Why Bother With Ratings People?

[marksto2]

The bookmakers do the ratings and there opening prices should be the most accurate market to a the runners chances. If you just adjust the prices % to under 100% and bet the overlays then you have the answer.

So why bother with ratings? The bookies such as IAS keep those horses well under the odds that they know are likely to win. They employ people to rate and ensure the most accurate prices are put up.

[moeee]

Pretty hard to argue with that Logic.
Just another reason why you can't win at Punting.

But thats only about WIN ONLY Betting.
With the Exotics , there are discrepancies and are exploited by Professional Punters.

[Chrome Prince]

Couple that with market movements and getting the best price....and you have a recipe for gold ;)

[lomaca]

In view of these profound and probably deeply felt statements I suppose I have to pack up and slink away, and give back all the profits I received over many years doing my own rating.

I don't know the OP but I'm surprised by CP endorsing his comment.

Each to his/her own I always maintained, not so these days when PC thinking encroaches punting even.

But C'est la vie!

[moeee]

In view of these profound and probably deeply felt statements I suppose I have to pack up and slink away, and give back all the profits I received over many years doing my own rating.


Or perhaps get in touch with IAS with your resume in hand.
Steady income with no risk and you be doing what you love , and getting paid for it.

[marksto2]

I can tell you first hand that bookmakers at Randwick in the bar areas punch in IAS rated prices! This is what is put up for each race on their boards. The % obviously is set in the bookies favour however this is what they use.

Have I got a good case here???

[lomaca]

I can tell you first hand that bookmakers at Randwick in the bar areas punch in IAS rated prices! This is what is put up for each race on their boards. The % obviously is set in the bookies favour however this is what they use.

Have I got a good case here???Fail to see how it relates to doing one's own rating?

[marksto2]

why bother doing ratings when these guys have paid heaps to get the best and most accurate for each horse in a race??

Bookies don't give any away in their opening prices and are the most accurate guide. It's in the tote market that then value can be found.

[lomaca]

why bother doing ratings when these guys have paid heaps to get the best and most accurate for each horse in a race??

Bookies don't give any away in their opening prices and are the most accurate guide. It's in the tote market that then value can be found.I don't think we are in the same universe as far as punting goes.
Follow the bookies-IAS then, and have a prosperous life.

Good luck

[Twodogs]

Human nature makes us look for the easy way. I can tell you a little effort will beat the markets but only if you do some work.

Why bother doing any work??? Well you just might learn something!! I have been guilty of being lazy and looking for the easy way. Does it work ?? No not for me! The harder you work the LUCKIER YOU GET!

Twodogs

[Shaun]

In the past i have done my own ratings and find it a challenge to beat them and price runners well under there price, i have moved on to other areas but still think my ratings can make money, take any race from today over a rating of 70 and i can give you a run down.

[Neil]

The bookmakers do the ratings and there opening prices should be the most accurate market to a the runners chances. If you just adjust the prices % to under 100% and bet the overlays then you have the answer.

So why bother with ratings? The bookies such as IAS keep those horses well under the odds that they know are likely to win. They employ people to rate and ensure the most accurate prices are put up.
Why bother doing ratings when all ratings are identical?

Why bother doing ratings when all ratings have the same horses in the same rated order?

Why bother doing ratings when all ratings that give dollar odds price assessments have the same horses in the same rated order with the same dollar odds price assessments?

Need I say more?

[axledog]

ask moeee , he knows everything!

[gunny72]

Spot on Neil. I believe that overall bookies and punters get the prices right for a race (it has been shown that horses win in proportion to their starting price). It is pointless following the same selections as everyone else, and most rating methods end up with very similar odds as has been pointed out here.

But remember too, a horse's rating price is just a measure of its chance of winning a race. A top rated horse with a rating of $3 say, in a market framed to 100% (in practice this most likely would be put up by the bookies as $2.50) indicates the horse has a 1 in 3 (33%) chance of winning, however, there is a 2 in 3 (67%) chance of the winner coming from one of the other horses.

The real skill in punting is to find the winner from the other 67% that most other punters overlook and where TAB overlays appear.

[moeee]

ask moeee , he knows everything!

No , Not EVERYTHING!!!
But what I do know , I'm prepared to share.

A Professional Gambler wrote this about the LOSING PUNTERS

"His attitude toward turf speculation can best be summed up as "fun and games." He often resents any suggestion which deprives him of making the 101 blunders common to many turf enthusiasts"


I enjoy Rating Greyhounds.
I do not make Profit in my Wagering , but have not lost for over 3 or so years now.
I manage to beat the 15% takeout , and that is all at the minute.

[axledog]

No , Not EVERYTHING!!!
But what I do know , I'm prepared to share.

