View Full Version : Doggone it.
moeee
16th March 2011, 06:35 PM
BALLARAT Race 4
4 BONEGILLA FLASH $3.1
7 RAYA RIOT $6.5
2 WARRALONGA AMORE $6.5
8 SINBAD'S ANGEL $7.3
3 MAKE BELIEVE $12
6 PURE CITY $15
9 SHAUNY BADTOOTH $20
1 LIMBURG GOLD $30
I'll be backing the Biggest Overlay from the top 4 selections, if there are any that is.
$10 on the top selection if its the one.
moeee
16th March 2011, 08:07 PM
7 REALLY ELITE $1.8
3 HARISON BALE $11.2
4 PEDRA BRANCA $11.2
2 VESZPREMI $13
8 ELITE APPLE $14
5 RONCHI $21
1 LOADED MISSILE $22
6 VINCENT CHASE $24
Top selection leads all the way , but will be too short for me, so I'll take Exotics.
7 - 3,4,2,8 - 3,4,2,8 for $4 worth
7 - 3,4 - 3,4,2,8 - 3,4,2,8 for $2 worth
woof43
17th March 2011, 08:34 PM
Winning Style Box 1st Split Rating
BR 1 $76.92
BR 2 $8.85
BR 3 $37.66
VR 4 $7.05
FR 5 $7.70
BR 6 $46.51
FR 7 $2.55
FR 8 $6.19
#1 same box as last week and about the same price, but this time the expected leader #7 doesn't have the 2nd sectionals to match last weeks 20/1 winner.
It looks like the 3 inside dogs should have a good go at any of the leading dogs in this race I have the #2 on top at the 3.30 mark, with the #1 at 5.80 and the #3 at 9.70 all the rest would be over 12.00
moeee
18th March 2011, 07:00 PM
7 KALDEN ATHENA $2
1 PEDRO'S FINEST $2.7
8 SHANLYN ROYAL $13.2
2 CARLINFORD STEWY $50
3 MAGIC FOR IRENE $60
5 SMALL PRESENCE $150
9 MIDORI STORM $350
6 BLAME BRODIE $450
First 4 for $3 worth
7,1 - 7,1 - 8 - 2,3
moeee
19th March 2011, 10:39 AM
1 ELLA PATCHE $3.1
2 BOO WEEKLEY $4.7
8 DESTRUCTINATOR $6.3
5 MAJOR MONOGRAM $10
4 DR. FLOJOE $12
7 SEDUCTABLE $20
6 MIGHTY MELANIE $30
3 WHY NOT NICK $33
FlexiTrifecta for $2 worth
1,2 - 1,2,8 - 1,2,8,5,4
moeee
19th March 2011, 12:32 PM
2 PENTHOUSE $3.1
8 SOUTHWOOD BARGE $6.7
4 MAGIC RUBBLE $8.3
5 CHLOE'S GEM $10
3 LIESEL $10.2
6 HORNBLOWER $12
1 DEMON JIM $14
7 HAFREN BALE $15
moeee
19th March 2011, 02:43 PM
2 LEKTRA EXPRESS $3.2
4 UNLOCK THE CODE $5.9
7 OUR TOYMAN $6
1 BRONTE'S BEST $9
5 CRIME WAVE $11
6 BLUE JUICE $16
8 LARA'S ROCK $18
3 HIPPY CHIC $30
woof43
19th March 2011, 03:33 PM
Moeee you missed this race and I bet it was on purpose, anyway here are my thoughts.
First probs
101 these types of races is to find the leaders.
Box 1st Split Rating
1 $115.61
2 $22.25
3 $2.96
9 $23.78
5 $67.11
6 $16.98
7 $9.49
8 $2.58
The #8 should get a nice run to the first as the #7 will push inside, but it has very slow second sectionals, which means it needs interference to happen behind it at the first turn. #3 has a habit of dwelling at the start it needs to get a nice start if it does it may hold the #8 out and should go close to winning, only other dogs that have shown they can run the track and distance are the #2 who seems to be begin slow most times its raced here and the #5 It will jump slow and go to the rails it needs a clear run to be able to show its best second sectional.
