My first system attempt

[max]

Okay so enough take and time to give.

I've been playing around with the 1st 5 favourites according the Newspaper the morning or the day before for years. I know there is a system there, I just have to find it. I am a probability person more so than a form or class person. So to speak!

I got some ideas for how to trim down my selections over the past few days since joining this forum. The S/R for each of the favourites are okay but not enough to sustain by themselves at a flat bet.

I used the Saturdays and Wednesdays of the past few weeks to begin with.

Here are the % S/R to win for each of the 1st 5:

1st 24%
2nd 14%
3rd 9%
4th 9%
5th 8%

I never like to bet on the 1st favourite because I don't like to bet in volume so a 1.30 win to me is next to useless compared to the risk. 2nd is often not much better.

The average wins over this same period is:

1st $3.46
2nd $5.16
3rd $8.36
4th $7.23
5th $14.41

3rd, 4th and 5th are much better average wins but by themselves, their S/R would kill me. So I looked at combining them.

Betting on 3rd, 4th and 5th would return 24% of the time. That gives me a S/R matching the favourites with potentially some bigger returns. On average the dividend split over 3 places betted upon, may not be much greater than the $3.46 but sometimes they can hit the roof.

So I decided to look into weighting the bets based on a total bet for each race of $10. So if 3rd favourite was listed as 11/2 and 4th was 7/1 and 5th was 8/1, the bets would be rounded up to be $4 on 3rd, $3 on 4th and $3 on 5th with the intent of either paying off all the outlay and returning a profit.

Applying this to my last few weeks of Sats and Weds I get 90 races which would have cost me $897 and returned $814 for a loss of $83. Pretty close. Now I just need to fine tune which races I ignore to increase my S/R on the ones that can really pull it off.

After fiddling around with the odds for each I settled upon this:

3rd fav has to be at least 6/1
4th fav has to be at least 8/1
5th fav has to be at least 10/1
drop any race that has a fav over 100/1 (optional as risk to reward ratio is too great to be ignored for that one off win)

So the new figures are:
Outlay $183
Return $370
Profit +$187

I am pretty happy with that even though the perfectionist inside of me says "is this the best I can find?"

I will leave this for a while and test it out. I may even pluck up the courage to drop selections in here each morning (never tried it on midweek meets but willing to check it out).

Feedback/ideas/flaming arrows?

I realise all is good in retrospect but the truth will come to light soon enough.

[Bhagwan]

Try this

.Target the top 5 in Pre-post

.Compare their Pre-post price to Betchoices opening price (far LHS)

.Bet all of those 5 that have a shorter price on Betchoice when compared to Pre-post price.

.Bet these at 1.3 units

.The remainders of the 5 are bet at 1.0 unit.

.Don't touch races with odds-on Favs.

What you will find is the very high number of success from those that have the 1.3 units on them.

Your run of outs will be minimal.

Try & bet with Betfair for the stronger value.

[max]

Thanks mate. I will look into that as well.

[max]

Any tips on WHEN to check against Betchoice?

Why Betchoice? Does it give a good indication of market confidence?

[max]

Okay 1st selections:

My system:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 210pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=280 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 85pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4132" width=113><COL style="WIDTH: 44pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2157" width=59><COL style="WIDTH: 81pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3949" width=108><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 85pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=113 height=20>BRDOOMBEN3 </TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 44pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=59>3, 6, 4 </TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 81pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=108>for 4, 3, 3 units </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>MRSANDOWN5 </TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">7, 6, 11 </TD><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">for 4, 3, 3 units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Outlay $20
Return
POI

Bagwan's suggestion:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 143pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=190 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 95pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4608" width=126><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 95pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=126 height=20>BRDOOMBEN1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>,4,,1,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>BRDOOMBEN3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">1,,,6,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>BRDOOMBEN4</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,3,,,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>BRDOOMBEN6</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,4,,8,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>BRDOOMBEN7</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,6,,3,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>SRCANTERBURY1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">8,,,11,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>SRCANTERBURY3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,7,,,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>SRCANTERBURY4</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,,7,,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>SRCANTERBURY6</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,,,,8</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>SRCANTERBURY7</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,4,,3,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>MRSANDOWN1</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,,2,,4</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>MRSANDOWN2</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,,6,,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>MRSANDOWN3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,,1,6,</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20>MRSANDOWN4</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">,,9,1,5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Outlay $31.20 (24 selections at 1.3 units each)
Return
POI

[moeee]

My system:

BRDOOMBEN3 3, 6, 4 for 4, 3, 3 units
MRSANDOWN5 7, 6, 11 for 4, 3, 3 units

Is this how it goes?

Doomben Race 3
#3 4 Units
#6 3 Units
#4 3 Units

Sandown Race 5
#7 4 Units
#6 3 Units
#11 3 Units

[max]

Yes.

It's 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites weighted out based on their odds from the paper so either one will return a similar return.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Max,

Good luck with your system.

A few questions


How do you decide between equal 5th favourites?
What paper's prepost market are you using, as markets can vary markedly?
Do you consider field size?

[Mark]

Interesting that you have Bhaggy's selections when Betchoice don't have prices up yet.

[max]

Try Try

How do you decide between equal 5th favourites? => If equal odds then I look at the recent starts
What paper's prepost market are you using, as markets can vary markedly? => I am using the Courier Mail because it is free for me most mornings and I am a set and forget sort of dude.
Do you consider field size? => no.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Easy Mark! I am reading the screen wrong!

