Barny
30th June 2011, 04:23 PM
Seriously trying to put a plan together here
1) For whatever reason the PP prices have to be seriously taken into account, especially when horses start shorter than their PP price.
2) Fitness is paramount .. How you can tell how fit a horse is in its first up run and second run from a spell is beyond me .. if anyone can help here Id be grateful. But 3rd up and on, one can have a look at whether the horse is continuing to go up in distance which may indicate the trainer thinks the best is yet to come .. one can look at its last start which is an important indicator.
3) Average prizemoney seems to be another good indicator.
4) Strike Rate as a percentage of the horses starts (NOT compared to the rest of the field), whether its Win or Place, is I believe a very, very good indicator. If this is the base of your system, then you can leave out things like track condition, distance, days between runs, course, etc, etc, etc .. because you are backing the horse on the premise that the trainer has got it right in the past .. some filters though could include a minimum number of wins required, how many of its wins were as a 2 y/o or early 3 y/o (might have had the guts raced out of it) or dismissing those wins altogether, age, sex, number of starts, average prizemoney, where the horse is trained and usually races (NZ, interstate??).
5) Horses backing up quickly if they won or ran well last start is a good indicator.
6) Somehow get the best price available .. youll struggle to win on the tote.
7) Minimum price, say $ 4.00 ?????
8) Stick with your plan and accept you are going to have a decent run of outs. Manage your money and keep records.
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What I would disregard (not necessarily eliminate)
1) c and d coz it reduces the odds
2) A horse who ran really well in better class last start. Odds too short and you may have missed the boat .. why would the trainer drop it back in class?
3) Barrier considerations
4) Weight considerations .. how can a kilo or two be of any measurable significance? Most of the winners come from the top weighted horses.
5) Days between runs .. its another fallacy
1) For whatever reason the PP prices have to be seriously taken into account, especially when horses start shorter than their PP price.
2) Fitness is paramount .. How you can tell how fit a horse is in its first up run and second run from a spell is beyond me .. if anyone can help here Id be grateful. But 3rd up and on, one can have a look at whether the horse is continuing to go up in distance which may indicate the trainer thinks the best is yet to come .. one can look at its last start which is an important indicator.
3) Average prizemoney seems to be another good indicator.
4) Strike Rate as a percentage of the horses starts (NOT compared to the rest of the field), whether its Win or Place, is I believe a very, very good indicator. If this is the base of your system, then you can leave out things like track condition, distance, days between runs, course, etc, etc, etc .. because you are backing the horse on the premise that the trainer has got it right in the past .. some filters though could include a minimum number of wins required, how many of its wins were as a 2 y/o or early 3 y/o (might have had the guts raced out of it) or dismissing those wins altogether, age, sex, number of starts, average prizemoney, where the horse is trained and usually races (NZ, interstate??).
5) Horses backing up quickly if they won or ran well last start is a good indicator.
6) Somehow get the best price available .. youll struggle to win on the tote.
7) Minimum price, say $ 4.00 ?????
8) Stick with your plan and accept you are going to have a decent run of outs. Manage your money and keep records.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p> </o:p>
What I would disregard (not necessarily eliminate)
1) c and d coz it reduces the odds
2) A horse who ran really well in better class last start. Odds too short and you may have missed the boat .. why would the trainer drop it back in class?
3) Barrier considerations
4) Weight considerations .. how can a kilo or two be of any measurable significance? Most of the winners come from the top weighted horses.
5) Days between runs .. its another fallacy