Help Please

[New punter]

Hi All,<O:p</O:p

I am relatively new to the “punt” and have read or been exposed to some systems be more knowledge people on the subject than I. <O:p</O:p


Whilst I understand that retro fitting systems in not an accurate indication of future performance, I was hoping that some of you on this forum may be able to give me an indication of how the enclosed systems would have performed and if it is worth pursuing.<O:p</O:p


I understand these are not new, however I would like to export the data from an electronic form guide provider and automate the selections on a daily basis with a macro (any help on how to do this would be much appreciated). <O:p


Systems:<O:p</O:p

Last Start Winner:<O:p

Rules:<O:p</O:p

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1) Horse was last start winner by more than 2.5 Lengths<O:p</O:p


2) Horse must be within 200M distance range up or down from last start<O:p</O:p

3) Horse must be in top 5 AVE Prize money earners in the race<O:p

4) Horse must Have won or been placed at half of its starts over today’s track conditions.<O:p

5) Horse must have won or been placed at half of its starts over today’s course<O:p</O:p

6) Horse must be drawn inside barrier 12<O:p</O:p



30% System<O:p</O:p

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1)Horse must have had a minimum of 10 starts<O:p</O:p

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2)Horse must have won 30%+ of its race starts<O:p</O:p


3)Horse must have been placed last start <O:p

4)Horse must be in the same class or lesser class than last start<O:p</O:p

5)Horse must have won over today’s course & distance<O:p</O:p

6)Horse must have won in today’s going<O:p</O:p

7)If more than 3 qualifiers race is eliminated<O:p</O:p


Roughies<O:p</O:p


1)Horse must be only runner in the race first up<O:p</O:p


Thanks in advance for your assistance, and I look forward to making valuable contributions on this forum as my knowledge and expertise increases.<O:p</O:p

[Barny]

Helloooo new Punter. I don't have a database that I can run your systems through but I'd imagine that the loss on each would be around 15% because you're using pretty standard filters.

I'll have a stab and say the last start winner system would be close to a 20% loss, the 30% system just over 10% loss and the first upper about 10% loss too. The track and distance scenario's reduce your profit.

I've just spent the last month or so reading almost every post on here ..... enlightning it was ! It's worth doing !

Good luck, I hope someone comes forward and runs your systems for you.

[enjay]

Welcome New Punter.
Your first idea I have run back to the start of 2010 and the results are as follows. :-

Meetings considered : 2642
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 39.0%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 66.0%
Average Win Dividend : $2.06
Average Plc Dividend : $1.36

WIN
Races Bet: 157
Races Won: 62
S.R./Race: 39.5%
Outlay($): 159.00
Return : 127.60
$ Profit : -31.40
% P.O.T. : -19.7%

Not worth going back any further.

Enjay

[TheSchmile]

Hi New Punter,

Thanks for sharing your ideas and good luck on your punting adventure!!

Some of the initial system rules you have are sound, for instance starting at horses with a 30% strike rate will ensure that you are backing horses that can win and have proven so in the past.

Look for when these horses are likely to peak. Some perform first-up and then go backwards in their preparation, others need 3 or 4 runs to reach peak fitness.

Winning margin of 2.5 lengths
This can be a result of many factors:
- A super fast pace upfront, with the winning horse settling near the rear and sailing past with ease as the rest of the field capitulated.
- A heavy track with the winning horse the only one to really handle it etc.

You need to ascertain whether the horse can repeat the effort. E.g. did it carry 52kg and is now up 6 kilos to 58kg? Is the horse consistent? Have they now put an apprentice on after a senior jockey rode last start? Was this win out of character?
These and many other factors come into play. Easy right......

Track and Distance
I like to back horses that are coming back to their preferred track and/or distance after putting in what appears to be a lacklustre performance elsewhere, thus trying to gain some value.

Case in Point, SHOCKING in the Australian Cup 2 weeks ago.
Ran 2 seemingly ordinary races at Caulfield, before returning to his favourite track Flemington, with it's long straight and wider cambers. Improved lengths and lengths and this Melbourne Cup winner, who had won over 1600m in the Spring at the same track, went off at over $8 and duly got the chocolates. Having a little faith can reap rewards.

Don't expect horses to be robots
Ever woken up and been in a terrible mood all day and not performed to your best (most Mondays - ha ha) this happens to horses. They have bad days, simple as that. In saying that, jockeys have bad days also, but don't get me started .....


Trainer jockey combos
There are some potent combinations about that just about break even or make a profit backing all selections:
Nash Rawiller/Gai Waterhouse
Peter Moody/Luke Nolen
Paul Harvey/Lyndsay Smith
Joe Pride/Hugh Bowman

In conclusion, GENERALLY, the harder you work and the more selective you are, the luckier/richer you will get. There's literally a million ways to assess the form and for me there's no greater thrill than deciphering a race to perfection and watching it all play out as predicted.

Hope this is of some assistance and Best of Luck.

The Schmile

[New punter]

Thank you everybody, I really appreciate the assistance and the thought provoking comments.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

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Schmile it appears I will be doing some serious form tonight.<o:p></o:p>

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Are you able to recommend any ways to decipher the form, when I start, I am trying to eliminate horse that I believe can’t win and end up giving 75% of the field a chance! As you can probably tell I am a very systematic person by nature and I want to put some basic structures around my analysis.<o:p></o:p>

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Thanks again.<o:p></o:p>

[TheSchmile]

Hi New Punter,

1/ Start by marking off the top 5 average prizemoney winners, then those that have won or run 2nd at the distance.

2/ Also make note of those that have a 30% strike rate or more.
An easy way to do this is to buy the sportsman and use the chart form in the middle.

4/ Where do you like to punt?
Depending on time, I'd stick to one, maybe two meetings maximum and analyse the ******** out of them. Many punters try to back every horse at every meeting. Most people simply don't have the time to assess each race in this manner.

5/ Question: Do you have a basic understanding of the ratings/class system?
Group 1 - is the best, your Black Caviar's etc.
Then Group 2, Group 3, Listed in that order.

From there it's:
Open Handicaps
Rating 95, 90, 86, ----> down to rating 50 which I recommend you leave alone.
This is a very basic outline outline, however you'll need to gage the class structure so that you can assess if a horse is well placed, well weighted etc.

6/ Regarding the 75% factor you mentioned, many races will indeed have more than 5 real live chances. If you come to that conclusion then move on and assess the next race. Unless they are all 10/1 or more, then you can consider backing them for a profit.

7/ If you want to email me your selections once you've had a chance to do some form, I'd be happy to compare them with my assessments. I'll be doing form primarily for Rosehill and Caulfield.

My email is: paully77 at gmail dot com

Finally New Punter, I don't profess to know everything about racing and the one thing that will happen in this game, is you will be proven wrong many times. Some horses can improve leaps and bounds whereas others you expect to lift will plateau. The trick is to get it right, more than you get it wrong, at a price that gives you an edge.

Keep asking questions and you're halfway there.

The Schmile