One Last Chance

[moeee]

Due to popular demand , I've decided to give this Forum one Final Chance.

I've come up with a plan of attack that makes use of My Extremely HIGH Percentage of winning top selections.
Actually , when I say Plan, there ain't no Plan as yet , but there will be.

What I'm going to do is combine MY assessed Percentage Chance with the Assessed Chance that Joe Public gives the animal.

Its harder to explain than to carry out, so to start , I'll just post my selections and update the results as it goes.

The actual Wagers are human being determined rather than Computer generated rigid Rules.

HORSHAM Race 1

8 STRONG INTENTION $2.40 42.2%
4 SHIRAZ POINT $3.00 33.3%

The Wager will be a win bet on one of the top 2 selections , depending on the Market.

[moeee]

Horsham resulted in a small Profit , but there was almost a washout as the Winner tired badly and just managed to hang on.

The Winner was the 2nd selection and the way the Wager sizes worked turned out quite nice.
I ended up having $60 on the Favourite and $30 on the 2nd selectionn.
Had the Favourite won , I would have finished square.

Looks good the way its going after just the single event.

Here's the rest of the selections for tonight.

WARRAGUL RACE 5

6 HAFREN BALE $3.2 31.0%
2 KINGS PRIDE $4.0 24.9%


WARRAGUL RACE 7

1 NANDO TORRES $3.7 27.0%
2 INVICTUS PHOENIX $4.1 24.3%


WARRAGUL RACE 7

2 BLACK SAHARRAH $4.0 25.3%
4 WHERE'S DEMONICA $4.0 25.0%
8 RYKER BALE $4.0 24.8%

Yes there are 3 selections here.
The human element may decide that this Race is not a viable betting Race.

[springjoker]

Sheesh moeee never seen you bet like that before $90 in one race!!! Couldn't be possible. I only had two bets at Horsham.

Why Not Cooper in the 4th finished 2nd. & race 6 Oh Tee Cee got a ripper check was lucky to stay on it's paws. Good thing beaten!! So small $12 loss today.

[moeee]

Sheesh moeee never seen you bet like that before $90 in one race!!! Couldn't be possible.

Yeah I know.
You wouldn't believe how devastated I would have felt had the Winner not won.

But really, I've had this 2 Grand sitting about for so long , and it really is silly betting $2 and $4.

I'm hoping that I can get a few winners early and be able to get used to what are Large bets for me.
Anyway , the next few Races are a bit more Open and I'll be betting closer to $25 per animal.

[lomaca]

Yeah I know.
You wouldn't believe how devastated I would have felt had the Winner not won.

But really, I've had this 2 Grand sitting about for so long , and it really is silly betting $2 and $4.

I'm hoping that I can get a few winners early and be able to get used to what are Large bets for me.
Anyway , the next few Races are a bit more Open and I'll be betting closer to $25 per animal.race 7 and 8 go with the pinks!

And mate, nobody is gunning for you, there is only one, and you know who that is!

This world is full of fools and idiots and opinions we don't like but fighting them all is fruitless, just bite your tongue like the rest of us and smile!

Cheers and good luck

[moeee]

Just a report on how the Wager went in Race 5 at Warragul.

Both animals were at reasonable Odds.
I had the Winner at Shorter Odds than My 2nd selection , but Joe Public had them vice versa.
When averaging the 2 animals , the Prices ended up about equal , so I had equal wagers on the both of them.

And again, Fortune was with me when My top selection managed to hang on by the barest possible Margin.
I would have swapped My Ticket for Half its face Value instaed of a photo for sure , for sure.

This is very uncomfortable the way I am betting.
Fortunately my wish was granted giving me a bit of a kickstart and I can now afford a large loss , but I'm sure that won't make it feel any better.
Probably a bit like having a rotten tooth pulled at the dentists.

[moeee]

race 7 and 8 go with the pinks!

And mate, nobody is gunning for you, there is only one, and you know who that is!

This world is full of fools and idiots and opinions we don't like but fighting them all is fruitless, just bite your tongue like the rest of us and smile!

Cheers and good luck

I can't go for the Pinks because I have already done my workout, although in Race 8 I have it equal top pick with 2 others.
But I had a look at Race 7 , and it looks like a good night for you as well.
I'm starting to think I may pocket my winnings , because it is obvious I have dismissed Wild Ron for an error.

Thank you for Free advice.
Hopefully I can manage to use it.

And thank you for the tips , they are both good ones, but I still have trouble backing other peoples thoughts.
My trust in humanity is strained to say the least.

