An Awesome Laying System...Please check

[marksto2]

Hi Guys,

I believe the following will be an excellent laying system potentially on a set and forget basis or Betfair SP or flat stakes laying.

1) Horses that ran 2nd last start
2) Resuming from a spell
3) Win % under 20

Can someone see what the overall results are by using a system builder or database?

[luv2bet]

hi marksto,
I dont think there would be much action with those rules. Not many horses run a 2nd then are sent to the paddock for a spell..
Or have I missed something?

[marksto2]

The form should read as follows

2X

I believe the focus should lead to lower prices with a high risk of losing and an overall profit on turnover. This is the theory and from observations.

Tomorrows selections would be. I would also advise to limit the price to say under $8 or $10.

Cant R2 - 9
3 - 4
5 - 6

Ascot R4 - 8
8 - 12

[Bhagwan]

It should work just fine.


Here's another Lay Plan to have a go at , it has been performing very well .

RULES
.Target TAB No.1

.Lay price to be approx $3.50-4.50

Lay Bet 1.5% of bank , level stakes.


Profit objective 1.75% a day then STOP for the day.
This equates to approx 50% a month.

It works a treat.

[raldridge]

I checked this back 6 months in Neale Yardley's Bet Selector program and got these figures
races 477
bets 522
longest lay collect run 32
average payout odds using NSW tab odds 3.73
showing -50.6% when win backed on NSW tab.

would need to be checked using actual Betfair lay odds of course
but looks very good.
I presume this is a win lay method not a place lay method?

[marksto2]

Hi Ralridge,

Are these stats for my system below of Bhagwans??

The selections I mentioned below all lost and at favourite and near favourite odds. I wish I had insight into a database of results as I believe this will be highly profitable.

Cheers,
Mark

[Bhagwan]

That -50.6% LOT TAB prices, is the type of figure we like to see.

Betfair usually pays 20% more ,therefore, the Betfair result would have been

approx -30% LOT which is a profit to us, when lay betting.

Thanks for testing that.

Well done.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,

The test I did was on your lay method not Bhagwan's.

[domenic]

Hi Guys,

I believe the following will be an excellent laying system potentially on a set and forget basis or Betfair SP or flat stakes laying.

1) Horses that ran 2nd last start
2) Resuming from a spell
3) Win % under 20

Can someone see what the overall results are by using a system builder or database?I have run this from today back to Jan 1 2010, NSW dividends.

Races; 1284
Bets; 1387
Wins; 195
Strike Rate; 15.2%
Ave Win Div; $4.98
Loss $; -415.50
LOT; -30.00%
Ave Starting Price; $14.40

Best of luck with it.

[marksto2]

Thanks so much Domenic. Really appreciated.

I am actually thinking of a maximum lay price cut off of $10. Not sure if this will improve the bottom line.

Assuming Betfair odds are 20% better than NSW TAB prices then this should easily make a 10% profit on turnover if I am reading correct?

Cheers
Mark

[Stix]

Stupid question...so here goes anyway....

After looking up an internet search on placing a lay bet at BF, is it right that if you laya a horse for $5 @ $3.... you lose $15 if it wins and you win $5 if it loses? Or has my brain just frozen...now go easy on me Pls :rolleyes:

...less commission of course.

[Shaun]

You only lose $10 as the backer has to place $5 on the bet, the same as if you put $5 on a runner paying $3 you get back $15 but your profit is $10

When working out your liability use this formula
(Lay Amount X Price - Lay Amount)

[domenic]

Thanks so much Domenic. Really appreciated.

I am actually thinking of a maximum lay price cut off of $10. Not sure if this will improve the bottom line.

Assuming Betfair odds are 20% better than NSW TAB prices then this should easily make a 10% profit on turnover if I am reading correct?

Cheers
Mark
Cut off at $10, the results are as follows;

Bets; 866
Wins; 179
S/Rate; 20.67%
Ave Div; $3.72
Loss; -200.12
LOT; 23.10%

From $1.00 to $3.90 shows only a loss of 0.1%.
On the limited data I have posted, laying in this price range may not be advisable.
From $4 to $10 shows a loss of 36%

[The Ocho]

Stupid question...so here goes anyway....

