Do Favourites Really Win More In The First 5 Races????

[marksto2]

I have heard that on average favourites win more in the first 5 races of each meeting.

Is this a fact or fallacy? Can anyone confirm any stats on this?

Cheers,
Mark

[Mark]

Yes.

Someone will have stats. The highest number of favs win the first race, and they gradually decline as you go, virtually in a line.

[marksto2]

Thank you Mark. The second question then is why this actually happens??

Race clubs program races first where the favourites win?? Who knows???

[Mark]

This has been discussed here plenty of times and the general consensus (if my memory serves me correctly) was that the bigger more open races are programmed later in the day to boost the divi's on the doubles, quad's etc.

[max]

Very interesting. So if you have a system that relies on the Fav, it would be interesting to see the stats for the 1st 5 or 6 favs and if you relied on beating the fav then check the stats for the last 4 or 5 races of the day.

I am going to check that for mine.

[beton]

The first races of a meet are usually filler races. Races to fill the time while the spectators get there and settled. They are generally the lower grade races mainly maidens. In these races one or two horses have some documented form having already raced. These get to be favorites by lack of form elsewhere. Others have never raced and unless they are outstanding generally fail. There needs to be some experience to win.

[partypooper]

I don't know that this is correct (somebody please prove me wrong) my info tells me that there is almost no discrepancy any track, any condition, any type of race, etc etc etc, winning favs remains the same and produces about 15% LOT.


Me thinks the only criteria could be in the level, of odds either pre-post or actual

[jazzy]

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showpost.php?p=225677&postcount=290

[Bhagwan]

Race 1 has the highest SR of approx 36% but worst ROI due to its very low prices.

Race 8 has the lowest SR of 24%

But it is also the race that nearly breaks even instead of losing like the other do,

due to its higher than average price offered.

You could make good money laying all <=2.00 favs in race No.1
Their SR is lower than the average of winning. in those races

[beton]

Bhagwan
Hi
I just reread you post and digested the rules again. Race #1.
I was doing the exercise anyway so I will still post. On my data 43691 races
Fav=<$2 6011 races 3044 wins 50.64%. But this is a sliding scale.
$1.50 ...60%
$1.60 ...57%
$1.70 ...51%
$1.80 ...52%
$1.90 ...45.8%
$2.00 ...41.73%
I can not test to first race but I would be limiting the bets to above $1.90.
Beton

[mattio]

Hi Beton,

Interesting results there, what about favourites in the first race >$2.00?

Cheers,

Matt.

[Bhagwan]

Sorry ...but didn't Beton just say he cant test to first race?

As stated in our posting , odds on shots have shown to perform below average in the first race for whatever reason, so its safe to Lay them & show a profit betting to Liability to maximise profit.

So , if one wishes to target Favs paying 2.20+ then the first race will produce the highest percentage compared to any of the other races.

[beton]

Mattio
sorry for not replying sooner. Tied up. I cannot test by race. The database that I have has winners by rank compared with the first ranked price to the variables of field, track, distance and weather. The criteria thought to be pertinant at the time it was made.
Do you lay the short fav in the first race? I had a quick look when we going over the 3rd fav in six system. I posted the follwing based on less than a months races.
" ocho
hi
It gets better.
I was looking at whether to miss the races with short favs = or<$2. So far 20 favs (27%) have saluted (WA Tab) There has been 14 favs = or <$2. Only 6 (43%) of these have gotten over the line. More importantly the 3rd fav has saluted 5 times when the fav has been less than even.

Should we miss short fav races? NO WAY"
In that format even at =<$1.50 where up to 70% of the favs should be winning, there were a marked discrepency.
My take is that the first races are generally filler races usually maidens. The fav is usually the horse that has run before and has a form figure against it's name. Habit make people go with something they recognise. The rest follow in their herding nature. How can you know if something that is untried or has failed before beat something similar, which is the essence of a maiden?

Would I lay the short fav in the first? I would at =>$1.50. I would do at least one of trialling to go shorter.

Like everything you should always do your own research. Beton

[beton]

Mattio
Just reread you post >$2 in the first. Any fav >$2 anytime in any race on any course. If you are laying to a liability I think that there is an upper value that makes it unviable but I am still looking at that. My workload just doubled so it may be a while. Beton

[The Ocho]

G'day guys.

As I'm still searching for a good, auto as possible, method I have bitten the bullet and checked via the Vic TAB web site what would of happened in Race 1 at all Aus venues if I had layed every fav below $2 (for $1) and backed every fav above $2 (for $1) since the 1st of May this year (so a whopping 17 days of results). Unfortunately the results weren't whopping :(

Back above 2/Lay below 2 = 94 Bets = Total +$1.22

If I had of just layed the favs under 2 (using TAB figures - which are much the same as Betfair figures i think at these low levels)

Lay below 2 = 20 bets = Total +$4.70

Both of the above figures do not take into account any Betfair commission on winnings (if using that joint).

So I just thought I would let anyone know that so far this month, it would of been a big fat waste of time. Lucky for me I only wasted about an hour on this and not 17 days :)

[mattio]

Thanks beton, don't go too much out of your way mate as it was more curiosity than anything else.

Cheers,

Mat.