The MEADOWS

[moeee]

RACE 1

8 STANFORD BALE $2.6
4 PROFICIENT $5
1 TANIA TWO SHOES $9
6 SHIRAZ COLOUR $12
2 BOGGY SPITFIRE $14
5 ROXY'S FLAME $14
3 DYNA BROWNLOW $20
10 FLINDOSY BALE $50

#8 STANFORD BALE is much better than these , but has to get around the First turn safely , and Box 8 makes it a little tricky.

[moeee]

RACE 2

8 RYBENBROOK $2.1
4 GAELIC BALE $3.5
5 ELMIRA BALE $14
3 LARA'S ROCK $20
6 KEEP ME COVERED $25
7 CREWSAN JAY JAY $30
1 LEVER FOOTPRINT $33
2 SELECT BREAKER $40

Either #8 RYBENBROOK gets around the turn safley , and Wins , or it doesn't , leaving only one other animal capable of winning , #4 GAELIC BALE.

[moeee]

RACE 3

7 MYSTIC APPLE $2.6
2 TESLA $5.4
5 STEPPING STONE $6.8
6 STOKED $9.6
3 JUSTIN BALE $16
4 ARVO'S JOSIE $16
8 LEKTRA ANGEL $20
10 TWO EYE CEE $80

It looks to me like #7 MYSTIC APPLE leads all the way in this.

[moeee]

RACE 4

8 EMO APPEAL $2.4
3 SHAIANE BALE $6.2
4 AMANDA BALE $7.5
2 SERENE PASSION $8.6
1 SHINY SUDOKU $16
5 SELECT OCTANE $16
7 COOL CHECKOUT $20
6 ELUSIVE LOMAR $66

A Field full of Slow Beginners means #8 EMO APPEAL crosses easily and leads all the way.

[woof43]

RACE 1

8 STANFORD BALE $2.6
4 PROFICIENT $5
1 TANIA TWO SHOES $9
6 SHIRAZ COLOUR $12
2 BOGGY SPITFIRE $14
5 ROXY'S FLAME $14
3 DYNA BROWNLOW $20
10 FLINDOSY BALE $50

#8 STANFORD BALE is much better than these , but has to get around the First turn safely , and Box 8 makes it a little tricky.

The #8 is a better dog on a 1 turn track, its had a half dozen poor runs on two turn tracks, but you'd struggle to find a bad run on a 1 turner.
1 5.051
2 5.117
3 5.168
4 5.095
5 5.083
6 5.124
7 5.265
8 5.089

There maybe 4 dogs inside of it capable of keeping it off the track, i have it (#8)about $5 to be in the first two at the first turn, so it's a bit short for mine. I think the #2 is good value to slip on the rails behind the #1 as it pushes off the track.

[moeee]

I have it (#8)about $5 to be in the first two at the first turn, so it's a bit short for mine.

A bit short for yours.
Well its also a bit short for mine as well probably.

So how do you handle the Race Wager?
I would probably not bother backing it straight out , but will take it Blonk in some Exotics.
How do you handle situations Woof43 where you have something as Favourite , but Joe Public has it even more shorter?

[moeee]

RACE 5

5 MAMIE BALE $4.4
1 BRECKENRIDGE $5
3 ARAZI $6
2 SHREDDED CHEESE $6.5
8 MOVEMBER MAC $14
4 BEAVER BAY $14
6 CLOVALLEY BOONE $16
7 BOWL ALONG $16

I have zero knowledge of #1 and #3 , so My Open Market probably reflects that , rather than an accurate representation of My Studies.
The Field in the 1st Leg of a FlexiQuaddie wouldn't be a bad idea.
Plus another with the top 4 selections.

[woof43]

A bit short for yours.
Well its also a bit short for mine as well probably.

So how do you handle the Race Wager?
I would probably not bother backing it straight out , but will take it Blonk in some Exotics.
How do you handle situations Woof43 where you have something as Favourite , but Joe Public has it even more shorter?