After looking up an internet search on placing a lay bet at BF, is it right that if you laya a horse for $5 @ $3.... you lose $15 if it wins and you win $5 if it loses? Or has my brain just frozen...now go easy on me Pls :rolleyes:

...less commission of course.
I think Shaun answered it well. You have to deduct $1 from the price to know what you are giving up should the horse win (which would be a losing lay bet). In your case you would be losing $10 ($5 bet x $2 odds) but win $5 if it is a winning lay (the horse loses).

So laying $1 on a $10 horse would mean you stand to lose $9 ($10 odds-1) or win $1.

I wish I could describe it better. I hope you get the gist. You are basically winning a fiver from someone else who has bet on the horse to win. You are the bookie (less 5% of course) :).

[Bhagwan]

Hi Stix,
This Laying caper feels like its doing ones nut in when one first starts looking at it, but becomes clearer after one works with it a few thousand times.

The easiest way to work with it is to use fractional odds in ones thinking.
e.g, 2/1 (3.00)
Laying $5 bet x 2/1 = $10 Liab
If Horse wins instead of loosing race for us = -$10
If Horse looses instead of winning race, we make money = +$5

The real art in Lay betting is selecting Lay horses to fall over at prices approx
3.5/1 ($4.50) & less.
Not easy.

Example No.2
Lay bet a 100/1 shot at $5 to fall over
If it falls over , you win +$5
If it wins race, you lose -$500

Betfair take the $500 out of your account when you make the Lay bet.
If successful , they place $505 into you A/C.

If one wishes to have a go at it , I feel its important to set a max price you are prepared to run with & not go over that max price.

I feel every punter should have a go at Lay betting because one really gets a true feeling of what the term value means in punting once you get used to it.

Bet .6% of Bank level stakes is a safe approach, up to Lay prices $9.80,
good for 19-28 outs depending on prices.

The best success will be had restricting volume of bets to making 2% profit a day, then STOP.
Stopping is the hard part for nearly all punters, its discipline thing.
Any more & you will find yourself giving it all back & some.

There is a book that Betfair recommends called ...
Lay Betting on Betfair for Dummies.
Well don't buy it.
Its written by a real dumb as s , with stupid anecdotes through nearly all of it, with only one page about lay betting & even that has a major error in it.

I rang Betfair about this major error & they still recommend that people buy the stupid thing.
Hello!
What does that tell you about them.

[stugots]

I feel every punter should have a go at Lay betting because one really gets a true feeling of what the term value means in punting once you get used to it.



true this, although I would urge caution for those punters with a short fuse - take the frustration you feel on 'those days' when most of your bets run a nose 2nd & multiply by oh 3 or 4 to get an idea of ones likely mood when laying & 1/2 the *******'s win!

often found myself laying to any old price just to get matched & this is a very bad habit to get into, value is the key no matter which side of the market you are on

[thorns]

true this, although I would urge caution for those punters with a short fuse - take the frustration you feel on 'those days' when most of your bets run a nose 2nd & multiply by oh 3 or 4 to get an idea of ones likely mood when laying & 1/2 the *******'s win!

often found myself laying to any old price just to get matched & this is a very bad habit to get into, value is the key no matter which side of the market you are on
Yip, agree with both the above, trying to lay horses taught me so much about the markets, and what horses are generally value, and which are poor value. I actually abandoned laying as although I was successful, it really didnt suit my punting, hated laying horses that won, just really did my head in!

However what I learnt from it has comepletely turned my win betting around.

Spending some time laying horses was perhaps teh most valuable punting lesson I have ever had. Dont do it on paper either, put $100 into a BF account and do it for real, the difference between paper trading and real money trading on BF can be quite significant.

[Stix]

Thanks very much to Shaun, Bhags, The O, Stu and Thorns.

