Can this work?

[max]

Hi all

I have been a member of this site for a few good months now and have been involved some awesome discussions and met some really great members through those discussions.

But I have been playing around with systems on paper for over 10 years, on and off for months at a time.

My true goal is to find 4 systems that can return $10 average every time I run them with the intend that if 2 of them fail on any 1 day, I still make $20 profit for the day. This should be based on a POT of around 25% each, so invest $40, make $10 on each.

To date, I have found some cool systems but I just cant seem to get them to return 25% profit consitently enough or at all.

So, do you think this is possible? Or is the golden egg most punters are chasing? Is anyone actually making a nice regular and consistent profit?

[max]

BTW, I am not giving up. Just expressing a few words of frustration in an attempt to see if I am on a path that is actually attainable.

[moeee]

If you ain't managed in 10 years , you probably same as everyone else.
I ain't managed in 30 :(

But then again, some people look for ghosts.
Others look for alien Life Forms.
Some for GOD.
A lovely woman.

Its just the way things are - some things plainly don't exist.

[TWOBETS]

Hi Max,
Can't shed any light on your 25% systems sorry. To me 25% would be a total impossibility.

What I did want to say was what I was trying to steer another great forum member towards. If you're after consistency then I believe this goes in reverse probability to dollars earned. I strive for consistency always and on weekly basis am always ahead.

Perhaps you too could trim your wager numbers down to just the cream and concentrate on a proper % of bank staking plan.

I believe as long as you keep tweaking around with different systems your bank will have no stability.

[Shaun]

I would agree with Twobets that you need to aim for a realistic amount, like 10% pot so if you bet 100 you want to get back 10, this may bot sound like much but if you could get this on a weekly basis as an average then you can double your bank every 7 weeks.

I don't see any issues with running a couple different systems would be like a portfolio but you don't want to be committing to much of the bank on any given day, so you would want each system to be picking 4 or 5 runners each.

Set your bets to a percentage of bank say 2% with the view to adjusting this at the end of the day, some say you should adjust after each bet but i find this can have more bad points than good unless you are hitting 50% or going after very short prices.

[Bhagwan]

A very safe method, is betting .5% of bank.

Re-adjust bet up or down at the beginning of each new day.


The magic figure is 3.5% a day is possible if you know what you are doing.

1-1.5% is more achievable ,if betting every day

It starts getting really hard to win more than 5% a day on an ongoing basis .

Go for any greater than 5% & one will usually find that they will give all their profits back & some.

So don't be surprised if you gets bit going for more on an on going basis.

[max]

Wow! Thought I would have had a much more positive response. I thought 25% POT was moderately achievable for the determined punter. Not that I have been able to do it yet. Now I feel really deflated. My goal was to make 50 a day regularly.

But then I suppose those who may actually be doing this and more prob keep their mouths shut for whatever reason.

Looks like I need to take a break for a while.

Should anyone wish to tell me their story less publicly, feel free to drop me a line at max stuff 09 @ gmail . com

[Bhagwan]

Making ones first bet no higher than .5% of bank.

Target profit 3.5% of bank

3.5% a day x 7 = 24.5% a week.

All you have to now is just pick the runners that you know are going to win.

Its as easy as that.... or is it?

If you cant do 3.5% or even 1.0% on a regular basis , you stand no chance at 25% every day
Which equates to 175% a week.

Most Professional Punters will tell you that they are happy to hit 5-7% profit on turnover , that's if their losses in between are not too great.
And they do get losses.

Try & remember that Punting is not an exact science.

Its forever changing like the sands of the desert.

It can be done.

If you don't have the discipline or time to sit in front of a screen all day , then use a Bot to do the betting for you.

There is a system that has been making 50% profit on turn over, that I invented with my own brain ,that is listed on the forum called ....
Bhagwan's first 6 races.

You may like to have a run with this for a month , betting every day.

[beton]

3rd in six
June 15 $44
June 16 $6
June 17 $165
June 18 $60
June 19 $79
June 20 $141
June 21 $30
June 22 -$114
June 23 -$59
June 24 $150
Start with $10 per selection and add a $1 each winning day. Get your best price. One trick is to look at the tote and see which is the third before all the money goes on in the last minute and get your best odds on that horse. Beton

[TheSchmile]

Hi Max,

Don't be disheartened.

