Lines of Betting (LOB)

[Try Try Again]

Let me start by saying this information is based on Open Class races in Melbourne from 3rd July 2007 to 18th June 2011. The line of betting is taken from the Saturday Herald Sun Pre-post market. The total number of Open Class races was 569.

LOB....Wins....%......Total
.1.....189.5..33.3....33.4%
.2.......97....17.0....50.4%
.3.......77.5..13.6....64.0%
.4.......58.....10.2....74.2%
.5.......60.....10.5....84.7%
.6.......34.......6.0....90.7%
.7.......25.......4.4....95.1%
.8.......11.......1.9....97.0%
.9........7........1.2....98.2%
10.......4........0.7....98.9%
11.......5........0.9....99.8%
12.......1........0.2...100.0%

Interestingly,if you backed $1 on each horse on each line of betting (LOB) there are some lines which are returning a positive result.

LOB....Outlay....Collect......+/-
.1.......$637.....$681.65...+$44.65
.2.......$686.....$572.40...-$113.60
.3.......$713.....$533.70...-$179.30
.4.......$737.....$595.40...-$141.60
.5.......$754.....$882.10...+$128.10
.6.......$741.....$593.20...-$147.80
.7.......$656.....$529.10...-$126.90
.8.......$572.....$204.20...-$367.80
.9.......$443.....$255.50...-$187.50
10......$279.....$280.50...+$1.50
11......$167.....$312.00...+$145.00
12.......$97.......$73.50...-$23.50

The win dividends are based on Sportsbet Citybest+ i.e. best of SP and the 3 totes.

[moeee]

Flaming. You have been TOUd for this post. No more warnings. Please read the Forum Terms of Use. Thank you.

[beton]

All within the normal strike rates for each rank all races except #5 which is normally around 7.5%.

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for that Try.

Like all stats , its a starting point , just like Ratings are.
Ratings on their own usually show a greater LOT than those shown here with the Pre-post market.

Its the filters one uses that can put them into profit.

When I did the exercise some time ago on 30,000 races.

Its SR was approx 80% Top 5

LOT -5%

The sample I did had the fav at 30%

Interestingly, the 5th fav had the lowest LOT at the time.

Our live market results for the same races ,at the time showed a 85% SR
for 1-5 favs

Your sample shows a small loss of -7.4% LOT
Which is not a bad result.
Delete the correct one & your in profit.
If one ran a 2nd sample of the same size , the SR may be similar but divs will change resulting in the 5th Fav & 1st fav possible showing a negative figure.


That remark...
"Your stats are meaningless."
That's plainly RUDE.
It gives the strong impression that it was intended to be insulting.

That's the type of input that turns possible posters right off!
Some decorum & humility would be in order next time.

[moeee]

Flaming. You have been TOUd for this post. No more warnings. Please read the Forum Terms of Use. Thank you.

There appears to be a vendetta against me at this Forum.

I have good News for everyone.

I have left the building.

[max]

Very interesting.

Does this take into account multiple horses on the same betting line?

[Raven]

It looks like it does Max, 754 horses on line 5 but only 637 on line 1.

[jose]

Come back Moeee.
You at least make a bit of sense.

[Try Try Again]

Yes, It takes into account all horses on each line of Betting.