Clearly an art to capital management in this form of betting as well, so thanks for the replies.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,
I passed your lay system rules to a person who has a Betfair database going back 11 months and here are his comments,

There were 710 selections for 99 winners returning 530.83 The profit here is approximately 144 units.
This had no odds restriction. It was in profit 9 of 11 months tested. The months when it was down it hit long shots.
Restricting this to maximum $20 lay price reduced it to 513 selections for 97 winners and a profit of 26.

I don't see this being a system I would bet. Most of the profit comes from the longer then $20 priced horses. Based on this 1 or 2 winners in this price range could easily wipe out this profit and even make it show a loss.
Those under $20 are not up by much either. 2 winners above $10 and you have wiped out the majority of your profit.

As you can see he has proved that your lay system did perform over the 11 months testing using actual lay odds and after deducting the Betfair commission.

[marksto2]

Hi Raldridge,

Really appreciate your investigations and efforts. Thank you. I was pretty sure that there would be some form of edge in this simple method. I am thinking of betting these to Betfair SP in order to place a limit on the prices and set and forget basis to see how it goes in real time.

From my recent experience betting to win a set amount and then stopping for the day has been one of the best pieces of advise whether win or lay betting.

Any thoughts on refining or improving this would be great.

Cheers and thanks,
Mark

[Bhagwan]

That TAB No.1 Lay Sytem struck 4 successes from 4 races.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,
Checked your lay system since last Wednesday 27/4 and got these figures

8/9 lays
88.89% lay strike rate ( average 1 pay out in 9 lays )
42% POT
current win sequence 7
13.01 average odds of all lays.

early days yet but looks very good.
Well done Mark.

[marksto2]

Hi Raldridge,

Today's selections were Grafton R1 - 5, R2 - 2

Race 1 above was $3.8 fixed at the jump with IAS so this would have been laid operating under $10. Race 2 above would not have been matched with a max of $10 as this was around $30.

Ipswich R1 - 5 was the other selection which was $1.70! Another nice lay. I am yet to see one actually win (famous last words!)

Raldridge, Given it's difficult to place bets during the day. Are you able to see what the profit / loss would have been laying at Betfair SP with a lay price limit of $10??

If the figures stack up on the above then this could be a nice little set and forget lay method.

Please let me know and thanks,

Mark

[Bhagwan]

Why dont you just use a Bot if you want set & forget.

Just set your price parameters & how many secs till jump & you done .

You will be laughing like a Hyena.

Try this Free Bot

BetSoftPro

Your system has been working well .
Wee done.

With that system criteria of say ##2x
How many days are you defining as resuming.
Different sauces use different days e.g. 45 days, 60 days, 90 days to define X

[Bhagwan]

Results Fri 29/6/11

TAB No.1 Lay plan

Had 5 successes from 6
For level stakes profit.

[marksto2]

Why dont you just use a Bot if you want set & forget.

Just set your price parameters & how many secs till jump & you done .

You will be laughing like a Hyena.

Try this Free Bot

BetSoftPro

Your system has been working well .
Wee done.

With that system criteria of say ##2x
How many days are you defining as resuming.
Different sauces use different days e.g. 45 days, 60 days, 90 days to define X
Good Morning Bhagwan,

I will try that Bot you mentioned. As for days I didn't take this into consideration. Anything with a formline of 2X. Just been using Centrebet free form / racecard.

[raldridge]

I have been using the standard 90 days for the spell when I enter the rules into Bet Selector.
And I use the 4% of bank for liability for staking so I cover all the bets the system comes up with even with $100 odds selections otherwise you are robbing yourself of lay collects restricting to odds under $10.
Admittedly one makes a lot less profit on the longshots but the risk is exactly the same for a longshot or an even money winner with liability betting and all bots I have looked at have the liability staking option.

Example for those that do not know about liability staking
$100 bank betting 4% of bank liability
4/99.0 this is odds minus 1 $0.04 = stake. profit= $0.04. liability = -$3.96
another example
4/1.00 = $4.00 stake, so profit = $3.80 after 5% commission is deducted and liability = $4. Betfair does not deduct commission on bets less than 10 cents because 5% works out to be less than 1 cent.

So you can see the liability is the same when the stake is worked out to the nearest cent. Liability is the amount you lose when a lay bet wins and you have to pay out to the odds less one.