Aim for 5-15% POT, study hard and be patient.

I don't use systems, however I do use a systematic approach to first find my selections and from there, seek value prices.

Punting is one of the hardest games around, mostly because of the psychological rollercoaster ride that winning and losing runs provide.

I'd suggest thinking in winning months rather than winning days.

Lastly, If you're looking for consistency I'd suggest betting each-way or 2 horses per race when the value is there. Often one of your selections will be affected by pace, jockey, track or trouble in running issues, so backing more than one in a race can alleviate some of these problems.

Hope this is of some assistance and good luck today if you're placing some investments!


The Schmile

[partypooper]

G'day max, I felt compelled to respond as I have been chasing the golden egg for many years, it took at least 40 years to finally accept that "Target" or cover to win , or stop at win, IN THE LONG TERM is NOT the way to go. It does work for a while , and can work for a LONG while but always in the end mathes will cut in and clean you out, winnings and banks galore.

I still can't really call myself a "PROFESSIONAL" punter as I do not derive all my income from the punt, BUT I do aspire to that , and for the last 5 years (out of 48 years punting) I HAVE made a profit.

In my case I am very happy with around 4.5% on turnover, but I would quickly say that, I only HOPE that will continue, I hope ,but I don't really know.

If I could stick my neck out, I would say that 25% POT is a total pipe dream.

If anyone is achieving it LONG TERM then they have privy to info that I definitely don't.

Now having said all that I have shown at least twice on this forum, that with determined staking you can turn a profit.

I have said several times that nearly all systems "work".......... but not all the time, (the knockers refused to acknowledge that I added that bit)

What I am getting at, is there is a case for following a systematic approach
with an aggressive staking plan, a "making hay while the sun shines attitude" i.e. you know it will fail eventually BUT you are risking a given amount chasing a freak run that you can capitalise on. another way of thinking!!

[Mark]

I'd be happy with 2% !!!!!

Currently 1.65% this year.

[domenic]

Long term (last 6 years) I am at 7.9% POT. If this continues I will be more than happy. I must say also it took me 20 years to get to this stage.

[max]

Okay then. I guess punting aint for me. If all I can possible hope to get long term is a mere 5% then I am better off using a bank account for that and have less risk and waste less time.

[moeee]

But the thing is , it is 5% on Turnover.
It is quite possible that you could turn your Betting Bank over perhaps 10 times in a year , and there is your Target of 50% Profit.

[max]

I see what you mean, but is the risk and time worth the return?

=> Bhagwan, I have been tracking the 1st 6 races system for the past couple of weeks every day. I have been tracking the 3rd fav at Morning, 10mins out, 5mins out, 1min out, 0min out and Closed and I have found 1 works better than the others. But even so it is still not returning a good profit as a couple of shocker days this week took all the winnings from last week. I am keen to find some filters to apply to increase S/R as a lot of the races are lost by the 1st fav or 5th fav getting up.

Has anyone following that system found filters such as odds, track conditions, metro vs country or the like help? Or even day of the week. I found Thurs and Sat particualarly nasty for this system.

[partypooper]

I'd be happy with 2% !!!!!

Currently 1.65% this year.

G'day Mark, now I'd be happy with 1.65% with your turnover and no risk component as well!

To achieve 4,5% I just can't get the turnover, and yes I've tried "just increasing stakes" and the divvies were definitely affected even with mere $500 bets, especially midweek. in short the idea fell flat, until I swapped back to $200 bets maximum, that's why I am always on the lookout for another angle.

Max, one area that you don't seem to understand is this say you have $10,000 in the bank and you're getting 5% so have an income of $500, now if that $10,000 were applied to a betting strategy making 5% ON TURNOVER,with say 10-12 bets a day or about a 100 bets a week @ $100 each, then you are turning over $500,000 year (roughly) x 5% = $25,000. PLUS don't forget that the majority of that bank will be sitting in a deposit account anyway still earning 5% P/A, most of the time anyway.