If investing on the exotics, this type of Favourite means you have to be very specific with your wagering, you don't go wide for third place, here is an example 1= fav. the other numbers are tote rankings, 1/all/8 =-77%
1/all/678 = -30%
its not until you drop off those longer ranked dogs do you start to head into positive territory.
Then for the 2nd position you find the negative expectations are in dogs ranked 4,5,and 6 in the betting, so your going to play either end for 2nd.

[woof43]

A bit short for yours.
Well its also a bit short for mine as well probably.

So how do you handle the Race Wager?
I would probably not bother backing it straight out , but will take it Blonk in some Exotics.
How do you handle situations Woof43 where you have something as Favourite , but Joe Public has it even more shorter?

As I do change my price when there are certain types of market forces, in some situations I will still be on those that start shorter.
Look at this dog in Race 1 #8 , its had 38 starts, its had 2 long spells in its career and its got a good win ratio, since its last spell or just prior its raced 12 times for only 1 win, so it won about 9 out of 26 starts prior, that tells me its either not been fully fit or struggled in grade/class
Win betting I can let this dog slide at its current price, but include in the exotics, in doubles i have it only with the next race 3 outsiders

[moeee]

here is an example 1= fav. the other numbers are tote rankings
1/all/8 =-77%
1/all/678 = -30%

its not until you drop off those longer ranked dogs do you start to head into positive territory.
Then for the 2nd position you find the negative expectations are in dogs ranked 4,5,and 6 in the betting, so your going to play either end for 2nd.

Are these conclusions determined by Mathematical Laws , or are they observed situations caused by erroneous behaviour by Joe Public , brought on by poor knowledge of Mathematics as demonstrated by many Members of Many Forums.

I figure the latter.

My own method would be more based around how I handicapped the Race.
Not in my wildest dreams would I consider placing My 2 Worst animals in 2nd position in my exotics.
That simply negates the hard work involved in the study.

[moeee]

I do change my price when there are certain types of market forces


I do all the wrk prior to the Race being run.
I assess all the relevant Factors and compare dogs against dog.
Well not ALL the Factors , otherwise my brain will fry its already reduced capacity.

But what is it you are doing with these "Market Forces".
What are these "Market Forces composed of?
I've always wondered why animals often start as short as they do on occasion.
Who the ******** is unloading such an amount of money on unraced Greyhounds in Maidens that they often start at Odds On?

I mean , I could find a hundred Races of better viability of placing a Wager.
Or am I blinker-biased by the Facts and Figures in a Form Guide.

[moeee]

RACE 6

1 ALLOWANCE $2.6
5 MAGIC DASHER $4.8
2 LEKTRA BOB $7.3
4 ED PACINO $8.2
6 PURE SHOW $10
3 DYNA SHAYLA $60
10 FREDDY FLATHEAD $75
7 ALLEN EDDIE $90

The Winner comes from the top 2 selections in this.
2nd from the top 3
And then there are only another 2 animals capable of figuring within 7 lengths of the Winner.
Excellent Flexi4 Race.

[woof43]

Are these conclusions determined by Mathematical Laws , or are they observed situations caused by erroneous behaviour by Joe Public , brought on by poor knowledge of Mathematics as demonstrated by many Members of Many Forums.

I figure the latter.

My own method would be more based around how I handicapped the Race.
Not in my wildest dreams would I consider placing My 2 Worst animals in 2nd position in my exotics.
That simply negates the hard work involved in the study.

you know what those 2 worst animals, may be the ones that suffer the least amount of interference because they are behind the field at the first turn and can their own race.

[moeee]

you know what those 2 worst animals, may be the ones that suffer the least amount of interference because they are behind the field at the first turn and can their own race.

It would take a helluva lot of interference for a camel to run 2nd to PharLap.
When I said My 2 Worst , I meant , like , $50 shots.
And $50 shots when the rest of the Field are less than say , $12.

[moeee]

5 Winning top selections out of 6 Races and I'm losing - GO FIGURE!! :(