at No.1 for races of 9 and less starters, again for all tracks.

On Sat there were 33 races for 4 accidents for a NSW TAB liability of $11.50. Because the fields are small it would be surprising if the difference between TAB and Betfair prices are great, so laying them on Betfair would have most likely produced a good profit.

I also looked at yesterday's qualifying races. There were 10 of them for only 1 accident for a TAB liability of $2.

Interesting...

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for sharing those findings Michael,

I ran that No.1 idea through the OSBuilder
It works off Sat Metro only for last 2.5yrs
But it is a strong starting point for any system idea.

It resulted in a
TAB No.1
21% SR
-25% LOT

The Laying result is far stronger targeting
TAB No.7
8% SR
-43% LOT

Using TAB prices

[wesmip1]

"DS highest rating selection you lose 16% on unitab"

Ok, so lets deduct the 14% (being generous) for Unitab, we lose 2%.

I do not know how much better Betfair prices are but lets say better by 4%.

Now we are up by 2%, BUT remember we are betting on every race!

Deduct the Max 5% for Betfair and we lose 3% betting on every race!!!

Suddenly 3% doesn't sound too bad does it?
And I'm being generous here with the difference in prices obtained.

I'm yet to see any rating, paid for or not, or selection method, that will return a profit by betting on every race every day every meeting!

Now, if a punter cannot find some races that he/she can leave out,
(filters) then that punter had better find an other hobby.

Basket weaving sounds nice.
I hate making assumptions on what the betfair price will be so here are the real figures. If you used betfair and I will assume worst commission ate of 5% , you would get a 1.4% loss.

Assuming you removed all those starting in barriers 1-4 you get a 2.6% profit.
Or maybe you only bet on those which are top unitab rating and you get a 2.4% profit.
Or maybe those who have had 20 or less career starts for a profit of 1.7%.

Combine the top 2 (barrier 5 or wider + top unitab rating) and you get a 4.4% profit. My data only goes back 5 months for DS so you get approx 300 bets a month with these filters.

[Dale]

I'm yet to see any rating, paid for or not, or selection method, that will return a profit by betting on every race every day every meeting!

Now, if a punter cannot find some races that he/she can leave out,
(filters) then that punter had better find an other hobby.

.


Exactly,every race every day every meeting!,nah,you need to be smarter.

[Dale]

As for the Don Scott ratings,well nothing wrong with them but the way people use them at the expense of other worthy rating methods just shows there is a ******** of a lot of hype surrounding the name.

Might as well call them the Jesus Christ ratings.

[Bhagwan]

When the Bookies of the day where coping the receiving end of Done Scotts successes.
Pulled 100's of thousands from them.

I dont think the Bookies thought they where Jesus Christ ratings maybe more in

line with the other fellow because it certainly created merry ******** for the Bookies.

[gunny72]

I read the DS books in the early 1980s and followed his method for a while but eventually found that I achieved better results by dropping his class weight analysis and just use his bonuses for fitness and consistency which I have adapted and still use today although the value has gone there in the past few years too.

[wesmip1]

TAB's now have lots of ratings sitting in there on th boards which means even the avg punter has some idea of which horse should be a good prospect.

There are less of the mindless punters out there that would bet their fav jockey, trainer, etc.

The avg punter is more educated these days so you need to be even more educated in order to beat them.

[marksto2]

Ran Lucky 7 approach through Online System Builder

RULES
No.7 only
1-9 runners.
All prices

RESULT
7% SR
-42% LOT

Even targeting races with 7 runners & less had a terrible
SR of 8% & -45% LOT which tells you that throwing a dart in such field would produce 14%SR

On the positive side , it makes for a brilliant Lay plan.
Betting 1/15th of Bank
Betting Fixed Liability.

LAY plan rules
Targeting No.7 in races with 1-9 runners , keeps the Lay price nice & low.
Lay bet the lot on Betfair at .5% of bank, for a profit of approx 20%+ POT

Hi Bhagwan,

I really think some of your posts and ideas are fantastic. Out of interest in regards to the LAY plan rules above.

How many races was this tested on? Should you set a maximum price liability of say $10?

Please let us know and thanks!

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for the kind words Mark.

You know you can test all this yourself using
Online System Builder (Free to join)

Results for
TAB No.7
Runners 1-9

Price 1.00-9.90
428 selections
15% SR
-26% LOT

Using price...
1.00-20.00
705 selections
11% SR
-32% LOT

Using price ...
7.50-20.00
403 selections
5% SR
-40% LOT

All over 2.5 yrs.
Sat Metro only

[marksto2]

Thank you for sharing this. Whats interesting is this site now says registrations disabled!

I would suggest this method may work just as well midweek aswell.

Ideally it would be good to find the selections each day and then just put the lay bets on SP at a liability limit and maximum odds.

Not sure what the profit would be in the above case given it's not flat stake.

Cheers again,

[Bhagwan]

They are currently changing servers & will be operational as normal in several days, according to their site news.
Registration will be free.

[Ricardo48]

I emailed the owner of the online system builder the other day and was told he was closing the site down?

[stugots]

yeh there was a post by the owner on here somewhere stating it would be closed down due to lack of interest etc

[The Ocho]

Yeah, it's under the thread called on line system builder (funnily enough :) )

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=21149

[marksto2]

That's a shame because I thought there would have been great interest.

[darkydog2002]

Did they ever advertise it nationally.?

I ask as I only heard about it here.
Cheers
darky

[Bhagwan]

That's a shame.
It gave punters the chance to have a hands on experience of a data base, that can be interrogative, to exploit a possible edge.

I goes back to my theory that you could post the most successful system ever, for free & still the majority will either ignore it or change it so that it does not perform, then say the system is no good.

I would have thought that he would have been inundated with new free members , but it also supports my other theory that punters generally don't like sharing any information that they deem valuable.

Even if it was valuable, the next punter is going to change the rules anyway. so that it is becomes different again anyway.

There was this system I posted on another site .
It was for targeting Horses with the warning that its not to be used on Dogs because it will fail.
Guess what? , a reader runs with the idea using real money, on the Dogs & not the Horses .then claimed the method does not work?
I asked why he chose to do that.
He claimed that he felt it should not make any difference , based on zero past data?
What can I say.

That's why I don't mind sharing any of our findings, because it will be changed anyway.
I guess you could call that a 1.01 surety tip that could be applied to the majority of punters.

[Bhagwan]

Here is another interactive data base site ..

(Google ) Adrian Massey.

[Ricardo48]

That is a very in depth site, pity it is only for U.K. racing :(

[Mark]

That's a shame.

I goes back to my theory that you could post the most successful system ever, for free & still the majority will either ignore it or change it so that it does not perform, then say the system is no good.



Spot on Bhagwan. I have posted several, as you and no doubt others have, and it makes not one bit of difference.