I'm a noob. I just went to the screen and assumed it was like TAB and looked at the column labelled Win Betting > Best Tote + SP. I am guessing this is the wrong column? he he

So what am I looking for on Betchoice website and when is the earliest to get it?

[garyf]

Hi max.

Think you will find betchoice markets wont come
up until about 20-30 minutes before each race.

This is because they are ON-COURSE prices.

If you want early prices go to mark reads I.A.S.

Saturdays however betchoice will come up in the morning after scratchings.

Saturday prices on mark reads I.A. S. are available friday night.

Cheers
garyf.

[Mark]

They come up about 15-20 minutes before each race under the column headed flucs.
Don't know where you're looking on Saturday's garyf, they are never up early on Betchoice, because as you say they are the "official" on course prices.

[garyf]

Betchoice prices do come up on metro meetings early saturday mark.

Check the site about 11.30-12.00 pm the fixed odds odds prices
are under the fixed odds column.

The flucts column will remain empty.

When the on course prices are available the flucts column
will open with the on-course prices.

The fixed odds column will then dissappear.

The fixed odds column will then come up
more in line with the opening prices.

[Mark]

Correct garyf, but they are not the prices Bhagwan was talking about.

[garyf]

Max .

Here are some more sights that come up early on sat metro meets.

1= Betchoice.

2= IAS.

3= bETSTAR

4= SPORTINGBET.

5= LLOYD MERLEHAN'S TOP-SPORT.

Wont be much between them in terms
of odds but will give you a good idea
of what to expect come race time.

Cheers
garyf.

[garyf]

Max.

You can use these or wait till the
official on coursecome up.

Think bhagwan said wait till the opening
price comes up.

Check both maybe but you will find
the order of fav.s will be much the same.

Only the odds will differ.

[darkydog2002]

Would the odds and strike rate improve if you were to concentrate on "Good" track conditions only?
i.e Gawler is the only "Good TC " today.

Cheers and good luck.
darky

[max]

Results 2 from 2.

Days 1
Outlay $20.00
Return $47.10
POI 236%

A good start.

[Dennis G]

Good start, max.
I'm a bit concerned with the scratchings in B3.
Would you really still consider this race valid given that there were only four horses left?

[max]

Probably not but as I check the form via the newspaper at about 7am in the morning and then set and forget, it would still be included. It did return a profit anyhow and that is the main thing. Less runners means less risk but in this case I think I got lucky as the winner was 3rd fav and paid around $7. From my observation, less runners = more likely 1st fav will be low odds = more likely 3rd, 4th and 5th will extend out and pay more.

[max]

I stuffed up. I had no time Thursday to check the paper for selections until Thursday night, so I went through and worked the system and then worked out all that work was actually on Saturday's selections not Thursday. (*$^#ing Courier Mail!).

So here are Saturday's selections:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 210pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=280 border=0><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 85pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4132" width=113><COL style="WIDTH: 44pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2157" width=59><COL style="WIDTH: 81pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3949" width=108><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 85pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=113 height=20> SRRANDWICK2 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 44pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=59> 11, 4, 6 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 81pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=108> for 4, 3, 3 units </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20> SRRANDWICK5 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> 2, 7, 5 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> for 4, 3, 3 units </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20> SRRANDWICK7 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> 2, 4, 11 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> for 4, 3, 3 units </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20> BREAGLEFARM6 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> 1, 3, 8 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> for 4, 3, 3 units </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=20><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=20> MRCAULFIELD8 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> 4, 1, 11 </TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> for 3, 3, 3 units </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
I selections for Thursday will be after the fact but I have not seen any results yet so hopefully I can get Thursday up soon.

[marksto2]

hi, Sounds like a good approach similar to market forces strategy. From memory pre post market is pretty accurate as far as winners are concerned. Seen so many times when the pre post has a runner at evens an then they get up at $3-$4 on the tote.

what staking do you recommend with this? flat stakes may not be the best. money factory staking 5 point divisor is used in market forces (which I use) and works well.

Which paper is best to use for pre post? Sydney Morning Herald, Telegraph? who is the most accurate?

[max]

Luckily there were no selections for Thursday 21st April. No races qualified.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Marksto, I have no idea about the papers. I just get the Courier Mail for free each morning so I use that one. I am not a very experienced punter. Never even been off the TAB.

I do use a plan in that the odds for the 3 selections in the race are weighed up so whichever wins, a similar return is achieved.

Can you please explain the staking plan you mention and I am a relative noob at punting.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Max,
Can you say what defines a qualifying race before system is implemented?

I also get the Courier Mail free.
From the neighbours front lawn.

[beton]

ah ha Bhagwan
I am your neighbour.
The penny drops
Beton

[max]

Bagwan, ha ha. I live in an apartment block that also houses a hotel and they always have a pile of papers in the foyer. A little stroll into the foyer each morning and voila, a free paper!

Regarding qualifying races, the 3rd fav has to be 6/1 or more, the 4th fav has to be 8/1 or more and the 5th fav has to be 10/1 or more.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks Max,
That sounds logical enough .
Nice & simple , just the way I like it.

[max]

Results from Sat 23/4, 3 wins from 5 races:

Outlay 49 units
Return 126.80 units
Profit 77.80 units
S/R 60% (3 from 5)
POI 258%

TOTALS SO FAR:
Days 2
Outlay 69 units
Return 167.90 units
Profit 98.90 units
S/R 71% (5 from 7)
POI 243%

[Bhagwan]

Well done Max.

