How to Win at the Dogs

[Barny]

You really need to know what the dog is going to do when the lids open. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

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Forget times, sectionals, weight changes for now.<o:p></o:p>

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Your dog could be in the squeeze box yet will have a decent opportunity of gaining a clear run early IF FOR INSTANCE it is a good beginner and has a mad railer on it’s inside or one that jumps well and runs wide on it’s outside. You need a clear run early to gain and keep momentum. Another thing that will determine whether your dog gets a clear run is the class of race it’s contesting. The better class races you’ll find that instead of one or two good beginners, you might have two or three good beginners and one who flies early. So the fact that your dog is a good beginner may not cut the mustard and you might find your dog who “flew” last time only did so because it was in a slightly lesser grade and got an absolutely clear run for the first 50m. It’s a different story when there’s a little more competition out of the boxes.<o:p></o:p>

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The best thing for stay at home punters to do is to develop a guide that shows how dogs have jumped and what part of the track they head to early on. Whatever they do early in their career, they’ll keep on doing it for the rest of their career.<o:p></o:p>

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A tardy beginner in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on">box</st1:Street> 1</st1:address> or even 2 might turn out to be a good bet especially if they like the rails. I cannot stress highly enough the value of concentrating on the first 20 metres.<o:p></o:p>

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[moeee]

Cranbourne Race 8

I'll be back in half an hour with a report on how the first 20 metres of this Race will fold out with each dog.

[moeee]

1 SHIRAZ COLOUR good
2 AUTUMN BLING slow
3 THANKS DES slow
4 BLUES JUDD slow
5 PURE PEACHES slow
6 DREWSTER slow
7 MARLY BOND good
8 GIGIT slow

I've got #1 as leading easily with #7 as getting across safely.
The rest are pretty evenly matched.

So whats the story now Barny?
Do I rate the Red up to its best recent Form, and the Black?

[woof43]

split times adjusted to The Meadows
1 5.128
2 5.203
3 5.123
4 5.258
5 5.164
6 5.165
7 5.298
8 5.240
Odds to be 1-2 at first turn
Winning Style Box 1st Split Rating Rank
FR 1 $4.70 3
BR 2 $14.74 5
FR 3 $4.21 2
BR 4 $147.06 8
FR 5 $4.94 4
FR 6 $4.19 1
VR 7 $108.70 7
BR 8 $39.92 6

[woof43]

1 25.351
2 25.241
3 25.391
4 25.347
5 25.244
6 25.376
7 25.453
8 25.336
Based on where they settle at the first turn.

[moeee]

1 SHIRAZ COLOUR $3.5
5 PURE PEACHES $3.8
4 BLUES JUDD $7.3
2 AUTUMN BLING $9.1
3 THANKS DES $15
6 DREWSTER $16
8 GIGIT $16
7 MARLY BOND $30

I've got the Red leading , but being run down by Pure Peaches.
#7 is up in Class and won't figure on the podium.

#2 Autumn Bling is more than capable if fit, but the weight sheet suggests it ain't ready tonight.

[woof43]

1 SHIRAZ COLOUR $3.5
5 PURE PEACHES $3.8
4 BLUES JUDD $7.3
2 AUTUMN BLING $9.1
3 THANKS DES $15
6 DREWSTER $16
8 GIGIT $16
7 MARLY BOND $30

I've got the Red leading , but being run down by Pure Peaches.
#7 is up in Class and won't figure on the podium.

#2 Autumn Bling is more than capable if fit, but the weight sheet suggests it ain't ready tonight.
Moee
#2 84 day spell, racing at the heaviest weight of it's Life - just need the betting to confirm our expectations this dog today.

[moeee]

split times adjusted to The Meadows

1 5.128
6 5.165

Odds to be 1-2 at first turn

FR 1 $4.70 3
FR 6 $4.19 1



How is the Red the Quicker animal, yet the #6 is at a shorter quote?

[woof43]

Standard deviation.

maybe the most important figure in racing and the only one used by a few.

[Barny]

mooee, with the greatest of respect that info about good, slow etc, etc is totally useless if you want to win.

You need to be far more precise than that. If you're fair dinkum and not taking the **** I can help.

[moeee]

Standard deviation.

maybe the most important figure in racing and the only one used by a few.

Hmmm.
If the #6 leads the Red to the First Turn, I'll be a deviate and eat his dump.