And thank you for commenting.
Is very lonely :(

[lomaca]

have dismissed Wild Ron for an error.
Don't take my word for it Moeee it's only an opinion as I always say, but I fancy its chances just the same.

the race seems to be very open, so anyone's guess is as good as yours or mine.

You really should follow the gallops for a change heh?
just for a sea change, may cheer you up?

See how we go.

[moeee]

I would never take your word for it Lomaca.
But you mentioned it , and I had another look , and you were right , it was certainly capable of winning that Race.
And as I started to allow for that fact, it then becomes a Race with 5 Chances.
Very Open as you say.

I stayed out and my nerves stayed relaxed.
My original 2nd selection did get the photo, but I got more out of the Race than backing the Winner.
I think I have recognised that when a Race is open, it means you need to back all the Chances and that leaves no room for Profit.
I guess what I am doing is Dutch Betting.

In Race 8 , I will be staying out, unless something demands that I have a Wager.

Gallops Lomaca?
Too many variables.
Plus - put it this way the only horse I have heard of is Black Caviar.
Too much work needed to get going when on Greyhounds I can almost name every reasonable animal running.
I could, only my memory is crap.

[lomaca]

Gallops Lomaca?
Too many variables.
Plus - put it this way the only horse I have heard of is Black Caviar.
Too much work needed to get going when on Greyhounds I can almost name every reasonable animal running.
I could, only my memory is crap.I know what you mean about gallops but I got my rating down to a pat as far as humanly possible, and making good money.

But I find the dogs more interesting and simpler, maybe I'm wrong.

Can't say I know any dog or horse by name, that's not how I work, although a good friend of mine who died early in life had some very good dogs racing and his son is still a trainer.

I don't keep in contact with him I was a friend of his father, he has only a few dogs in training, two are good, I follow them.

Cheers

[moeee]

Just a comment Lomaca.
That winning time of 26.60 of Race 8 was a very very slow time.
The Pink was travelling well when it went down and would easily have beaten that time.

But Welcome to the perils and pitfalls of Greyhound Racing.
Did you realize a Greyhound has a brain about the size of a walnut?
Thats what I believe anyway.
Sometimes I think we need to have a similar sized brain to persevere :(

I'm off to download tomorrows Fields.
Good night.

[lomaca]

I'm off to download tomorrows Fields.
Good night.download from where if I may ask?

size of a walnut you say?
that beats mine by a peanut.

[moeee]

Can't say I know any dog or horse by name, that's not how I work

I just read this as I was departing.
Now I understand why you get defensive when I ask you how you picked an animal.
You have a mathematical system that is number crunching and doesn't rate the race for the individual event it is and that has its own individual peculiarities.
Your method is different to mine.

Bottom Line hey Lomaca!!
Who cares how or why , but if the bottom Line is happening , then thats pretty much all that matters.

What you may need to do Lomaca is study very carefully the Links between your winners and the types of Races they are mainly winning.

Catch you tomorrow hopefully.

[moeee]

download from where if I may ask?

The Format of the Fields I download is in Excel Format , and I then copy and paste the races that I need into my Spreadsheet.
It just saves lots of typing.

Cheers.


EDIT:
Try here http://www.grv.org.au/ClientLogin.aspx

Its Free to register.
Have a read of the page, may be useful, or not.

[moeee]

The Format of the Fields I download is in Excel Format , and I then copy and paste the races that I need into my Spreadsheet.
It just saves lots of typing.

Its Free to register.
Have a read of the page, may be useful, or not.

http://www.grv.org.au/
Go here and along the top there is a Link called "Client Login"
Click on that.

[moeee]

I've done a couple of Races for The Meadows this afternoon, but I still haven't worked out how to wager.
The Races are too open , and I find to be sure of backing the winner , too many need to be included, and the profit margin is either too small , or non existant.

Heres the Markets anyway in case there is something at Huge Overs.

The MEADOWS Race 3

4 KID CUDI $4.1
5 SISCO DIAMOND $4.5
6 MYSTERIOUS LOLA $6.2
1 GOTTA HOPE $6.6
8 MR. CHAUVINIST $10


The MEADOWS Race 4

1 ARAZI $4.1
8 OUR CORALIE $6.9
3 ROMANTIC ACE $7.7
7 PEDRO SANCHEZ $8
4 JULIET BALE $8.7

[moeee]

Heres The MEADOWS Race 6

4 FULL CIRCLE $3.2
1 WONGAWILLI SIMON $3.6
2 SHAIANE BALE $3.6
7 PARIS MONTANA $7.5

Again , simply too many chances to put 'em all in , but too nerve shaking to leave any out.
It would be all right if they were all like 10 to 1 shots , but they ain't.

