First Four advice or pointers?

[Twodogs]

I am looking for advice or pointers on how to approach first fours bets. As I see it the important thing is not to take too many races on and pick the right races to take on.

The better pools are on the metro Saturdays and the better class horses are going around.

If I am on the right track I guess the questions I have are!

1/ What are the right races to take on? Should I focus on a distance range and class of race?

2/ I have been using form reading for the races I have chosen so far but at times I have been left scratching my head at how particular horses got into the first four with no form clues I can see for it to have happened.
Is doing the form the best approach or is there a better way or do I need to modify my form approach? I have looked at many different ratings etc but they don't take into account distance performance nor track condition ability among other form factors that can eliminate deadwood.

3/Should I stick to Good tracks only?

For many years I have been a win or place punter but have found racing has changed and for me I think I will enjoy the challenge of first fours. I know it wont be easy but I am more than happy to take them on but I just need to refine my appraoch and will greatly appreciate any advice.

Thanks
Twodogs

[max]

I have never done a 1st 4 but am interested in this thread. I do know that from another thread someone said that the 1st 8 horses in the odds tables win >80% of the time. There could be something there. Maybe cut any race where your 1st 4 selections are not in the top 8 from the odds?

[Twodogs]

I have never done a 1st 4 but am interested in this thread. I do know that from another thread someone said that the 1st 8 horses in the odds tables win >80% of the time. There could be something there. Maybe cut any race where your 1st 4 selections are not in the top 8 from the odds?

Hello Max,

That works well capturing winners but it is the sneak horses that appear to get into the placings from under the radar they are the ones this approach would not find unfortunately and they are the ones that add value to the first four div.


Twodogs

[max]

gottcha. so swap a little of the s/r for larger avg returns?

[Twodogs]

Yes Max,

Often I have found by using an approach which finds the winner most of the time generally within 3 to 5 selections you also get 2 or 3 of the 4 across the line but that isn't enough to get you a payout unfortunately. My aim is to get the bigger payouts where possible.

Twodogs

[luv2bet]

pick a race where you dont like the favourite and leave it out. This is generally the only time i will play the multiples. You may have a lower strike rate but when you hit there will be some fat divvies.
good luck

[Twodogs]

pick a race where you dont like the favourite and leave it out. This is generally the only time i will play the multiples. You may have a lower strike rate but when you hit there will be some fat divvies.
good luck


Thanks Luv2bet,

That I can do but would love to hook those that run in the first four unexpectly!!

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

Was doing some research on Saturdays races and noted that had you taken a random approach ( no form study) of just backing the 4 yo horses in race 6 in Brisbane as attached you would have scored and beaut set of divs. 1st, 2nd ,3rd and 4th! There were only 6 4 yo horses in the race!

PHELAN READY
KING PULSE
VARENNA MISS
LISTEN SON
ZINGALING
DEER VALLEY

Cheers
Twodogs

[Twodogs]

If only it was as easy as following a blind approach of age of horse, but it isn't. Throughout racing you see examples of a result and see it could have been covered by ranking the horses in API order or Place rank order etc but one would need a lot of patience, a big bank and some no doz as it simply would be a drag.

Twodogs