[moeee]

mooee, with the greatest of respect that info about good, slow etc, etc is totally useless if you want to win.

You need to be far more precise than that.

If you have the time, I'ld love to see your precise data about Race 8 at Cranbourne.
That would be the best way I could learn from you if I could see an example of what you mean.

[woof43]

Hmmm.
If the #6 leads the Red to the First Turn, I'll be a deviate and eat his dump.

you have looked at the weights for this race, we know basically what the #6 will do.

[Barny]

Forget precise data.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

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You need replays of races to study. <o:p></o:p>

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You need to know the classes, which is easy. You need to know the pattern of the dogs racing. You simply cannot bet unless you know what's going to happen out of the boxes, and you won't know what's going to happen out of the boxes UNLESS you know how each dog will jump, and what it will do next. Say you know 5 of the dogs ? do you know about the dog on the inside of your fancy. I used to get the "Yellow" guide, forgot the name of it, and it was the bible. BUT it didn't tell you just how fast the dogs were out of the boxes compared to the others. It didn’t tell you just how much speed the dog could must if it were 3rd going to the first turn. It didn’t tell you if it threw the towel in if it was checked.<o:p></o:p>

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You cannot go in half cocked because the odds are short, but there has been and always will be really good things at 3/1 going around, but you need to know how the race is going to be run, especially early.<o:p></o:p>

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[moeee]

You need replays of races to study. <o:p></o:p>



I just studied the past 5 starts of each of the animals in race 8 at Cranbourne , and I figure I have a pretty good grasp on what will happen at the start.

Can you suggest how to Wager on Race 8 at Cranbourne please Barny?

[moeee]

you have looked at the weights for this race, we know basically what the #6 will do.

This is the last question Woof.
How does looking at the weights suggest what will happen at the start of the race?

[Barny]

mooee, down a fair bit in weight compared to it's recent weight fluctations may mean it's not as quick early ..... not a really good sign. Additional weight (a little) is OK.

[moeee]

mooee, down a fair bit in weight compared to it's recent weight fluctations may mean it's not as quick early ..... not a really good sign. Additional weight (a little) is OK.

Thats strange.
I figured that a drop in weight is a clue to fitness.
And a rise in weight is due to lack of exercise , perhaps due to an injury.

No wonder I been losing so badly :(

[Barny]

mooee, a drop in weight may be that the dog has a little more stamina (not much), but the downside is, and this is generally speaking, that it's not as 'alert' or as quick early on.

All you need is a copy of formguides which show the positioning of the dog in the run, and check how it performed with any previous weight variations.

Find a dog that has early speed and plenty of ticker ..... and can run a decent time ..... and has won a decent race ..... and IF you MUST bet from the couch, this may be the best way to go. In my opinion you've got next to no hope assessing the form using form guides from home.

[moeee]

So are you gonna post a selection for Cranbourne Race 8 or not Barny?

[woof43]

Thats strange.
I figured that a drop in weight is a clue to fitness.
And a rise in weight is due to lack of exercise , perhaps due to an injury.

No wonder I been losing so badly :(

I have said enough about weights previously, to go over it again.

and maybe my other post was misinterpreted, check the #1 it's past form. go back to its sixth start you will see it's comeback from a 2 month spell its last 5 starts are "different" to its start prior to the spell.(that tells me something about this dog)
Its last start it lead by how far down the back straight, yet reaching the top turn it was a shot duck, the the eventual winner and placegetters all nearly fell over themselves at the 1st turn.
To me this dog will be a classic dog of being "overbet" and judging by how you have read the form, thats how it will be..

[lomaca]

I have said enough about weights previously, to go over it again.

and maybe my other post was misinterpreted, check the #1 it's past form. go back to its sixth start you will see it's comeback from a 2 month spell its last 5 starts are "different" to its start prior to the spell.(that tells me something about this dog)
Its last start it lead by how far down the back straight, yet reaching the top turn it was a shot duck, the the eventual winner and placegetters all nearly fell over themselves at the 1st turn.
To me this dog will be a classic dog of being "overbet" and judging by how you have read the form, thats how it will be..OK
I know nothing about dogs, don't even kow how to find their weight for the current race, but I made good profits by analysing the available
form info on the TAB under "Form".

So, Cranbourne race 8 I'll have $20 on No.5. to win.