I have it the #3, #2 #5 and #8 as the most likely best prices for the 3 & 2 have been snapped up on the fixed odss markets that have been available
moeee
19th March 2011, 04:20 PM
1 ALLEN HERTZ $3.3
5 HAYDER BALE $3.3
3 DELAWNEY STREET $6.8
2 WHAT SIZE $10
7 TOTAL REBELLION $12
4 OROTON PRINCE $33
8 BLACK IMPOSER $40
6 MOZZIE GALORE $80
Flexi4 for $2
1,5 - 1,5,3 - 1,5,3,2,7 - 1,5,3,2,7
moeee
19th March 2011, 04:28 PM
Moeee you missed this race and I bet it was on purpose,
Yes Woof43, you right.
I'm trying to cut down on the Number of Races I handicap.
I had my look at what may be the leaders, and it is #3.
Strangely, The Watchdog can't seem to find a place in the First 4 for it!!
I've managed a bit of a fightback from where I lost over $400 in the last few months after winning it the few months before.
I have won half of it back, but more importantly, have settled into the groove of good handicapping, with some pretty good wagering lately.
woof43
19th March 2011, 04:37 PM
Box 1st Split Rating
1 $5.86
2 $7.00
3 $5.99
4 $8.59
5 $15.17
6 $11.68
7 $6.07
8 $11.53
Their even out of the boxes, #1 is poorly drawn, #8 is poorly drawn #3 wants off the track I feel #6 & #7 want to push to the rails. To me the #2 would be odds on in this event other than being drawn outside the #1.
woof43
19th March 2011, 04:48 PM
I've managed a bit of a fightback from where I lost over $400 in the last few months after winning it the few months before.
I have won half of it back, but more importantly, have settled into the groove of good handicapping, with some pretty good wagering lately.
You may have been caught up in the distractions elsewhere, but at least you learn,t a lesson of sorts, as we all do when things go to pieces.
Notice the fixed price of southwood barge looks like a dog to lay notice you had it at long odds too
moeee
19th March 2011, 06:02 PM
Notice the fixed price of southwood barge looks like a dog to lay notice you had it at long odds too
I simply eliminated the Healesville Form.
But that still left a few Excellent wins at Ballarat over the 450m.
What concerns me the most is that it has had numerous runs, yet hasn't tackled the City Tracks.
You would think if it were good enough, it would have ran by now.
If I had the willpower, this Race would be a look and learn event only.
moeee
19th March 2011, 06:30 PM
2 MALTA $2.7
1 DAINTREE LOVER $5.6
8 OKIE BALE $7.7
7 FENNEL BALE $8.5
5 SAND BURNER $10
3 BEE GEE MAC $12
4 TIGER'S REBEL $33
moeee
19th March 2011, 07:39 PM
7 HELLA GOOD $2.7
8 WEEKEND RUSH $5
6 SEE YOU LATTE $5.6
1 FANTASY PHOENIX $10
2 LEKTRA BOB $14
5 ENEVER $20
3 IN THE MONEY $33
woof43
19th March 2011, 07:39 PM
Winning Style Box 1st Split Rating
FR 1 $3.80
FR 2 $2.67
FR 3 $70.72
BR 5 $68.77
FR 6 $4.85
BR 7 $63.94
FR 8 $8.97
This is a race of many scenarios, the 4 leaders have to be in the box seat to really do any good.
So that raises a number of scenarios,
Scenario A) if the #1 holds the lead to the first, it would be expected then the #2 has missed the start or not interfered with the #1, if that happens I would think there is only 1 other dog to run it down and that is the #7 and both #6 & #8 have been hung out to dry.
Scenario B) If the #6 leads both the inside dogs are gone, again this leads way for the #7 to have a last crack at the leader and #8 again is hung out to dry.
Scenario C) If #8 cuts across the 7 & #6 at the start, leaves the #1 you would expect to be leading with the #2 and the #5 will have a crack at both of them down the centre of the track.
I feel the early fixed odds of 3.00 the #6 is too short, and the others are quite reasonable
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