Calling any Betting Geniuses

[The Ocho]

This is probably one of the dumbest things I've ever asked ever but here goes.

I can’t get my brains (or lack of) around this one.

Using Betfair, if a level stakes backing system has lost say $50, would a laying system using the same selections at the same prices therefore make $50?

I thought it would but I’m not sure because you are then losing large amounts when laying but only losing your $1 stake when backing.

Are they simply a mirror image of each other or am I missing something.

I told you it was a dumb question.

Thanks for any help (once you've picked yourself up off the floor :)).

:confused:

[Shaun]

It all comes down to strike rates and prices, as you would do with backing to work out if it is profitable do the reverse for laying, but remember the prices you use would be higher on the lay side unless you can lay at that price.

[The Elk]

Mate, I am not a betting genius, but I believe that to take a losing backing system and believe it will be a winning laying system is a little too simplistic.

1. with backing, you work to level stakes ($1 in your example)

2. with laying you work to a set liability - take Michael's laying system (laying SP for $30 liability)

He is laying some horses $100+
So as a backer, you can back 500/1 shot and lose only $1
as a layer your liability is $500 to collect that $1

Your example would probably show a profit laying, but like any system, test it out first with actual selections and look at it from a laying perspective.

[stugots]

short answer = no

been there done that Ocho - on average higher prices are required to guarantee lay bets getting matched which results in larger losses when the **************s salute, the opposite is true of win bets & then of course there is the issue of commission on your winnings

to put it another way - I have had some horrible win systems which while they didnt lose once I started laying, it became hardly worthwhile

[Bhagwan]

Generally speaking
If one is looking at a failed win only system as a possible laying system , the loss result has to be a min of -30% LOT if using TAB prices to work out past results.

The reason being that one has to assume Betfair prices being 20% greater than TAB prices.
Thus leaving us approx 10% POT.

So when we get bit , we will be trying to recover this & some.

If any one wishes to have a crack at Lay betting ...here's a tip.

Try & target only one selection per venue.e.g. 7 venues = 7 selections.
Bet .6% of bank.
Lay Price 3.50 $9.80
If all are successful = 4.2% increase on bank.

You will find that ones success rate will be a lot higher doing it this way,
Try it for 7 days & look at your results. You may be surprised how good you can be ,doing it this way.

But don't try & kid yourself that you can do it 5 times per venue at all venues, all the time, I wont happen.

[The Ocho]

Thanks guys.

So the general consensus is that, if the prices were the same, then the result would be reversed less more commission due to more winning lays than winning back bets (although then I wouldn't be paying larger commissions on the winning back bets). It's all very confusing. :confused:

Obviously it wouldn't be possible to have the same prices but if I have a 10% or less back/lay ratio (meaning the lay price is within 10% of the back price) then the results should only be 10% worse (possibly less commission).