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View Full Version : Can someone please explain these stats


Barny
3rd June 2011, 11:23 AM
Runners Win S/R - Sample size - Win S/R - LOT


Less than =10% - 695,659 - 8.1% - 59.2%

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Greater than = 10% - less than = 20% - 404,947 - 9.4% - 67.4%

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Greater than =20% - less than = 50% - 240,604 - 13.4% - 75.4%

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Greater than = 50% - less than 100% -9878 - 23% - 88.3%

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100% - 8525 - 21% - 81.4%



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The above stats are on page 10 of the May edition of PPM.



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Something doesn’t add up here. The stats include every horse in every race, those who are yet to win, and all others.



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The cumulative Win S/R of horses in the various categories adds up to 74.9% whereas it should add up to 100% because it takes into account all horses !

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The average <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 /><ST1:place w:st="on">LOT</ST1:place> is 74.3% which is far less than the TAB returns.
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michaelg
3rd June 2011, 11:45 AM
Barny,

I've had a look at the pertinent article, and like you I can't understand how the total strike rate comes to 74.9% and not 100%. Even dead-heats would have to be shown in the results.

However, there must be more to it because it would be difficult to accept that such a basic error could be made, especially when a massive 25.1% of races is not accounted for.

Maybe a clarification will be made in their next edition.

Bhagwan
4th June 2011, 10:04 PM
According to those stats, one could lay all runners with a win SR of 50-99% &

make a fortune by lunchtime tomorrow, with a LOT of 88%

One has to remind ones self where the source came from , they say naive things like that all the time.

I love it when they say they were talking to a well known professional punter , who shall remain nameless.
Yeah right!
If I were a professional punter , I would not want to be caught dead talking to them.

But that's only my opinion & I agree with it.