A Professional Gambler wrote this about the LOSING PUNTERS

"His attitude toward turf speculation can best be summed up as "fun and games." He often resents any suggestion which deprives him of making the 101 blunders common to many turf enthusiasts"


I enjoy Rating Greyhounds.
I do not make Profit in my Wagering , but have not lost for over 3 or so years now.
I manage to beat the 15% takeout , and that is all at the minute.Really? Am i missing the point in all this?

[Bhagwan]

Ozracetools have a handy program for resetting the book percentage.

So
Punch in all the Bookies prices which will come to approx 115-130% on opening prices
Then make the program set it to your percentage, say 100%

This 100% tries to reflect the horse's true chance of winning, if the bookies prices are accurate

Then maybe use Betfair to get the overs for win betting .

Now if we find ourselves getting bit, profit wise, along the way, it tells us that the general public is more accurate at accessing the markets chance of winning.

In that case , one maybe better off going for the unders.
e.g. Adjusted Bookies accessed price $4.50 then only bet it if its under this price on Betfair.

That's the general idea .

One will usually find that it swings from unders one day to overs getting up the next day, so one has to try & view these things over a number of days to see which is the more profitable.

The late great Don Scott did extremely well at doing his own ratings & betting the overs.
He would bet his ratings to price set to a to a fixed return.
E.g. His accessed price say $3.50 into his Return figure of say $1000
O/L $286
The horse he is targeting could actually be 7.00 with the Bookmakers.
7.00 x Bet $286 = Ret $2002

He would usually bet between 2-5 runners a race.

[moeee]

Really? Am i missing the point in all this?

I guess you are.
There are a few there.

Honesty, Humility,Acceptance to start with.

[AngryPixie]

The late great Don Scott did extremely well at doing his own ratings & betting the overs.Bhagwan

I fear things have changed significantly since Don Scott's heyday. The ease of access to information; fast, cheap computing; and, the globalisation of betting markets makes for a very different climate. The big over's of the past are now long, long gone.

Time for the new paradigm. Tell me first when you find it ;)

[jose]

Just be a bit wary of using unofficial opening prices.
Things may have changed, but, when MR was in charge of IAS the prices on the website and the price that they were prepared to bet you for any substantial amount were 2 very different things.

[beton]

Has racing changed?
I have used several tipster services over the years to varying results. Some of them have stopped their services citing that it is now too hard to pick a profitable winner. Some have amended their recommendations even to the point of saying that their 3rd and 4th pick would return better money. They have all commented in one form or another that (1) value has gone and (2) class has gone since the EF.
One comment has me curious. The prices have gotten shorter. On the tote this can only mean that the field has gotten longer. On Betfair this means that people are accepting unders.
The question is "Has the prices gotten shorter?" And what are the ramifications of this?

[TheSchmile]

I think using ratings in conjunction with extensive punting knowledge is a powerful combination.

Entwine these tools with patience and you're on a winner.

I use ratings which I have followed over many years now and know at which tracks they do particularly well and which tracks they do not.

I focus on horses that have performed at the distance, in the conditions and work from there.

An example at Eagle Farm on Saturday was Willy Jimmy and St Germaine. By my ratings they had virtually identical top ratings at the distance, yet Willy Jimmy opened at $6 and St Germaine $3.50. The market corrected a little before start time, however a nice collect was made.

It's not an exact science, however any hardened punter knows that this game is almost never predictable in the short-term, that's why we love it!!

For finding value, I recommend 'betting like a christian'... forgive your horses misgivings for one run, look for unlucky last start runs and don't expect horses to be robots. Some are warhorses, with the class to win when they are unfit, however the vast majority peak once during a prep, then need a few more runs to recover and peak again. Some only peak the once in a prep. EASY. Ha ha

I don't agree that all ratings are the same, however you can bet that if the majority of ratings services all have a certain horse top rated, there will generally be no value in backing them.

If nothing else marksto2 you've created some healthy heated debate, so well done.

Final thought: Bookies are people, they also make mistakes.

The Schmile

[AngryPixie]

The question is "Has the prices gotten shorter?" And what are the ramifications of this?Beton, I've no data on whether favourites for example are starting at shorter prices these days. Anecdotally yes perhaps, but the three factors I mentioned would contribute to the market being more accurate or at least adjusting itself more rapidly.

[moeee]

By my ratings they had virtually identical top ratings at the distance, yet Willy Jimmy opened at $6 and St Germaine $3.50. The market corrected a little before start time, however a nice collect was made.


A nice collect was made and a "Aren't a clever boy am I" was probably thought.

But don't forget , you had both horses equal , and in your eyes , either of the 2 could have won.

Because you have found an Overlay , that doesn't make it try any harder, or make it more likely to win.