[moeee]

And MEADOWS Race 7 proving difficult to narrow down as well

1 DYNA DEARY $4.6
3 SMOKIN' GONZALES $5.1
2 ANDREW'S COURAGE $5.7
8 PURE SHOW $6.5

[moeee]

I've done a couple of Races for The Meadows this afternoon, but I still haven't worked out how to wager.
The Races are too open , and I find to be sure of backing the winner , too many need to be included, and the profit margin is either too small , or non existant.

The MEADOWS Race 3

4 KID CUDI $4.1
5 SISCO DIAMOND $4.5
6 MYSTERIOUS LOLA $6.2
1 GOTTA HOPE $6.6
8 MR. CHAUVINIST $10


I have a bit of a clue how it works now.

Originally I suggested to only back the top 2 selections.
Well that is proving to be a good suggestion, as there has yet to be a loser in 5 races doing that.
But I have found that it may be much more beneficial to perhaps only back the animal that is returning the reasonable Profit.
This gets back to the Overlay idea.

I'm thinking to back up to 2 animals that are returning Overlays or stay out.

[moeee]

The MEADOWS Race 9

1 DRIPSTONE $2.5
4 OKAY LANKAN $5.8
6 JUSTIN BALE $6.4
2 ELITE CITY $7.1
7 SAME OPINION $7.8

I'll be having a bit of a dip at the top selection here.

[moeee]

A whitewash at The Meadows.

BALLARAT Race 5

7 PARKER BALE $3
5 SELSI FLYER $3.7
2 WHERE'S TURNER $5.1
3 BUZZ $7.7
4 NIRRA MEG $13

One of the top 2 selections will win.
But the check is also very well drawn with the Vacant Box inside it and I am tempted to stay out.
I need to learn to recognize right situations and wrong situations.
I suppose if there is any doubt , then it must be a wrong situation.
The only trouble is , I always have doubt , and I'll never get a bet on thinking like that.

[jose]

Just noticed this thread.
Good to have you back already.
Hang in there Moeee.

[moeee]

Just noticed this thread.
Good to have you back already.
Hang in there Moeee.

I'm only back because of you Jose :)
Your moral support was overwhelming and I had to succumb.

[moeee]

BALLARAT Race 6

7 OH WATTA NITE $2
6 FIERCE WEETBIX $3.4
3 CHARLIE CHA CHA $9.7
8 BIG GALOOT $10.5

Only the 2 winning Chances here , but I won't be able to wager because the size would make me way over my comfort zone, and I really don't like that , especially after having a poor day today.

[moeee]

Well I gave back my headstart so its all square again.

WARRAGUL Race 6

8 HOODED ALBY $3.1
7 QUADRAJET $4.8
2 PET SOUNDS $5.3
5 GRIMBY LIAM $7.2
3 ULTRA SPIN $7.2

[moeee]

WARRAGUL Race 8

3 STRAWBERRY ROSE $3.1
5 DAYS OF STEAM $4.3
7 COSMIC SNOW $6.6
2 KID FREDDIE $6.9
8 POWER FULL $7

[moeee]

WARRAGUL Race 10

7 DEVINE RISE $3.1
3 SPEED PLAY $4.8
5 EVERGLEAM $5.9
1 PARTO'S SIMBA $6
6 PURE INK $7.4

[moeee]

WARRAGUL Race 6

8 HOODED ALBY $3.1


Well the top selection won here but I didn't fancy taking the Odds On that was available so I stayed out.

Funny how you hate when you don't back'em and they get up , yet when they go down and you don't back'em , its easily forgotten.

[moeee]

WARRAGUL Race 8

3 STRAWBERRY ROSE $3.1


Well I had no problem getting good Odds about this top selectiom, but unfortunately the winner decided to begin quickly and safely today , and that was that.
And it seems I was the only Punter who didn't back it.

[moeee]

I've just noticed that the Winner is so much easier to find after the Race.
I'm not quite sure how to apply this new found knowledge though :(

[springjoker]

A battling evening on the punt, down early, bounced back with several winning bets at Sandown Aston Susie, Yowyeh, Symmetry, Easy Peasy, then a few losses. Overall a small loss for the day. Account protected though, so that's a plus.


Traralgon Cup tomorrow moeee are you going to do a market on that race ?

[moeee]

I ended up almost $100 up.
Missed out a collect of $50 in the last in the photo.

Sure I'll be doing Traralgon.
But hasn't it got El Grand Senor in it?

[springjoker]

It has moeee but he is beatable. Maybe trifectas might be the way to go El Grande & Radley to win with a few to run second and third.