[Dale]

Hi Max,

Youve picked a great place to start,the pre post is a consistent angle.

Consider the prices like ratings rather than a guide to what the market might look like and you wont make the mistake many make of thinking they are unreliable.

Its one of the more reliable ratings methods going around.

[Bhagwan]

I agree with Dale here.

I use to be able to run 8 different types of ratings at one time & the Pre-post market had the highest SR when using the top 5 selections as a base test , than any ratings available.

Targeting top 5 ,returned -5% LOT using UniTAB prices.

Not bad when considering 5 runners a race was bet.
Delete the correct runner & your now in profit.

[Dale]

Top 6 pre post will win around 84% of all races,


An angle that might be worth pursuing is looking for big open races, leaving out the first 3 pre post favorites and betting the 4th,5th and 6th pre post.

[marksto2]

This reminds me. I bought a system back in the 90's with a mate. I am actually still young by the way! That actually I think was called Financial Success System based on the Gold Coast of all places.

It actually just followed on a Sat and Wednesday the pre post favourite Mel, Syd, Bris and stopped at first winner for the day. Target based.

Won every day. Sometimes though the losses mounted as it was a target based. Not sure if anyone remembers this.

[Try Try Again]

Hi Max,

Well done on your system so far.

Using different prepost markets obviously will throw up different selections - Melbourne Herald Sun gives different selections to Brisbane's Courier Mail hence I would not have backed your selections if I used the Herald Sun form guide.

What you have done is make me look closely at the 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites. At this stage I am only paper testing but results since 1st January 2011 are more than acceptable with some simple elimination rules it is possible to achieve a 50% race success rate and a 50% POT. This is for Saturday and Public Holiday Melbourne Metropolitan meetings betting $10 per race ($4,$3,$3).

Thanks for getting my grey matter working!

[max]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

No qualifying races for Wednesday 27 April.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dale. Interesting you should mention 6th favourite and the 84%. I have been tempted to expand my reading to the 6th favourite and get some stats on that. I may go back, otherwise I will begin that from tomorrow.

The whole idea is to get a few bets daily that return good money with an acceptable strike rate. This is done by using elimination rules which I drew the line at as 3rd at 6/1, 4th at 8/1 and 5th at 10/1.

If anyone else can suggest any other "eliminators", please throw them forth. I would love to refine it even more.

Once we get a great S/R, then I want to apply a staking plan to ready ramp up the returns and avoid any losses. This will be the next phase.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Marko. Do you still have that system? Can you explain it or send it to me. I would love to compare it and check it out.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi Try. I understand about the papers. The idea is to find the selections the day or morning before, lodge the bets and forget. The thing is, your selections may not be the same as mine. Does not mean you will not get the same results as you may win on a race I did not bet on or vice versa.

If anyone can suggest a better source for these morning odds, please add it in this thread.

[Bhagwan]

Hi mark,
The chasing of Pre-post fav stopping at a winner is the oldest system around & a number of mobs tout it to this day.

The problem arises if one tries to bet those that are under $3.00 using a progression.

The bets go through the roof even betting to a 1000:1 ratio trying to win $1.00

The up side is that sometimes these PP Favs pay $10.00

[max]

A poster in another thread suggested I ignore any Maiden races and 2YO races. In my system to date, I have noted Maiden races but not if they were 2YO races. Luckily none of my selection races to date have been maidens. When I do check the results for Maidens only not using my race selection process, Maidens only returns a good profit. It may be something to watch. I did note however that the 1st Maiden I recorded had the 5th fav come in at $46 which helped with the figures. But one of those regularly could be good.

[max]

Sorry for being slack in updating this thread. I am still working on this system. Hoping to identify more ideas for filtering to increase average return and minimise losses.

I have other days to update you all on but have not had much time to throw them all up here but will do soon.

I have tidied up the selection process with strict rules now in that I only want to spend a max of $10 per selected race (with each selection rounded up) for a goal of earning $20 (100% profit). In reality most winning races are returning around $52 per win so there is some good buffer there even though my S/R so far is around 42%.

As for today, I have 1 selection:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 420pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=560><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 420pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 20480" width=560><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 420pt; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl65 height=20 width=560>2011 05 06 FRI CRWAGGAWAGGA8, numbers 9 for 4 units, 4 for 4 units, and 13 for 3 units


Hope to have Saturdays selections up soon.

I am also tracking more information on the races so I can look at other filters, such things as whether or not they are true Maiden races (i was categorising anything with horses with no starts as "Maiden"), distance, number of runners and race class. I am also tracking 6th favourite from now on as well.

Any other thoughts you have would be greatly appreciated. Hoping to turn this little baby into a long term profitable system, but got a long way to go yet.


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[max]

Race selections for Saturday May 7th:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 420pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=560><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 420pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 20480" width=560><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 420pt; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 height=20 width=560>2011 05 07 SAT QRGOLDCOAST1, numbers 3 for 5 units, 12 for 4 units, and 8 for 3 units</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 height=20>2011 05 07 SAT SRCANTERBURY3, numbers 2 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 1 for 3 units</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 height=20>2011 05 07 SAT SRCANTERBURY7, numbers 5 for 5 units, 9 for 4 units, and 2 for 2 units</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 height=20>2011 05 07 SAT MRFLEMINGTON3, numbers 7 for 5 units, 2 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 height=20>2011 05 07 SAT MRFLEMINGTON5, numbers 6 for 5 units, 1 for 4 units, and 10 for 3 units</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 height=20>2011 05 07 SAT MRFLEMINGTON6, numbers 13 for 5 units, 6 for 3 units, and 5 for 3 units



</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 height=20>Not sure about regional but:
2011 05 07 SAT BRIPSWICH8, numbers 7 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 12 for 3 units
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[max]

Wagga did no good today.