I would have perhaps purchased a Quinella with the 2 animals as a Saver bet just in case.

[TheSchmile]

A nice collect was made

Fair play Mooee, I did sound a like a bit of a ********er there.

It was a nice collect however.....ha ha

I did cover with an exacta, however I do appreciate your advice, imparted in such a friendly manner. So thank you.

The Schmile

[moeee]

Fair play Mooee, I did sound a like a bit of a ********er there.

It was a nice collect however.....ha ha

I did cover with an exacta, however I do appreciate your advice, imparted in such a friendly manner. So thank you.

The Schmile

OMG!!!
Somebody accepted my comment without getting offended.
Not only that , but actually thanked me for it!!

You weren't sounding like a ********er in your post.
You sounded very sensible.
But I just wanted to alert you that when you begin to be proud of yourself too much , you start to get cocky , and then forget to continue working hard and feel that the winners will keep coming in regardless of effort.

I should know.
It happened to me straight after Lomaca warned me about getting cocky - And I ignored him :(

[Gerry]

I wonder how many of those blokes that bag the ratings approach to finding a winner would be prepared to stick their necks out and tell us what they fancy before the race starts?

Anyone can pick winners after the ball,

Gerry

[gunny72]

Ratings are good if used as a pointer to horses you might otherwise overlook. For example look at the API of Torio's Quest (EF race 8) compared with the others in the field and you realize just how well it was placed. (I'm kicking myself because I did not back it.) Also look at the win% of Trusted Partner (EF race 2) and its first up and win distance record. (I did back this one though.)

You don't need to pay for ratings. Just consider top api, win% and place% and fresh horses and make your own decision from there. Note I have left out form. I have tried for years to combine these into an overall rating but to no avail. In fact I found that there is no correlation between any two of these factors. For example, in general high win% does not imply high place % or high API and combining these can have a negative effect on overall ratings by cancelling each other.

In the end the punter has to put in the effort. To this end I am now concentrating on one state only.

[moeee]

In fact I found that there is no correlation between any two of these factors. For example, in general high win% does not imply high place % or high API and combining these can have a negative effect on overall ratings by cancelling each other.


Funny you should say that.

I was into AFL Betting some years ago.
I did some research on Football Tipsters.
From the Newspapers I got all the reults of Tipsters and found there were perhaps 6 or 7 that either were Profitable or at least fared a lot better than Most.
I tried combining these tipsters selections somehow, but no matter what I tried, I could only turn these Profitable Tipsters into Losers.

Any ability that one Tipster had seemed to be cancelled out by the other , rather than reinforcing each other.

[Shaun]

Here is a race for tomorrow, scratching do impact my ratings so we will see.

[moeee]

Here is a race for tomorrow, scratching do impact my ratings so we will see.

Could you post the File again in Excel 2003 Format please Shaun?
I would love to see your stuff.
Your work is always an excellent guide.

[Shaun]

I always for get about you,lol

Notice the size difference in the files, that's why 2011 is good for uploading.

[moeee]

Thank you Shaun.

You must be the top person at giving away useful things for Free, as opposed to giving away useless things for Free as some members do - HELLO??? did someone mention my name? :(

[Shaun]

It does not show my join date but i must be getting to almost 8 years on this forum and in that time i have learned a great many things from a few good people most of whom we don't see here any more.

I don't mind giving away sheets and stuff because it helps me with learning more of what i need to know and if i crack it big time with some of my ideas it won't be the only thing i give away.

[moeee]

I always for get about you,lol

Notice the size difference in the files, that's why 2011 is good for uploading.

Yes I see.

Shaun.
If I managed to get hold of excel2011 , would I be able still to download and run all the older excel programs like from even before 2000?

[Shaun]

Yes i have no problems, i only have some issues when saving as 2003 i get a screen explaining all the errors and how to fix them lol as some thing are different but can open older workbooks.

the copy i have is a trial version with 6 months worth of extensions, by that time i have formatted the pc and reloaded it again, oops did i say that

[Shaun]

Take a look at this, it is not illegal to do this as it is built in to the software.

http://devonenote.com/2010/05/exceed-office-2010-trial-period/

[moeee]

Here is a race for tomorrow, scratching do impact my ratings so we will see.

Didn't watch the race, don't follow horses, but the results suggest you were a bit stiff with a HUGE Overlay running second.
No Congratulations, but certainly a good effort and definitely an honourable mention.
Quinella wouldn't have been too hard to get as they were both in your top 5.

If you ain't a Winning Professional Gambler Shaun , you should be.
And deserve to be, if that is your wish.

[Shaun]

I wish i was a Pro but my biggest downfall is sticking to something long term, the ratings i posted have there good and bad days but i no longer follow them.

