unders and overs

[beton]

I am looking at the first 5 favorites. If you are betting all races each favorite in its own bank on the tote would lose. Betting the tote is always counter productive. If the favorite's tote price was $2, it would actually need $2.10 to break even. Strike rate 40.42%. If the favorite's tote price was $2.50 (34.42%) it would need $2.47 to break even. If the favorite was $3 (28.72%) then It would need $2.96 to break even. If the fav was $3.50 (24.71%) then it would need to have $3.44 to break even. At $4 (21.08%) you need $4.04 to break even. This is using my database of 43691 races.

I dug a little further $2.20 needs $2.27 and $2.30 Needs $2.25

If you could follow the tote and place on betfair at even 10% better you would have to be up long term.

[stugots]

true benton, the problem is that the narrow end of the bf market these days rarely provides the value you are looking for

[Bhagwan]

That is where the patience comes into & also in running can produce the extra edge at times .

.
I have a pensioner **** accountant client of mine who place his win bets on Betfair at 25% greater than the TAB Fav.
He often puts it in running to get his price.

He says he makes good percentages each month that are much higher than his Superannuation & keeps his brain stimulated.

[stugots]

Bhagwan love to see in running betting on Aussie racing but guess thats a while away

[The Ocho]

They HAVE in running on Aussie races but the liquidity is not very good. When you think about it though it does make sense if you are backing a particular horse (as long the price goes UP to the amount you want - as the price can come down instead in running and you would then miss out on placing a bet).

[stugots]

still very limited tho?

[beton]

Hi all
what I am alluding to here is as follows.
The FAV is selected by the masses in the tote. In the tote the price is either slightly over or under break even. It is over bet when short and also when long. The other fav's (2,3,4 &5) are all relative to the price of the favorite.
Take for instance the FAv at $2.50. It is evenly bet needing $2.47 to breack even. The chance of the second fav getting up is 21.03% translating into $4.05 to break even. The third fav's odds are 14.36% or $5.92 to break even.
the fourth 10.51% or $8.09 and 6.39% with $13.30 for the fifth fav.

Hence if we were backing the fav and it was $2.50 on the tote, we would have to get at least $2.75 or better and it would have to be with Betfair or a bookie. If we were backing 2nd favs then we would have to get $4.45 or better within the tote (underbet) or elsewhere.

I was originally looking at the third fav. The average win divvy is $6.23. I was thinking to just bet the third fav when I could get $6.23 or better. Then I realized that it is still relative to the FAV's price thus it was wrong thinking.

I can smell an advantage in there somewhere
Regards Beton

[4legs]

To give me a feel for how the favourites run, I ran the following yesterday. I know one day means absolutely nothing, but I will run it for a week or so and if there is any interest I can post them here daily.

- These figures are based on Unitab - 15 seconds before race start time.
- With at least 8 starters in the race.

All races before SR2 (in race order) were missed.

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="498"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:5302;width:109pt" width="145"> <col style="width:48pt" span="3" width="64"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2048;width:42pt" width="56"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:1755;width:36pt" width="48"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2084;width:43pt" width="57"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl74" style="height:12.75pt;width:109pt" height="17" width="145">30 Apr 2011:</td> <td class="xl65" style="width:48pt" width="64">Out</td> <td class="xl65" style="border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64">In</td> <td class="xl65" style="border-left:none;width:48pt" width="64">Prof/Loss</td> <td class="xl65" style="border-left:none;width:42pt" width="56">ROI</td> <td class="xl66" style="width:36pt" width="48">Wins</td> <td class="xl66" style="width:43pt" width="57">S/Rate</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl67" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">FIRST Favourite:</td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 54.00 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 67.40 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 13.40 </td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">25%</td> <td class="xl70" style="border-left:none">20</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-left:none">37%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl67" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">SECOND Favourite:</td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 54.00 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 4.10 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-$ 49.90 </td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-92%</td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">1</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">2%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl67" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">THIRD Favourite:</td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 54.00 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 39.60 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-$ 14.40 </td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-27%</td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">6</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">11%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl67" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">FOURTH Favourite:</td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 54.00 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 28.90 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-$ 25.10 </td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-46%</td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">4</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">7%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl67" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">FIFTH Favourite:</td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 54.00 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 83.10 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 29.10 </td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">54%</td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">8</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">15%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl67" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">SIXTH Favourite:</td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 54.00 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 35.90 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-$ 18.10 </td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-34%</td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">4</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">7%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl67" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">SEVENTH Favourite:</td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 54.00 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 18.20 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-$ 35.80 </td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-66%</td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">1</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">2%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl67" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">EIGHTH Favourite:</td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 54.00 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 77.90 </td> <td class="xl68" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 23.90 </td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">44%</td> <td class="xl70" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">5</td> <td class="xl69" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">9%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:12.75pt" height="17"> <td class="xl76" style="height:12.75pt;border-top:none" height="17">TOTAL ALL :</td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 432.00 </td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none"> $ 355.10 </td> <td class="xl71" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-$ 76.90 </td> <td class="xl72" style="border-top:none;border-left:none">-18%</td> <td class="xl73">49</td> <td class="xl75">91%</td> </tr> </tbody></table>