Here's hoping for tomorrow to make me proud.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Max,
One very strong filter to consider is...

.Only Target races where the whole field has had 2+ career starts .
Otherwise, delete the race.

The reason for this is to be able to compare apples with apples,
instead of apples with apple surprise.
Just look at the outsiders that get up in those scattered form races, so they are usually best left alone.

There is nothing wrong with Maiden races , so long as they meet above criteria.

[max]

Bad day yesterday.

7 races selected for a total outlay of 80 units. Only MR3 returned for me. Returned $11.70 for 3 units gave me 46.80 units. Just over 50% return for the day. Not nice.

So far though, still in front:

Total Outlay 379.00 units
Total Return 644.30 units
Profit 265.30 units
Profit 170%

[Robot]

HI MAX.I have been following your thread and getting a few winners.One question you or any member might answer is which runner is selected when multi runners for the same fave occur.ie 3rd fav 6:1 3 runners listed at this price same race 5th fav 10:1 4 runners.Do we miss this race or filter some runners out .
Interested to see the reply Many thanks The robot.

[max]

Sorry if I am putting this up after the race. I have only just been able to get some time to check the races today and throw the qualfying 1 up here:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 425pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=567><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 425pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 20736" width=567><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 425pt; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 height=20 width=567>2011 05 09 MON VRECHUCA5, numbers 5 for 5 units, 4 for 4 units, and 9 for 3 units

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[max]

=> Bagwan. Thanks. I think that has naturally been happening anyhow but I will keep that in the filters.

=> Robot. It would be interesting see what fintering out any races with multiple selections at any odds does to the results. I will look into that. To answer your question I check the recent race positions, so if 3 horses at 6.0 are listed with recent runs of s125, 3726, 0374, then the 3rd would be 1st (0374), then the 1st (s125) and then the middle one (3726). If the recent races are the same, then see if the formguide has an arrow for up in class or down in class and choose the down in class. If that is the same, then choose lightest weight. I wont go any further as I have never had any multiples by this stay escpecially when you weed out races that are Maidens or with horses with 0 career starts.

[max]

I just checked for multiples in the 3rd, 4th or 5th fav selected races. Out of 6 races selected to date that had multiples, here are the results:

No races had the 3rd and any previous on same odds.

3rd and 4th fav on same odds, 0 wins and 2 losses for a loss of 22.00 units

4th and 5th fav on same odds, 2 wins and 2 losses for a profit of 90.00 units

I think the multiples pay for themselves well but is waaaaay too early to tell. I wish I could work out how to use a database and backtrack it all.

However. I also looked at when the 5th fav was at the same odds as the 6th or 7th or thereafter. 6 races return a win of 46 units from an outlay of around 70 units, so there could be something in dropping races where my last horse selection is on the same odds line as the 6th fav. I will keep track of that one.

[max]

Just took a look at the 5th fav and whether or not it was the same odds as any following favs. 5 races matched with only 1 win. The win did not cover the cost of those 5 races, so dropping them from my selections to date increased my profit from 56% to 67% to date. My S/R dropped slightly from 33.33% to 30.56% but my average win increased from 53.69 to 54.32 units. Interesting.

I will keep an eye on including and not including those races as my sample data increases in size and duration.

[Robot]

MAX
Maybe i did not explain myself well. What I want to know is if at the 3rd line of prices we have 4 runners, which one gets the nod then to find on the 5th line 3 runners are selected.
I am using per post odds from the paper a Fairfax publication here in NSW after scratchings which could give a false market. This is done of a morning as I make my bets then and get the results the next day
Thanks for your interest and looking forward to your comments.Like you new to the forum but what an exciting place if at all interested in the sport of KINGS Regards ROBOT.

[Robot]

[QUOTE=Robot]MAX
Maybe i did not explain myself well. What I want to know is if at the 3rd line of prices we have 4 runners, which one gets the nod then to find on the 5th line 3 runners are selected.
I am using per post odds from the paper a Fairfax publication here in NSW after scratchings which could give a false market. This is done of a morning as I make my bets then and get the results the next day
Thanks for your interest and looking forward to your comments.Like you new to the forum but what an exciting place if at all interested in the sport of KINGS Regards ROBOT.
PS ARE those runners not selected disregarded and then move to the next price line.

[max]

=> Robot. You did explain yourself. Maybe my explanation was not as easy to understand as it is to me, being in the know. I will try and post up a sample race.

In the meantime, WE HAD A WIN! Echuca race 5 returned 4.90 on the 4th favourite. Lower than what we wanted but enough to make a profit for the day using the unit stakes I prescribed. A 7.60 unit profit for the day.