Even if it loses I'm still ahead by a fair margin today and I treat greys as a hobby.

PS anyone point me to the weight sheet? much appreciated.

Good luck

[woof43]

OK
I know nothing about dogs, don't even kow how to find their weight for the current race, but I made good profits by analysing the available
form info on the TAB under "Form".

So, Cranbourne race 8 I'll have $20 on No.5. to win.

Even if it loses I'm still ahead by a fair margin today and I treat greys as a hobby.

PS anyone point me to the weight sheet? much appreciated.

Good luck
Good luck, too

Racing is my normal go too, but the dogs are the cream on top, they allow one to sharpen ones skills in race pattern prediction, and developing good wagering habits, the same methods employed with the dogs are the way to go with Racing.

[moeee]

http://www.grv.org.au/Statistics/WeightSheet.aspx

Can you briefly mention how you decided on #5 Lomaca, and why $20?

[lomaca]

Good luck, too

developing good wagering habits, woof,
The tales I could tell about punters' wagering habits!
(don't ask, that business is behind us now praise be God)

Let it suffice that even a system that's losing by betting on every selection can be turned into a goldmine if good records are kept and sound betting is employed.

But you can't tell punters!!
The smart ones learn by listening and by experience.

Good luck to all

[lomaca]

http://www.grv.org.au/Statistics/WeightSheet.aspx

Can you briefly mention how you decided on #5 Lomaca, and why $20?Thanks for the link.

moeee, my normal wager on horses is $200.

Greys being a hobby I though $20 is appropriate.

Cheers

[stugots]

Hmmm.
If the #6 leads the Red to the First Turn, I'll be a deviate and eat his dump.


oh oh moeee...


6 DREWSTER 17.60 3.70
5 PURE PEACHES 1.80
2 AUTUMN BLING 2.60

[lomaca]

Greys being a hobby I though $20 is appropriate.

CheersOK the last one missed it by this " " much.

race 10 Cranbourne

Nos. 1 and 5 $10 each for win.

the pink might upset, but so what?

[moeee]

oh oh moeee...


6 DREWSTER 17.60 3.70
5 PURE PEACHES 1.80
2 AUTUMN BLING 2.60

????
The RED led to the 1st turn by 3 lengths!!!!

LOMACA, you pick good.
But ain't it annoying when the #1 beat the Pink last time they met, yet in Race 10 , there was a Form Reversal of perhaps 10 lengths between them :(

[Barny]

mooee "LOMACA, you pick good. But ain't it annoying when the #1 beat the Pink last time they met, yet in Race 10 , there was a Form Reversal of perhaps 10 lengths between them"

I have NO idea about the two races you're talking about, but it's not possible that there was a "form reversal" ..... doesn't happen that bad at the dogs. different distance (have to be 150 mtrs?) ..... not the track. Checked in the run (YUP). Bad box (again not 10 lengths). Yup ..... some of these could lead to 10 lengths (at the extreme) but NOT a form reversal !

mooee, you seem to take an interest in the dogs, I don't know the race, nor the dogs in question, so maybe you could provide some info as to how the difference was 10 lengths ..... and it wasn't a form reversal.

[stugots]

????
The RED led to the 1st turn by 3 lengths!!!!



right...& here i was ready to offer up a napkin

[moeee]

mooee, you seem to take an interest in the dogs, I don't know the race, nor the dogs in question, so maybe you could provide some info as to how the difference was 10 lengths ..... and it wasn't a form reversal.

REMA ONYX beat JEDMAN last week by 1/4 of a length
Tonight JEDMAN beat REMA ONYX by 6 3/4 lengths.
Not difference of 10 lengths like I said, but 7 lengths anyway.

I guess Form reversal ain't the right word.
What I should have said was "turnaround"

[Barny]

I don't know the events you're talking about but the MAIN reason has got to be interference in races &/Or a rise (albeit slightly) in class ..... or just really crap dogs.

You can't have a FORM turnaround of 6 to 10 lengths in the dishlickers if they're reasonable dogs unless ..... checked at start, up in class and more competition in the run to the post first time around ...... (then I'd believe 10 lengths 'coz thye wouldn't have a clear run early and would have a wall of dogs infront of them down the back) ..... other than that ?

Times on their own are a bookies Superannuation Fund ..... phhhhtttt