On real longshots where the stake works out to be less than one cent of course no bet is placed ie 4/999 =0.004, this is for the longest odds you can lay/back on Betfair ie $1000 and the shortest is $1.01.

[Bhagwan]

Betting to Liability is great ,it is one of the the safest approaches to use.
Sometimes called betting to odds.
It also makes the least profit.

Level stakes makes the most profit , but can be the most dangerous.

Another way of bet calculation is Betting to Price
Price divided into take out amount & the difference is our profit.
It has the ability to recover faster if bitten by a short priced conveyances.

It also has the advantage that it is spreading the days book value , out more evenly so percentage wise the lower priced runners don't quite have so much put on them, than say betting to odds, like betting to liability would normally do.

It is said that that betting to price reflects more like a Bookies book except its spread over different events.

Example No.1
BTP (Betting to Price)
10.00 / $1.60 (.60/1 odds on) = O/L 6.25
If unsuccessful , lose -3.75

BTO (Betting to Odds)
10.00/ .60/1 odds on ($1.60) = O/L 16.66
If unsuccessful , lose -10.00

This works out the same percentage in this exercise , but the difference is seen when multiple horses are selected in the same race with various prices.
That's where one will see the percentage difference kick in.

The main advantage betting to price, is that it is easier to recover from losses, especially if we get bit by any odds-on & general short prices shots.
Due to the outlays being dramatically lower on short prices & much the same on the higher prices.
In effect , it spreads the Liability out more & you have a greater chance of recovering in a timely manner if selections are OK.

When doing Lay betting , one has to think in terms of Liabilty at all times.

Example No.2
BTPrice
10.00 / $20.00 = O/L .50

BTOdds
10.00 / 19/1 = O/L .52
So one can see that there is little difference in this price range.
Its the shorter price range that has the huge gap in liability.(Risk) with these 2 approaches.

If both price ranges, in above example were unsuccessful, the combined loss would have been.
BTP
3.75 + .50 = -4.25

.50 goes into 3.75 = 7.50 times
The long shots have the feel of more value to recover the loss with less bets.


BTO
10.00 + .52= -10.52

.52 goes into 10.00 = 19.20 times
Its going to be a long climb up hill relying on long shots to recover this loss

There is a massive difference of 168% in Liability to recover here.
Its telling us that it is relying heavily on the short prices to fall over & the long price selection returns would be viewed as "chump change " in comparison.
I effect , the short prices are being over bet.

Its the same problem seen in Win only betting where the short priced Favs are often over bet.

So
BTP would be the stronger of the 2 approaches to use because recovery would be smother because there is less over betting on the short prices compared to long prices.



Remember:
The lower the Liability exposure , the greater the chance of making profit on a consistent basis

[marksto2]

Bahgwan,

I would just like to say thank you for letting me onto that Betsoftpro. Seems to be easy to use and does the job ok. Just gotta get used to it and not make any erros with it.

What I find with fixed liability is that one falt stakes basis a good profit is made but on fixed liability it is not. As the longshot profits going down are minimal but when a short priced fav gets up I lsoe the full liability...This is a downfall with Betfair SP laying. The bot will resolve this issue!

With my suggested laying system below I really would not want to bet anything really more than $10 as one longshot would wipe us out potentially on a flat stakes basis.

I event tried my lay system last night on the UK races including hurdles and it was 5 selections for 5 losses and one was an odds on pop and two other were $5-6.

So it's not all longshots.

[Bhagwan]

Well done Mark.
Its going well.

I'm glad you like the Bot
It can change the way one bets completely with its own built in discipline.

Another thing re those stats given.
Centrebet call X 90 days spell.

Gary Robinson, I believe, uses 60 days as X

There may be a big difference here in results.

I feel betting .6% of bank flat stakes.
Max price 10.00
Would work best for your plan.
Good for 22-28 outs depending on price.
And there would be no fear in taking on odds-on shots like there would be if betting to Liability.