So result to date are now:


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 96pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=128><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=2 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; WIDTH: 48pt; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl64 height=20 width=64>Return</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63 width=64>663.90 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl64 height=20>Outlay</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl63>414.00 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl64 height=20>Profit</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl65>$ 249.90 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl64 height=20>Profit %</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl66>160.36%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

And if I drop races where the 5th fav has the same odds as those following:


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 96pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=128><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=2 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; WIDTH: 48pt; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl66 height=20 width=64>Return</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl65 width=64>617.10 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl66 height=20>Outlay</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl65>357.00 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl66 height=20>Profit</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl67>$ 260.10 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl66 height=20>Profit %</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black; BORDER-LEFT: black; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; BORDER-TOP: black; BORDER-RIGHT: black" class=xl68>172.86%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[max]

Here's an example race for selection:

Sat May 7 at SR Canterbury
Race 3 De Bertoli Wines Hcp 1100m 3yo & up Benchmark 85

1. 04850 Mount Verde 59.5k 21.00
2. 70871 Empire Place 57k 13.00
3. s5549 My Vegas 57k 13.00
4. s070s Martin Place 56.5k 35.00
5. 02471 Fitness Fanatic 56k 5.00
6. 1s211 Rain affair 56k 1.42
7. 32107 Mighty Obvious 54k 35.00
8. 33012 Ravna Gora SCRATCHED
9. 30s00 Danza Doll 53k 23.00

So I rank the top 6 using the odds on the right.
1st Fav would be #6 because the odds are 1.42
2nd Fav is #5 because he is 5.00
3rd Fav is #2 because 13.00 is the next odds and also #2 won his last start.
4th Fav is #3 because he is also 13.00 but with worse last start result than #2
5th Fav is #1 at 21.00
6th Fav is #9 at 23.00

To bet on the race, the 3rd Fav needs to be equal to or greater than 6.00, the 4th >= 8.00 and 5th >= 10.00. This race qualifies and so my selections would be #2, #3 and #1. They then go into my staking plan with weighs them based on their odds to make sure that whichever horse wins, a similar return on investment is achieved with an outlay of around 10-12 units per race. Sometimes the return is higher, sometimes lower than expected. In this case they were staked 4, 4 and 3 in that order, for an outlay of 11 units.

In this case the 1st Fav won. No problem. If the 3rd Fav had won at 13.00 then I would have won 52 units for an outlay of 11.

[max]

The selections for today:

*2011 05 10 TUE VRMORNINGTON4, numbers 3 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 1 for 4 units
*2011 05 10 TUE CRCASINO5, numbers 8 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
2011 05 10 TUE NRGOULBURN5, numbers 2 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 7 for 3 units

The * selections are the B option which is to drop any races where the 5th fav is the same odds as the 6th or later favourites. This reduction is showing to be better off but is still in need of confirmation.

[Robot]

MAX

Thanks for that quick reply. A little late today the wife's sport day so a few extra chores.Have started to get todays selection from my paper and see how they confirm with yours .Many thanks again Regards ROBOT

[max]

Mixed emotions today.

2 of the races returned good values. Unfortunately they both are the ones I highlighted as having the 5th fav at the same odds as the 6th fav. Damn it! always the way.

So if you bet all 3 races you would have outlayed 34 units and won back 82.70 units for a ROI of 243% for the day.

If you dropped the "*" races you would have outlayed 11 units and got 3 back for a ROI of 27%.

There's always tomorrow.

I also went back and completed some race days that I had the paper for but did not run through my system. Using all races that qualify I am now on 140% ROI and if I drop races with 5th fav same odds as 6th fav the ROI jumps to 190%.

I also a few other things out. Running a 1 unit bet on 5th fav only if the races qualify as per my normal selection process returns a ROI of 280%, but wins are few are far between. Running a 2% bank grows the bank to 314% increase. May be something worth looking into I think.

I am also looking into what to do with races that do not qualify under my system and what I can do with those horses that do win in my selected races that are not my horses selected. A mouthful I know but the more I look into the data, the more questions I get. Good fun!

[mattio]

Hi Max,

You might want to consider using POT (Profit On Turnover) instead of ROI (Return On Investment) to describe your results as it is more commonly used in horse racing. I say this as in your above examples you refer to getting back 3 units on an 11 unit outlay and calling it a 27% ROI which would indicate a profit when it is actually a loss (-8 units).

It is much the same calculation but you divide the actual profit (or loss) by the outlay and not the total return.

Keep up the good work.

Cheers,

Matt.

[Robot]

MAX
HI After receiving your selections for today I than did mine as I indicated.I came up with similar answers but at 2 meetings there where scratchings which you had selected. I discarded them but are you doing yours without taking the scratchings out when analizing your selections.
Regards again ROBOT

[enjay]

Hi MAX and others

A good site for pre post markets tonight for tomorrows racing is http://www.way2bet.com.au/form-guides.

Not sure about Qld Courier Mail but you can check it out, but I do know that the prices quoted tonight will be identical for those in the Daily Telegraph here in NSW tomorrow morning.

Hope that is a help for those that want identical selections.

Cheers.

Enjay

[max]

Selections for today are:

*2011 05 11 WED PRBELMONT5, numbers 9 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 8 for 3 units
*2011 05 11 WED PRBELMONT7, numbers 5 for 5 units, 3 for 3 units, and 4 for 3 units

Both these races have the 5th fav at the same odds as the 6th and so would be dropped from Option B of the plan. But as we saw yesterday, this may not necessarily be a bad thing. Overall, they still are but the sample data is too small to tell for sure.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

=> Matt. Thanks Matt. To me ROI is the actual return compared to the investment, so 27% would mean a 73% loss. But I will move over to dividing the Profit by the Outlay and calling it POT from now on.

