Debunking another myth....2000m+ favs

[wesmip1]

Here is just something quick.

Most people think the shorter the race the more chance plays a part in the result. But is this true as far as a profit stand point?

Because of this belief, people tend to back fav's in the 1600m+ races to a very short price because the fav should win more often as its got a longer run to show its class.

Looking at it quickly if you layed every fav at or under $3 in < 1600m races you end up losing 213 units. If you were to lay favs in 1800m+ events you get a profit of 3 units. Lay favs in 2000m+ events and you get a 14 unit profit.

Why ? My belief is pace affects these races more then anything else. If the fav does not get a pace that suits it then it is going to find trouble. And also because people think favs should get up due to their class over longer races the price is too short. Further to this we don't have a lot of races 2000m+ in this country and the form at this distance is usually justified by form at a shorter distance (1600m - 1800m).

I would like to hear others opinions on it.

[jose]

Wes, I have noticed much the same and stopped betting in races >1600m ages ago.
Another thing I have noticed, albeit with no firm figures to back it up, is that 2.5, 3, and 4kg apprentices have a woeful record in races >1600m. This is because they lack pace and timing judgement IMHO.
Having said that if you can spot a good young kid early enough there is money to be made from them. A case in point is one certain young bloke in Brisbane, although everyone seems to be on to him now, worst luck.

[The Ocho]

wesmip1, If you lose 213 units backing how come you only make 3 or 14 units laying. Shouldn't the lay bets for the 1600+ races be closer to 213 units?

[stugots]

Wes, I have noticed much the same and stopped betting in races >1600m ages ago.
Another thing I have noticed, albeit with no firm figures to back it up, is that 2.5, 3, and 4kg apprentices have a woeful record in races >1600m. This is because they lack pace and timing judgement IMHO.
Having said that if you can spot a good young kid early enough there is money to be made from them. A case in point is one certain young bloke in Brisbane, although everyone seems to be on to him now, worst luck.


& you could add that many apprentices simply are not physically up to riding out a strong distance race

[wesmip1]

wesmip1, If you lose 213 units backing how come you only make 3 or 14 units laying. Shouldn't the lay bets for the 1600+ races be closer to 213 units?
I think you read that wrong. You lose laying not backing. And backing you lose as well as there is a 5% commission.

Just because a system loses laying does not mean its good backing (and vice versa).

Back t original post you lose 213 laying under 1600m and you win laying aboe 2000m (favs)

[wesmip1]

[QUOTE=jose]Another thing I have noticed, albeit with no firm figures to back it up, is that 2.5, 3, and 4kg apprentices have a woeful record in races >1600m. This is because they lack pace and timing judgement IMHO.
QUOTE]

Checked it out :

I set the limit at $20 betfair lay price and 2000m+. It had 209 bets for a 37 unit profit. The strike rate was 11%. This is laying them.

[garyf]

Wes.
Apart from the distance factor i also believe the field size has a bearing on the pace of the races.


In larger fields the horses drawn middle to outside barriers go forward trying to slot in thus forcing the inside ones to kick up and hold.

This ensures a good (AES) this is a generalization only from sitting here 7 days a week watching them on sky channel horses patterns are all different.

Obviously the smaller fields where horses can lob straight into a position will ensure a slower (AES).

If you get a chance could you put the figures into field sizes.

I place mine this way.

less than <8 (small)
8-14(medium)
more than 14>(large).

Any break up will do just interested to see if any anomalies or not.

cheers
garyf

[garyf]

Medium =(8-13) was watching a race while posting

[jose]

May be something there Wes.

[wesmip1]

This is laying apprentices with 2.,5 kilos or more over 2000m or more with a maximum lay price of $20

<8 = 13 selections = 4 profit
8-13 = 134 selectiosn = -1 units loss
14+ = 62 selections = 34 unit profit

Seems the 14+ field is where most of the profit came from. Not many selections though.