The thing about ratings is knowing what to do with them as you can't back them all, some will say back the overs but when i have a runner rated at say $13 and the best i can get is $10 and it still wins that makes no sense to me, i would rather look at the percentages of each selection and if overall they are winning that's fine with me.

i don't know why i can't stick with one system, take my current method of the "Stable Runners" starts out good has a recent slump then pulls a winner at $34 even that i am starting to get bored with but will keep it going for now.

i have not made any changes to the ratings in a long time and are the same ones i used on another site to place 2nd in that comp for a $1500 prize, i have found they work best with higher class races, these are the races i would have chosen from today.




Belmont Park Race 5
10. Avonmore Terrace $3.25
4. Triple Ken $5.23
Belmont Park Race 8
7. Zip Code $1.54
1. McScar $12.15
Canterbury Race 5
2. Plaisance $2.44
6. She's A Rock Star $5.36
Canterbury Race 6
7. Ultimate Gaze $2.20
3. Dream Supreme $4.78
Canterbury Race 7
7. Fraganza $1.95
9. Blakey Boy $7.24
Sandown-Hillside Race 3
3. Our Pride And Joy $3.32
2. Sean Baile Mor $3.35
Sandown-Hillside Race 4
6. Graphic $2.20
3. Justsay Sumthink $6.42
Sandown-Hillside Race 5
7. Devilenko $3.03
3. Our Nkwazi $6.58
Sandown-Hillside Race 6
8. Buddy Amazing $4.69
16. Pull No Punches $4.94
Sandown-Hillside Race 7
7. Gossip Girl $3.11
2. Reverberates $4.38
Sandown-Hillside Race 8
2. Mr Make Believe $1.93
5. King Cobweb $5.62

[moeee]

Nice Post Shaun.

I'll try to help you with some comments.
Please don't think that I am trying to belittle you.
It seems Michaelg did when I tried to help him , and now he ran away.
As did Lomaca , although I'm not sure , but we may have kissed and made up.If so , History says its only temporary.
And don't think that I am trying to promote myself as being GOD's Gift to Mankind.
I genuinely wish to help - Nothing else. (well , maybe a little bit ego)

Not sticking with something long term is not your biggest downfall.
The reason you drift away , is because it no longer satisfies your needs.
Even if the system is providing a Profit, it is quite easy to drift away , because I get the feeling, based on the amount of research and learning that you do Shaun, that the actual developing of the System is what actually floats your boat the most.
I'll bet you Tinker and Tweak your Systems forever.
I don't mean removing bugs, but trying to get a better bottom line.
And I figure that is when you become disenchanted with your system , when the end of the line has been reached.
When there is no further improvement you can provide.
I'm figuring that you are trying to come up with a System that works all the time.
You need to accept that some Races you just plain gonna get wrong , and no amount of tinkering is gonna find the Winner of those Races.

I do Greyhound Markets , and I also have trouble trying to decide on the correct way to Wager using them.
If Your Markets are worth their salt , then the Profits will come , as long as only the Overlays are bet.

No , I'm not able to make a Profit as yet , but I have been complemented by a number of Punters that being square and not actually losing after 2 or 3 years is quite an effort.

[Shaun]

I will agree 100% although the bottom line is important more consistent profits are what i am after because i know if i can get a similar profit week in week out then all it would take is to increase the size of the bets to a level i am happy with.

[TWOBETS]

Hey Saun,
I'm petrified when Moeee is lurking on a thread. He takes no prisoners! Still, I do believe he calls it as he sees it so here goes.

The reason I feel I want to try to contribute is because I get the impression you are on the cusp of getting this game sorted and have the strength to see it through.
If you are after consistency, (the only item I ever look for in punting) why don't you try the Twobets path. It takes a couple of years but it does end up in the expensive seats.

Rather than spend all day betting on everything that moves, sort out a couple of bets that really do look good to you. No more. Just a couple or three to four on Saturdays. Don't look for big dividends. Look towards big wagers.Then implement a proper growth strategy ( % of bank or something) and let the magic of compounding do it's work. After six months or so you will be gobsmacked at how large your wagers are AND at how the stress factor has vanished.

Is it exciting? No. You're outlook matures with your profits.
Is it fun? No. More like work or a business.
Is it consistent. Straight as an arrow.

[Shaun]

Using your ideas and looking at the races i posted and taking the best 2 races for the day being MR4 RB89 and MR7 Open both my top selections won paying $3.10 & $2.60 maybe i will start there.

[ixlat0]

Shaun!

i had a look at your work and found it very interesting -- in particular, i was wondering how you derived your market?

this is getting off topic so you could pm me elsewhere if you're happy to discuss it

take care!

[Shaun]

you could e-mail shaun2166 at hot mail dot com