=> Robot. I do my selections 1st thing in the morning. The idea of this plan is to set and forget. Set them as soon as the data is avail, make the bets and then check them the next morning. If you do move the selections up in ranking when a selection is scratched, what sort of result did you get?

=> Enjay. Thanks mate. I hate having to steal the Courier Mail from the hotel lobby each morning. Having something similar online, especially the night before sounds awesome. I will check it out and respond.

[max]

Interesting.

According to the odds on that link, 4 Belmont races qualify:

PR5*
PR6*
PR7*
PR9

Again with * to show any with 5th fav on same odds as the 6th fav.

I hope to check all the tracks today and will be interesting to see the results.

[max]

In addition to above, W2B site qualifies Randwick 6* and 7.

[Robot]

HI MAX. In answer to what do I DO with a scratching to a maybe selection I have been ignoring that race as the PP would alter to a great extent So why worry as I do this manually.Regards ROBOT

[max]

A very interesting day.

According to selections of the original system, 2 races were selected for a total outlay of 22 units and 1 of them returned 38 units.

Both races would have been dropped according to Option B which drops races where the 5th fav is the same odds as the 6th fav.

Using the odds on the web2bet site, a total of 6 races were identified with returns on 4 of them. These odds are turning out to be a good source. Maybe even a set alternative.

Further testing required.

[max]

Okay results time

OPTION A (standard 3rd, 4th and 5th fav if they are odds of >=6, >=8, >=10:
WTD (week to date) Returns 141.10 units off 68 for POT of 107%
MTD (month to date) Returns 187 units off 159 for POT of 18%
YTD (year to date) Returns 728 off 514 for POT of 41%

OPTION B (drop any race where 5th fav is same odds as 6th fav)
WTD returns 22 off 23 for POT -2%
MTD returns 22 off 56 for POT -60%
YTD returns 554 off 298 for POT 86%

I guess dropping those races DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE!

OPTION C (using Web2Bet website instead of Courier Mail for odds)
WTD returns 121 off 68 for POT 78%

[max]

Selections for today:

OPTION C (w2b site)
Ballarat7 - 3,12,4*
Ballarat8 - 9,3,6*
GoldCoast6 - 1,7,11*

I will get to the Courier Mail when I can.

[max]

courier Mail race selections are:

*2011 05 12 THU QRGOLDCOAST4, numbers 5 for 5 units, 2 for 4 units, and 12 for 3 units
2011 05 12 THU ARMORPHETTVILLE1, numbers 1 for 5 units, 10 for 4 units, and 4 for 2 units
2011 05 12 THU ARMORPHETTVILLE6, numbers 7 for 4 units, 8 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
*2011 05 12 THU VRBALLARAT7, numbers 3 for 4 units, 12 for 4 units, and 4 for 3 units
*2011 05 12 THU VRBALLARAT8, numbers 9 for 4 units, 3 for 4 units, and 6 for 3 units

[max]

Results:

OPTION A
Return 28.00
Outlay 56.00
Profit -$28.00
POT% -50.00%

OPTION B
Return 28.00
Outlay 22.00
Profit $6.00
POT% 27.27%

OPTION C (W2B)
Return -
Outlay 34.00
Profit -$34.00
POT -100%

[max]

Selections for tomorrow (FRI):

OPTION C (odds using Web2Bet site)
*2011 05 13 FRI ALBANY2
*2011 05 13 FRI IPSWICH1
*2011 05 13 FRI IPSWICH2
2011 05 13 FRI IPSWICH4
2011 05 13 FRI SCONE3
*2011 05 13 FRI SCONE6
*2011 05 13 FRI SCONE7

[4legs]

Hi Max - you are going very well but just a thought ...

if the Pre-Post market is calculated for "Good" tracks and the tracks are Heavy (or slow) as was the situation today could this be one reason for today's below average performance?

Fred

[max]

I did go back through my selections to date and record the track conditions and filtering these made no real difference to returns. I am keeping an eye on this though as the sample data increases, so too will some of these less affecting filters, hopefully!

[max]

More selections for today (FRI):

OPTION 1 (Courier Mail)
*2011 05 13 FRI ALBANY2, numbers 8 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 9 for 3 units
2011 05 13 FRI IPSWICH1, numbers 8 for 5 units, 9 for 4 units, and 2 for 3 units
*2011 05 13 FRI SCONE5, numbers 13 for 4 units, 6 for 4 units, and 7 for 3 units

[max]

Okay so lets expand on the track condition as a possible filter using data to date.

Total results for all data to date up to and including Thurs 12/5:

OPTION 1 (Courier Mail 3rd fav >= 6.00, 4th fav >= 8.00 and 5th fav >= 10.00)
Return 756.10
Outlay 570.00
Profit $186.10
POT% 32.65%

OPTION 2 (Courier Mail with races dropped where 5th fav is same odds as 6th fav)
Return 582.80
Outlay 320.00
Profit $262.80
POT% 82.13%

OPTION 3 (same as Option 1 but using WEB2BET site)
Return 121.00
Outlay 102.00
Profit $19.00
POT 19%

Now If I separate these by track condition of HEAVY, SLOW, DEAD, GOOD we get:

