xanadu
24th January 2003, 03:44 PM
A method I have successfully utilised over many years is backing the standout runners in set weight races)that includes WFA, 3 Y-O, 2 Y-O, Fillies and Mares ...etc. The logic here is that the handicapper is not able to influence the weight carried by outstanding gallopers, which on paper, appear to have a second to none chance of winning the race in question.
In these races, I look for those events which appear to have only two possible chances. To capitalise on this fact I invest on these two apparent standouts by backing both in a manner similar to dutch book betting....
eg. fav 2/1
2nd fav 3/1
in order to maximise returns whichever horse, trotter, dog..wins, we add 1 to the price and "dutch book" our bet.
eg. fav 2/1 + 1 = 3
2nd fav 3/1 + 1 = 4
we now inverse the bets,
ie $3 is bet on the second fav and if successful returns $12(ie. $3x3/1 = 9 + $3 invested = $12 return. Similarly, we also invest $4 on the fav at 2/1 and if successful returns $12(ie. $4 x 2/1 = $4 invested = $12 return.
Therefore, in line with my approach, as a percentage punter, I have backed two horses in this race, hopefully backed the winner, outlayed $7 and whichever one wins, I return $12 for a $7 outlay, representing a percentage return of 71.42%on investment. This approach(ie. by backing two runners), usually negates the chance of a long losing sequence, therefore protecting capital.
Again, I acknowledge, this approach is not for everybody but those who wish to take their betting seriously will see the merit in this strategy. As I have said repeatedly, the returns are" btbi" - "better than bank interest".
In these races, I look for those events which appear to have only two possible chances. To capitalise on this fact I invest on these two apparent standouts by backing both in a manner similar to dutch book betting....
eg. fav 2/1
2nd fav 3/1
in order to maximise returns whichever horse, trotter, dog..wins, we add 1 to the price and "dutch book" our bet.
eg. fav 2/1 + 1 = 3
2nd fav 3/1 + 1 = 4
we now inverse the bets,
ie $3 is bet on the second fav and if successful returns $12(ie. $3x3/1 = 9 + $3 invested = $12 return. Similarly, we also invest $4 on the fav at 2/1 and if successful returns $12(ie. $4 x 2/1 = $4 invested = $12 return.
Therefore, in line with my approach, as a percentage punter, I have backed two horses in this race, hopefully backed the winner, outlayed $7 and whichever one wins, I return $12 for a $7 outlay, representing a percentage return of 71.42%on investment. This approach(ie. by backing two runners), usually negates the chance of a long losing sequence, therefore protecting capital.
Again, I acknowledge, this approach is not for everybody but those who wish to take their betting seriously will see the merit in this strategy. As I have said repeatedly, the returns are" btbi" - "better than bank interest".