[marksto2]

Thank you Bhagwan,

I guesss the rule of X in the form is just make sure the runner is not that race fit on top of being an incosistent performer and at false odds. I didn't have any specific days in mind. Asl long as it's more than 28 days. I believe the winning % are heavily against runners since last run. I think something like 80% plus.

Today out of the Aus races there are only two selections

Albury R2 -1
Morphetville R5 - 8

[The Ocho]

Hi Bhagwan. With your betting to price, I don't suppose you know if that is available on your bot or mine (BF Bot Manager)?

Also I can't seem to work out what you mean exactly. What has the $10 got to do with it?

Also, in example 2 wouldn't you be losing roughly $10 for your 50c stake ($20/2) and not 50c?

[Bhagwan]

Well spotted.
Your right, my mistake.
Should read.

BTP
10.00 divided x 20.00 = O/L .50
Risk 9.50

BTO
10.00 divided x 19/1 = O/L .52
Risk 10.00

The point here is that there is very little difference between processes.

The big difference is when very short prices are backed to fall over, is the main point I was trying to allude to and it would take the larger prices a lot longer to pull the losses in.

There is a manual application called BetTrader Evolution
(**** Bet Trader Pro) that has this betting to price program .
They call it the Bookie Bet (Betting to price)

[marksto2]

Thank you Bhagwan,

I guesss the rule of X in the form is just make sure the runner is not that race fit on top of being an incosistent performer and at false odds. I didn't have any specific days in mind. Asl long as it's more than 28 days. I believe the winning % are heavily against runners since last run. I think something like 80% plus.

Today out of the Aus races there are only two selections

Albury R2 -1
Morphetville R5 - 8
Today's selections above both ran absolutely no where and were matched at under $10. I am yet to see a winner over the past week at least looking at this. UK races aswell.

[raldridge]

Mark's laying system got 2/2 lays today.
Since Wednesday 27/4/11 that makes the figures now
10/11 lays
90.91% lay strike ( 1 pay out in 11 lays average )
100 to 104.98
plus $0.71 on the day using the very safe 4% of bank liability staking plan
45.6% POT
3.85 total pay out odds
19.01 average odds of all lays
9 current lay win sequence
4.98 plus units

Well done and thanks for sharing this great lay plan with us.

[marksto2]

I cannot see why this won't work anywhere in the world to be honest. The fundamentals are the same.

Raldridge, UK racing might offer some good opportunities to if you are prepared to take a look over the next week or so. And also South African racing.

I use Racingandsports.com.au for the form for the above.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,

I use Bet Selector to first process the bets which I can only use on Australian
races. Using Bet Selector eliminates errors with the selections.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,
I got these UK lay bets for Sat night 30/4/11 you had better check these.
from the RacingAndSports site.

11.05pm ( Syd time ) UTTOX R1-11 Smooth Sovereign
1.10am THIRSK R5-1 Reel Buddy Star
2.25am NEWM R7-7 Zain Shamardal

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,
3/3 lays last night with your lay system on the UK races
congratulations to you, well done once again.

[The Ocho]

Well done Mark but the first pick was very high and I doubt you would lay it at that price.

11.05pm ( Syd time ) UTTOX R1-11 Smooth Sovereign BSP 220
1.10am THIRSK R5-1 Reel Buddy Star BSP 10.25
2.25am NEWM R7-7 Zain Shamardal BSP 4.29

[marksto2]

Hi Guys,

I wont be laying anything over $10 anywhere in the world.

Selections today

Penola R1 - 7 Won paying $2.90 (I got matched at this price)
Penola R7 - 11 (see it how this runs).

Cheers,
Mark

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,
That is interesting as I did not have the Penola R7-11 so I did some checking in Bet Selector and found the spell sign appears next to a runner from 84 days and more, or a 12 week period. So I have re set this in the Mark lay system.
I previously had it set to 90 days or 3 months

In the Australian newspaper the key to symbols says the spell sign indicates a spell of three months or more.

[marksto2]

Hi Raldridge,

Just using Centrbet s free race card form it shows 2X.

Was well over $10 anyway. I am not that concerned as long as it's a spell over 28 days since last run. I believe the stats after 28 days are 80% + losers!