HEAVY OPTION 1
Return 34.00
Outlay 47.00
Profit -$13.00
POT% -27.66%

HEAVY OPTION 2
Return 34.00
Outlay 35.00
Profit -$1.00
POT% -2.86%

HEAVY OPTION 3
Return -
Outlay 12.00
Profit -$12.00
POT -100%

SLOW OPTION 1
Return 152.20
Outlay 101.00
Profit $51.20
POT% 50.69%

SLOW OPTION 2
Return 109.30
Outlay 57.00
Profit $52.30
POT% 91.75%

SLOW OPTION 3
Return 62.40
Outlay 23.00
Profit $39.40
POT 171%

DEAD OPTION 1
Return 389.00
Outlay 321.00
Profit $68.00
POT% 21.18%

DEAD OPTION 2
Return 300.40
Outlay 172.00
Profit $128.40
POT% 74.65%

DEAD OPTION 3
Return -
Outlay 22.00
Profit -$22.00
POT -100%

GOOD OPTION 1
Return 180.90
Outlay 101.00
Profit $79.90
POT% 79.11%

GOOD OPTION 2
Return 139.10
Outlay 56.00
Profit $83.10
POT% 148.39%

GOOD OPTION 3
Return 58.60
Outlay 45.00
Profit $13.60
POT 30%

Sample data for OPTION 3 is only 3 days long so little can be gleaned at this stage from that data.

Looking at this now, maybe there is something in dropping HEAVY tracks?

I am hoping to get this sample data to a full month where I have checked at least 3 - 4 days per week to a sample data range of 20+ days of racing. Then hopefully I will be able to get a good idea of some effective filters to apply.

Heck I may even open an online account and put a dollar or 2 down!

[beton]

Max
You are targeting the 3-4 & 5th favorite. Good tracks account for two thirds of all races. Good tracks actually favour the favorite and the second favorite. track condition other than good favour the 3-4-5 & 6th favs. It is only a slight bias less than 1% in all. 14.62% on 13.99% is a 4.5% increase for 3rd fav. 11.2% on 10.31% is an 8.63% increase for 4th fav. 5th favs results are consistent. 6th fav 6.68% on 5.66% is an 18% increase. These are the best results for slow,heavy,fast and dead tracks compared with good tracks.
I would not exclude track conditions

[Try Try Again]

Hi Max,

Congratulations on what you have achieved so far and may it continue to prosper!

I have had a look at the qualifiers you have put up so far and have looked at only considering races with >=11 runners. It appears to increase your profit and POT% considerably.

I also consider only City meetings with >= 11 runners and this too increased your profit and POT%.

Obviously with so few selections the trends may not continue but may be they will - who is to know.

Let's see what happens over the next month or two.

[beton]

Max
your best filter for these is.
DO NOT BET IT FAV IS <$2.50 on tote. You may even push it out to $3. With form, (no maidens no 1st uppers etc) and under $2 it is the favorite's race. Between $2 and $3 it is the fav and 2nd fav's races so long as the second fav price is <$4. From $3 fav price the strike rate for the 3-4 & 5 favs increase from their average strike rate. Beton

[max]

Selections for Sat 14th May

OPTION 1
20110514SAT BELMONT1, numbers 2 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
*20110514SAT BELMONT5, numbers 10 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 6 for 3 units
20110514SAT CAULFIELD6, numbers 4 for 5 units, 8 for 4 units, and 1 for 3 units
*20110514SAT DOOMBEN3, numbers 12 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 7 for 4 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN4, numbers 11 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN6, numbers 4 for 4 units, 10 for 4 units, and 2 for 3 units
20110514SAT DOOMBEN7, numbers 5 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units, and 4 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE2, numbers 5 for 4 units, 1 for 4 units, and 3 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE3, numbers 6 for 4 units, 4 for 4 units, and 7 for 3 units
*20110514SAT SCONE4, numbers 7 for 5 units, 8 for 4 units, and 5 for 3 units

OPTION 2
As above but drop the * races

OPTION 3
20110514SAT CAULFIELD6
*20110514SAT CAULFIELD7
20110514SAT DOOMBEN4
20110514SAT DOOMBEN6
20110514SAT DOOMBEN7
*20110514SAT SCONE3
*20110514SAT SCONE4
20110514SAT SCONE6

[max]

Thanks for the input Beton and Try Try. I will take at these ideas further next week and report back.

I'm also going to check into the suggestion on another thread about the 1st and 2nd favs more likely to win the 1st few races of the day when compared to the last few races. See if that increases or decreases my POT. Stay tuned.

Looks like a lot of action tomorrow. Let the maths roll on!

[max]

Results for FRI 13th MAY (very very bad!)

OPTION 1
Return -
Outlay 34.00
Profit -$34.00
POT% -100.00%

OPTION 2
Return -
Outlay 12.00
Profit -$12.00
POT% -100.00%

OPTION 3
Return 17.60
Outlay 79.00
Profit -$61.40
POT -78%

And just when I thought I was getting on top of this system!

[Try Try Again]

Hi Max,

Any updated selection numbers with 3 races having scratchings? i.e. Doomben 3, Scone 2 & 4.

[max]

No. This is a set and forget system. Plus, I checked those races tonight the winners were earlier in the race or the next horse and was still in the 3 picks anyhow.

Results today (BAD!):
OPTION 1
Return 90.30
Outlay 116.00
Profit -$25.70
POT% -22.16%

OPTION 2
Return 45.70
Outlay 58.00
Profit -$12.30
POT% -21.21%

OPTION 3
Return 90.00
Outlay 93.00
Profit -$3.00
POT -3%

[max]

On a side note, betting 5th on ALL races that qualify with 5% of the bank:

Start $245.60
Current $271.60
Profit $26.00
POT% 10.59%

[max]

Selection for today:

OPTION 1
20110516MON ALBANY1, numbers 7 for 5 units, 12 for 3 units, and 3 for 3 units

Have not had any time to check the W2B site today.

