Lay Unitab?

[michaelg]

I've been looking at Unitab ratings for laying.

1) Sole 100 pointer.
2) Won last start.
3) Not won its last two starts.
4) Not resuming.

On Friday there were 3 selections for 3 smiles.

Today so far there have been 10 selections for 10 smiles. There's one selection to go - Gold Coast R8 no.8.

Surprisingly there's only been 3 placegetters from the 13 selections.

[wesmip1]

Tested it for you ...

I assume you meant won last start and did not win the previous 2 races.
For resuming I assumed 28 days as not resuming, 29+ as resuming.

I set no price limit

It had 1031 selections for a loss of 85 units. The strike rate was 25% winners ( so 75% success rate for laying).

With a price limit of $10 it had:

958 selections for a loss of 103 units.

With a price limit of $5 it had :

555 selections for a loss of 77 units.


Not sure you want to follow this one michael.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Wesmip1.

I meant in rule 3 that it did not win its last and previous start. It must not have won its previous start, only its last start. I don't think its too uncommon for this to happen, so I applied the filter. In fact, there were 2 selections today that won their last two starts, both won today. Fortunately I did not lay them.

The Unitab page identifies a spell, which I use.

I thought the method would have fared better because of the low strike rate with Place betting.

[michaelg]

Wesmip1, it seems it would be a good Bet system.

However, because of Friday and yesterday's good Lay results I'll record the selections and see how they go.

Today's selections:

Sun Coast - 3/4
Muswellbrook - 7/8
Mildura - 5/1
Pinjarra - 10/1
Hobart - 5/7, 6/2

[michaelg]

Yesterday there were no accidents from the 7 selections. Only one placed.

No selections today.

[Bhagwan]

Doing well Michael.

I am going to have to buy a bigger cement truck to transfer my money around if this keeps up.

[michaelg]

20 selections over the past three days for 20 smiles - not bad.

There were 6 selections on Sunday not 7 as stated in my last posting, maybe I should go back to school and learn once more how to count.

Of the 20 selections I've only layed 2 of them, I'm not too confident.

[michaelg]

Two selections today:

Gosford
2/1
7/7

[michaelg]

There was one accident from yesterday's two selections for a loss of 1.70 units.

Looking at the past week's results and applying the last start winner rule to races whether they are Unitab's 100 pointers are not have provided an even greater profit (on paper).

I've applied two rules

1) No Black Type races.
2) Price is less than $10 in the Tele market. There were no accidents but it's risky to include these.

Today's selections:

Dubbo
3/3
7/3 and 9

Goulburn
4/3
5/6

Eagle Farm
7/1

Ascot
2/1, 2 and 3
4/1
6/5

Strathalbyn
4/1
5/1
6/4
7/5
8/9