[jazzy]

to put that into context though, say the average field size is 10 (which it is more or less) - then, on average, 90% of all horses lose each individual race.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,

Does Centrebet show the career win percentage like the R+S site does?

I have found one in the UK tonight on the R+S site

1.40am SALISBURY R6-6 Cosimo De Medici

[marksto2]

Hi Raldridge,

Yes I had a quick glance over the UK races and saw just the one selection for tonight. Looks like it may be under $10 aswell from early market viewing.

What I do use generally with Centrebet is the racecard pop up as you view each race. Just in the bottom right hand corner below the race field.

It shows the runners starts and wins and just a quick manual calc in my head tells me if under 20%. Pretty fast way of doing it. You can use the actual free formguide but the above is quicker.

Cheers,
Mark

[marksto2]

Hi Raldridge,

How did you go today and last night?

UK runner ran nowhere.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,
SALISBURY 6-6 ran 5th at $6.84
and today
PAKENHAM 3-6 ran 3rd at $9
This is using your $10 odds cap.

My betting bot has the famous Maria lay staking plan built in to the bot so this
is what I am using.
I am also using the 1x form for the lay system.
I found these two for the lay system in the UK for tonight
12.25am WINDSOR R3-5 Aurora Sky
1.55am WINDSOR R6-3 Loden

I have set the bot to lay these if the odds are $10 or less.

[marksto2]

Thanks Raldridge, I hope you are going well.

Tonight looks busy.

South Africa - Turfontein - R6-4
UK - Warwick R7-3
Curragh R6-14
Down Royal R3-4

Which bot are you using? Sounds decent. I have just started using Betsoftpro. New to bots.

Cheers,
Mark

[marksto2]

Hi Raldrige,

I've started laying each and every selection and just using a fixed liability as I have found the $10 rule restricts alot of the bets. Whether betting this way is better than a flat stakes is better time will tell. I just dont want to get caught with a large liability betting flat stakes so opted for the BEtfair SP with max liability.

Any thoughts on this approach??

I've only seen one winner over the past week and I've been looking at South African and UK racing aswell as Aus.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,

Sorry for taking so long to get back to you, I have been having problems with a new bot called Betsender and have trying to sort these out.

I have been using the Maria lay staking plan which is built in to the Betsender bot for all my lay staking.

I have also found the form of 1x is much better to use with the Mark lay system, so I have switched to it exclusively now.
It has these for tonight in the UK
2.10am CHESTER 7-6 Carter
3.45am RIPON 3-6 Sunrise Safari
3.45am RIPON 3-13 Caranbola

[marksto2]

Hi Raldridge, How are you going? All those UK runners lost.

Based on the 1x change are you still finding this going well on Aus racing at all?

I have been away for a couple of days and hadn't had a chance to look. The change to 1x form stats are very different and seem alot better.

[raldridge]

Hi Mark,
The stats for the Mark 1x from 1/1/11 only for runners up to $10 odds are
these
30/33 lays
90.91% lay strike
6.78 average odds of all lays up to $10
1 in 11 lays average loss
100 - 131.34 bank
66.0 total outlay
47.4% POT
12 current win sequence
5.27 average pay out odds
+31.34 units

Not a lot of lay bets but looks very good indeed
This afternoon I got these
3.43pm GUH 6-5 $18.0
4.45pm GEE 8-10 $34.0
6.04pm KAL 6-8 still to run

These above would be filtered out when not using those over $10.
I have not done tonight's selections yet as I have been out and have just
arrived home.

[marksto2]

Hi Raldridge,

I think if we are filtering out below $10 we will have very little bets and alot of effort in trying to find them.

I am thinking just using Betfair SP for a max liability.

I don't have a fancy bot which has staking plans or max liabilities and wouldn't feel comfortable with large liabilities where and if one of these gets up at 30 bucks plus or even greater than 10!

What I don't know is how profitable this would be using Betfair SP as the odds determine the profit ultimately.

What were the total results using Betselector for your variation? ie 1x

Does this consider UK or South African results research also?

Cheers and thanks,
Mark