[max]

No smile today.

[max]

No smiles for Fri and Sat either.

Results for Fri 20 May:

OPTION 1:
Return 66.40
Outlay 93.00
Profit -$26.60
POT% -28.60%

OPTION 2:
Return 58.40
Outlay 24.00
Profit $34.40
POT% 143.33%

OPTION 3:
Return 4.00
Outlay 47.00
Profit -$43.00
POT -91%

Results for Sat 21 May:

OPTION 1:
Return 55.90
Outlay 81.00
Profit -$25.10
POT% -30.99%

OPTION 2:
Return 11.50
Outlay 11.00
Profit $0.50
POT% 4.55%

OPTION 3:
Return 235.10
Outlay 159.00
Profit $76.10
POT 48%

[max]

So far to date:

OPTION 1:
Return 944.70
Outlay 905.00
Profit $39.70
POT% 4.39%

OPTION 2:
Return 686.40
Outlay 436.00
Profit $250.40
POT% 57.43%

OPTION 3:
Return 467.70
Outlay 480.00
Profit -$12.30
POT -3%

Will have to look at other ideas. A lot of work and the more I look the worst it seems to get.

[max]

Selections for today Wed 25 May:

OPTION 3:
Belmont7 8,3,4
Canterbury3 1,8,11,9*
Canterbury5 2,5,3
Morphettville7 11,3,4
Morphetvtille8 5,7,6,8*

The * are when >5th fav is at same odds as the 5th Fav. Ignore for betting but keep in mind when checking results.

[max]

Results for Wed 25 May:

OPTION 3:
Return 94.60
Outlay 57.00
Profit $37.60
POT 66%

Good result and once again it was the race that did not have duplicate selections for 5th fav.

I am hesitant to continue with this system as it takes a good hour to process all 3 options each morning and the results just are not what I was hoping for. I will check it once or twice a week. If I had time I would put all races in for all days and start looking at filters such as track conditions, metro vs country, days of the week, number of horses in the race and so on. Just all takes too much time.

[max]

OPTION 3 RESULTS FOR THIS WEEK (COULD NOT DO MONDAY):

20110531TUE DUBBO6 select 6 for 4 units, 13 for 4 units and 11 for 3 units
20110601WED BELMONTPARK1 select 1 for 4 units, 11 for 4 units and 2 for 3 units
20110601WED BELMONTPARK5 select 3 for 5 units, 5 for 3 units and 11 for 3 units
20110601WED BELMONTPARK8 select 6 for 4 units, 15 for 4 units and 4 for 3 units
20110602THU STRATHALBYN3 select 3 for 4 units, 5 for 4 units and 10 for 4 units
20110602THU ROCKHAMPTON7 select 2 for 5 units, 4 for 3 units and 5 for 3 units
20110603FRI CANBERRA7 select 9 for 5 units, 3 for 4 units and 6 for 3 units
20110603FRI TAMWORTH2 select 10 for 5 units, 4 for 3 units and 11 for 3 units
20110603FRI TAMWORTH8 select 5 for 5 units, 1 for 4 units and 7 for 3 units

RETURN 110.10
OUTLAY 102.00
PROFIT $8.10
POT 8%

[max]

Selections for Sat 4 June:

OPTION 3:
20110604SAT BELMONTPARK2 select 3 for 6 units, 6 for 3 units and 9 for 3 units
20110604SAT EAGLEFARM5 select 21 for 4 units, 14 for 4 units and 20 for 4 units
20110604SAT KILMORE4 select 7 for 4 units, 13 for 4 units and 10 for 3 units
20110604SAT ROSEHILL3 select 8 for 4 units, 2 for 4 units and 1 for 3 units
20110604SAT MORPHETTVILLE1 select 3 for 5 units, 4 for 4 units and 7 for 3 units
20110604SAT NEWCASTLE6 select 7 for 5 units, 4 for 3 units and 13 for 3 units
20110604SAT NEWCASTLE8 select 6 for 5 units, 7 for 4 units and 3 for 3 units
20110604SAT ROSEHILL8 select 17 for 5 units, 16 for 3 units and 3 for 3 units
20110604SAT SANDOWN8 select 1 for 5 units, 11 for 3 units and 9 for 3 units

[max]

Results for Sat:

Return 67.00
Outlay 103.00
Profit -$36.00
POT -35%

PURE SELECTIONS LOST 86%
NON PURE GAINED 18%

So no real indication that I am on the right track yet with this system.

I have identified some filters to restrict the races selected where the 1st or 2nd favourite has good odds and actually does win. But further investigation is required.

[Bhagwan]

Try it on fields of 12-14 runners only.

This should give you stronger dividends.

What can kill the plan is the short priced favs getting up all day knocking your horse off at the finishing line.

So maybe only target the 12-14 runner races where the fav tends to get up a little less.

[max]

Thanks Bhagwan I will look at that. I am also looking at the dropping any race where the 1st fav is less than 2.00 or such. Also checking including 2nd fav instead of 5th in some instances as well. All good investigation angles.

[Bhagwan]

Try this...

.Target Don Scott or Neurals top 4 selections & delete 1 of them, so that you have 3 selections.

.Target races where the whole field has had 2+ career starts.

Some of the prices can be amazing.

You will show a good profit if you can delete the the right horse.